Inside the GOP's fight to avoid a House wipeout
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House Majority Leader Steve Scalise speaks at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Sept. 9. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise won't talk about defeat, even as his outside GOP allies are pulling money anyway.
Why it matters: Republicans face brutal political headwinds, but Scalise (R-La.) stands out from his fellow leaders for refusing to even contemplate losing the House.
Zoom in: At an event for Republican Marty O'Donnell, who's challenging Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), Scalise argued that his presence in the district was evidence Republicans are still on offense.
- "If it's some horrible cycle for Republicans, then why am I here?" Scalise told supporters at a Las Vegas country club Thursday.
- "This is a winnable race," he said. But MAGA Inc., a super PAC allied with President Trump, pulled nearly $1 million in advertising from the race last week.
The big picture: House Democrats lead the generic ballot by eight points in new Washington Post-ABC polling. Trump's approval is at a record low of 31% (Reuters/Ipsos) and 72% say the country is on the wrong track (Post/ABC).
- He's making 56 campaign stops between August and Election Day as part of what he's dubbed the "Save America Tour," complete with T-shirts featuring a map of his travels.
- "This is like better than a rock band," Scalise told Axios during an in-flight interview while campaigning in Arizona and Nevada last week.
Scalise identified 35 competitive districts, including 15 Democratic-held seats Republicans believe they have a chance to flip.
- He pointed to Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) and Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) as races he'll watch closely as bellwethers for how the night could unfold.
- The pro-Scalise super PAC Save American Freedom is also launching a $3.5 million get-out-the-vote and digital advertising blitz to help 52 House Republicans, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports.
- Among the Republicans benefiting are Reps. Brad Finstad (R-Minn.), Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Rob Wittman (R-Va.), along with GOP candidates Ralph Alvarado (KY-6), Alex Mealer (TX-9) and Jenny Costa Honeycutt (S.C.-1).
The intrigue: The GOP's pullback in some districts has fueled speculation that Republicans are giving up on the House to save the Senate. But Scalise argued it will still benefit his members.
- He pointed to Iowa, where the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC allied with House Republicans, pulled financial support from Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks' district. Senate Republicans subsequently bought the airtime for Ashley Hinson.
- "You actually get a three for one," Scalise said, arguing that shifting the ad time to Hinson will benefit Miller-Meeks, Rep. Zach Nunn and the Republican running to succeed Hinson in her House district.
- "You're going to probably see that in some other areas too," Scalise said. He pointed to Senate races in North Carolina and Texas, where he acknowledged "challenges" at the top of the ticket.
The bottom line: Scalise isn't ready to look beyond Election Day, even as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) publicly weighed in on that very scenario last week.
- Johnson said he intends to remain the top House Republican even if Democrats win the majority. The race for the top job could become a three-way fight among Johnson, Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).
- Scalise repeatedly declined to say whether he would endorse Johnson for minority leader or consider running himself.
- "Anybody who's thinking about planning for us losing is in the wrong business," Scalise told Axios.
