Axios Hill Leaders

October 17, 2025
Friday's here. The government's still shut down. 910 words, 3.5 minutes.
- ๐ช Schumer's tightening grip
- ๐ฐ Dems' Q3 haul
- ๐ค AI's creeping influence
- ๐ Trump's kingmaker reminder
๐จ Situational awareness: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) sent a letter to the White House demanding publication of the September employment report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due on Oct. 29, Axios scooped today.
1 big thing: ๐ช Schumer's tightening grip
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer helped draw the battle lines over the shutdown. Now he's using them to strengthen his position as the leader of the often-divided Democratic caucus.
Why it matters: His colleagues are taking notice.
- ๐ซก Progressives and moderates alike have remained united behind Schumer's plan to reject any GOP funding plan that doesn't include concessions on health care. And they are giving him high praise.
- For a leader who faced internal and external criticism over his decision seven months ago to help Republicans fund the government, it's a marked change.
๐ข What they're saying: Schumer "understands the urgency of this moment," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told us.
- "He's got a very hard job, but he's been able to effectively convey to our members how serious this moment is," said Murphy, who was among those who questioned Schumer's tactics in March.
- "The fact that we've had [several] votes in a row and we have stayed consistent, I think speaks for itself," Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) told us yesterday, when Democrats defeated a 10th GOP effort to pass a short-term spending bill.
- ๐ฅฎ "The proof is in the pudding," Slotkin said.
Zoom out: Since the shutdown began more than two weeks ago, Schumer has held together a caucus that often fractures along ideological lines.
- Preventing health insurance premiums from skyrocketing has become a rallying cry for Democrats, who are demanding that the GOP extend expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits.
- The unity has stymied the Republican attack plan, which predicted that Democrats โ particularly moderates โ would eventually fold under the pressure of a prolonged shutdown.
- Schumer can't lose any more than seven of his caucus members. So far, only three moderates have broken ranks to vote for the GOP funding bill.
โย Stephen Neukam
2. ๐ฐ Dems' Q3 haul

Fundraising last quarter by Democratic Senate candidates shows major enthusiasm on their side.
Why it matters: Big quarterly hauls don't always translate into electoral victories, but they do help gauge energy. And Democrats are clearly tapping into a motivated base โ and banking big cash advantages for next year.
- Fundraising directly to a candidate's primary account, however, is not the full picture of a campaign's might.
๐ย Between the lines: Campaigns are increasingly relying on joint fundraising committees and outside super PACs for major spending.
- Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), for example, raked in millions in Q3 through his multiple joint fundraising committees โ separate from his principal campaign account featured in the chart.
- That money can also be spent on ads at the lower, candidate rate as he fends off a double primary challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas).
- Candidates like Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) also have joint fundraising committees.
๐ What to watch: Gov. Janet Mills' (D-Maine) decision to jump into the Maine race just this week means she does not have a Q3 filing, though her campaign announced she raised $1 million in the first 24 hours of her campaign.
โ Stef Kight
3. ๐ค AI's creeping influence
The National Republican Senatorial Committee posted an AI-doctored video today that features Schumer saying โ with a grin โ that "every day gets better" for Democrats during the shutdown.
- The quote is real. But he never said it on camera.
Why it matters: There's a lot more of this coming fast in the AI era.
๐ญ Our thought bubble: No laws ban what the NRSC did here, though there is bipartisan support for the type of watermarking seen in the bottom right corner of the video.
- If this were an ad, the tiny amount of FEC regulation around digital election advertising would not have banned this sort of thing.
- It marks a new normal in how organizations are willing to use AI to spread their messages.
โ Ashley Gold
4. ๐ Trump's kingmaker reminder
President Trump sent wayward Republicans a loud message last week: Cross me at your own peril.
Why it matters: Trump's eleventh-hour decision to endorse Republican Matt Van Epps in a contested Tennessee House primary โ which vaulted Van Epps to a lopsided win โ showed he has the power to decide GOP primaries with a single post on his Truth Social account.
- โ The president endorsed Van Epps just four days before the primary โ a risky move, given that his advisers had just reviewed polling showing Van Epps trailing rival Republican Jody Barrett by 4 percentage points.
It paid off. Van Epps ended up winning by 26 points after Trump's endorsement became the centerpiece of his final days of campaigning.
- ๐บ A pro-Van Epps super PAC began running a TV ad promoting Trump's endorsement the day after the president announced it.
The intrigue: Trump's decision to wade into the primary shows he is willing to engage in seriously contested GOP nomination fights.
- So far, the president has only announced his opposition to one Republican member of Congress โ Rep. Thomas Massie. The Kentucky lawmaker is soliciting signatures on a discharge petition to unseal files related to the government's Jeffrey Epstein probe.
- But with filing deadlines still open, Trump could conceivably jump into other primaries and punish Republicans who defy him.
โ Alex Isenstadt
This newsletter was edited by Kathleen Hunter and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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