House Majority Leader Steve Scalise won't talk about defeat, even as outside GOP allies are pulling money anyway.

Why it matters: Scalise is asking voters to believe what he's saying and doing, not what his party is doing or where it's spending.

• "If it's some horrible cycle for Republicans, then why am I here?" Scalise told supporters last week at a Las Vegas event for Republican Marty O'Donnell, who's challenging Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.).
• "This is a winnable race," Scalise said.
• But MAGA Inc., a super PAC allied with President Trump, pulled nearly $1 million in advertising from the race last week.

The big picture: House Democrats lead the generic ballot by eight points in new Washington Post-ABC polling. Trump's approval is at a record low of 31% (Reuters/Ipsos) and 72% say the country is on the wrong track (Post/ABC).

• Scalise is making 56 campaign stops between August and Election Day as part of what he's dubbed the "Save America Tour," complete with T-shirts featuring a map of his travels.
• "This is like better than a rock band," Scalise told us during an in-flight interview.

Scalise identified 35 competitive districts, including 15 Democratic-held seats Republicans believe they have a chance to flip.

• He pointed to Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R-Pa.) and Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) as races he'll watch closely as bellwethers for how the night could unfold.
• The pro-Scalise super PAC Save American Freedom is also launching a $3.5 million get-out-the-vote and digital advertising blitz to help 52 House Republicans, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports.
• Among the Republicans benefiting are Reps. Brad Finstad (R-Minn.), Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Rob Wittman (R-Va.), along with GOP candidates Ralph Alvarado (KY-6), Alex Mealer (TX-9) and Jenny Costa Honeycutt (SC-1).

The intrigue: The GOP's pullback in some districts has fueled speculation Republicans are giving up on the House to save the Senate. But Scalise argued it will still benefit his members.

• He pointed to Iowa, where the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC allied with House Republicans, pulled financial support from Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks' district. Senate Republicans subsequently bought the airtime for Ashley Hinson.
• "You actually get a three for one," Scalise said, arguing that shifting the ad time to Hinson will benefit Miller-Meeks, Rep. Zach Nunn and the Republican running to succeed Hinson in her House district.
• "You're going to probably see that in some other areas too," Scalise said. He pointed to Senate races in North Carolina and Texas, where he acknowledged "challenges" at the top of the ticket.

The bottom line: Scalise repeatedly declined to say whether he would endorse House Speaker Mike Johnson for minority leader or consider running himself if Republicans lose the majority.

• "Anybody who's thinking about planning for us losing is in the wrong business," Scalise told us.

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One issue is breaking through even among the most loyal Republican supporters: gas prices.

Why it matters: Republicans promised to slash gas prices. The Iran war sent them soaring, up 37% since President Trump took office.

• Republicans call it temporary. There are limits to what voters will accept.
• On recent campaign trips where we joined Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), gas prices were the most frequent concern raised at events.
• These events drew GOP donors, activists and supporters who turned out to help Republicans win in November — not undecided voters.

Zoom in: The first question Scalise fielded at a Nevada campaign event for O'Donnell was about high gas prices.

• "Everyone's always worried about gas prices," the attendee said, asking whether Republicans could do more to promote Trump's efforts to expand domestic energy production.
• Another attendee pointed to the gas-price difference between California and Oregon on a recent trip, and asked whether Congress could intervene to ease state restrictions.
• Scalise acknowledged the impact of the Iran war on gas prices — saying they'd fall once it's resolved — but blamed Democratic energy policies for making the U.S. more vulnerable to rising costs.

Zoom out: Emmer faced similar concerns during a recent campaign trip through North Carolina and Virginia.

• "Four-dollar gas, five-dollar diesel, six-dollar diesel, totally unacceptable," Emmer told supporters at a North Carolina fundraiser. "But it ain't enough to make me vote for communists."
• Democrats "are talking about affordability. That's the problem. We need to be sensitive to the fact that gas and diesel are way up. Just sensitive to it because people are struggling," he told us in an interview.

The big picture: Republican candidates are feeling the pressure too.

• Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton privately blamed the Iran war and gas prices for his campaign struggles, according to audio we scooped earlier in October.
• "It's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel," Paxton told donors at a closed-door fundraiser last month, calling affordability "by far our biggest problem."

The bottom line: "I don't think gaslighting works," House GOP conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) told us in an interview last month.

• "I think if you meet voters where they're at and you have an honest conversation with them ... that's pretty refreshing to them."

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