Axios Hill Leaders

September 26, 2025
The government looks on track for a shutdown next week. 979 words, 3.5 minutes.
- šŖ Schumer's war room
- š° Sneaky shutdown threat
- šø Hill aides sweat
šØ Situational awareness: Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are both doing NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday.
- Thune thinks there are "off-ramps" to a government shutdown, but Democrats will have to "dial back" their demands, he told AP. Unless Dems change course, "we're probably plunging forward toward the shutdown."
1 big thing: šŖ Schumer's war room
Schumer and his staff are closely coordinating their government shutdown strategy with outside liberal groups, we have learned.
Why it matters: The same groups slammed Schumer earlier this year for caving on government funding. This time, the Democratic leader is playing to his base.
- Multiple progressive groups told us they've had weekly meetings and conversations with Schumer and his team over the last two months.
- In the private talks, grassroots leaders have stressed the need for Schumer and Democrats to fight harder against President Trump and Republicans.
- Backing down and helping fund the government, like Schumer did in March, is unacceptable, the groups have told his team.
Zoom in: The organizations working closely with Schumer and his aides include MoveOn, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and several unions, people familiar said.
- "There has been more proactive communication from leadership to I would just call it the outside ecosystem," said Joel Payne, MoveOn's chief communications officer.
- "The battle lines that the grassroots of the party is drawing for the grasstops leadership is, hey, you've got to be willing to fight."
The big picture: One senior leader from a top grassroots organization told us they have been leveraging the upcoming nationwide No Kings protest next month in conversations with the Schumer team.
- "You can either be a part of this movement or be irrelevant to it," the source said they told Schumer's team.
Between the lines: Schumer's leadership team established a war room email list with outside groups, strategists and influencers in which they share talking points and social media posts to amplify.
- "Democrats do NOT want a shutdown," read the talking points in a recent message from the war room.
- Schumer's team is asking the groups to find "storytellers" who can talk about the real-life impacts of Medicaid cuts and expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits, according to a senior leader at a Democratic-aligned group.
- "They're treating it like a campaign. ... All those things didn't happen last time because maybe Democrats on Capitol Hill didn't feel like the time was right for a fight," the source said. "Or maybe they just didn't realize this was gonna irk the grassroots that much."
ā Stephen Neukam and Holly Otterbein
2. š° Sneaky shutdown threat
A potential government shutdown next week will complicate some big-dollar destination fundraisers next weekend.
Why it matters: Venues are booked, senators are scheduled and lobbyists have RSVP'd. But optically, it's hard for lawmakers to duck out of town to fill their coffers if Congress hasn't come to an agreement on how to fund the government.
- In the 2013 government shutdown, Republicans and Democrats canceled both in-town and destination fundraisers.
Zoom in: For the National Republican Senatorial Committee, an expected shutdown could not come at a worse time.
- They are scheduled to gather next weekend at Sea Island, Georgia, for one of their two big annual retreats. A handful of senators, including NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.), are scheduled to attend.
- Democrats also have destination fundraisers planned. A leadership PAC aligned with Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.) is preparing to host Assistant Democratic Leader Joe Neguse (Colo.), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene (Wash.) and other lawmakers in Ventura County, California.
What they're saying: "This event has been planned for months, but the congressman is prepared to immediately return to Washington if there's any opportunity to end the Republicans' government shutdown on terms that put working families first," said Eduardo Carrizosa, spokesperson for Carbajal.
- "Congressman Carbajal's top priority will always be fighting for his constituents' best interests."
- Registered guests for the GOP extravaganza in Sea Island expect it to go forward, but maybe with fewer senators in attendance.
- An NRSC spokesperson declined to comment.
Zoom out: On long weekends, lawmakers and lobbyists usually have invites to leave town for a destination fundraiser, hosted by a leadership PAC, a party committee or just a campaign.
- Those entities can accept donations from corporate PACs, which are typically delivered by the lobbyists who represent them.
- It's a win-win for both lobbyists and lawmakers. Lawmakers collect checks for either their own PAC or one of their friends' PACs. Lobbyists get a resort weekend with lawmakers, top aides and sometimes their families.
Between the lines: Transportation, hotels and meals can be expensed. Political donations cannot.
- Some lobbyists donate from their own personal savings. Others deliver a check from their company's PAC.
ā Hans Nichols
3. šø Hill aides sweat
Congressional staffers are starting to get nervous about missing paychecks if the government shuts down, aides are telling us.
Why it matters: Lawmakers automatically get paid during a shutdown. Their aides don't.
- Congress hasn't passed a legislative branch appropriations bill, so congressional employees won't be spared in any shutdown.
- Staffers will receive back pay when the government reopens, but it could be quite painful for the aides who help run Congress.
Between the lines: The House is paid monthly.
- The Senate is on a bimonthly schedule, meaning Senate staffers could miss a paycheck in mid-October if the government shuts down.
- The House's payday is Oct. 31.
- Junior staffers, who are more likely to live paycheck to paycheck, would be expected to feel the effects most.
The bottom line: The Senate and congressional federal credit unions have offered interest-free loans during past shutdowns.
- But not every staffer belongs to them.
- For the U.S. Senate Federal Credit Union, the maximum loan amount is $5,000.
ā Hans Nichols
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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