DORAL, Fla. — President Trump's top advisers are urging House Republicans to turn the 2026 midterms into a choice election — and hammer Democrats on taxes, crime and border security.

Why it matters: Midterm elections are almost always referendums on the president and the party in power.

• But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Trump are looking to buck history and retain the House by focusing on the Democrats' national brand, with 52% of voters viewing the Democratic Party unfavorably.

🚘 Driving the news: At the House GOP retreat in sunny Doral, Florida, (high 84°) White House deputy chief of staff James Blair told lawmakers to stop emphasizing "mass deportations," we scooped earlier.

• Mass deportations were central to the GOP's 2024 campaign message, so Blair's advice captured attention. Instead, he told lawmakers, focus on deporting violent offenders.
• The emerging strategy: remind voters of Democrats' Biden-era positions on crime, cashless bail and open borders, according to people familiar with the matter.

Zoom in: Blair was on a closed-door panel with Chris LaCivita, Trump's 2024 co-campaign manager, and Chris Winkelman, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside super PAC associated with Johnson.

• The panelists, led by National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson, reminded members of the GOP's unprecedented cash advantage.
• In a cycle with a small map, the party with stronger organization and clearer lines of control has the edge, the panelists said.
• 🤔 Blair also told GOP lawmakers to remember how Trump won in 2024. He challenged conventional wisdom: Don't feed into Democratic talking points, he said.

Zoom out: History is not on the GOP's side this November.

• 🤕 Republicans lost 41 House seats in Trump's first midterm. President Obama's Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, the first midterm after he was elected.
• 👟 Lawmakers in both parties are fleeing Congress at a record rate, with 34 Republicans and 21 Democrats planning to leave the House at the end of this Congress.
• Trump is also a drag on Republicans as his favorability rating remains well underwater, with his approval rating in the low 40s.

Historically, the party with more departures tends to lose seats, and often the majority.

• But with a small map — around two dozen seats in toss-up districts — Democrats would need to outperform Vice President Harris by 3% to win the majority.

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— Kate Santaliz, Marc Caputo and Hans Nichols

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has privately indicated interest in a second term running Senate Democrats' campaign arm in 2028, multiple sources tell us.

Why it matters: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Gillibrand have tried to recruit their way out of a bad map — and are convinced they are within striking distance of the majority.

• 🗺️ The map doesn't get much better for Democrats in 2028, but it will give the two New Yorkers another shot at winning 51 seats — or 50 if they take back the White House.

The big picture: Under Gillibrand, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has landed multiple top-choice candidates who have boosted those prospects.

• Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) top their list of recruiting wins.
• Schumer told us earlier this year that his party will win in those four states in November, while also protecting Sen. Jon Ossoff's (D-Ga.) seat.

💥 Yes, but: Gillibrand's tenure has also seen the DSCC clash with the party's base over leadership's public support for candidates running against progressive challengers.

• The dynamic is most prominent in Maine, where Gillibrand and Schumer are backing Mills, but the left is lining up behind progressive Democrat Graham Platner.

The bottom line: Democrats' success in the midterms will likely help determine whether Gillibrand and other Democratic leaders can make a compelling case to hold on to power.

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— Stephen Neukam

DORAL, Fla. — For Mike Johnson, reconciliation 2.0 may not be as "big," but it will be "just as beautiful."

Why it matters: Some House Republicans are all in on trying to muscle through one more major bill this year. A sizable bloc, however, is deeply skeptical they have the time, or the unity, to get it done.

• ❤️ "I'd love to do a second reconciliation bill, but I'd also love to be Brad Pitt," said House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.), who has cast doubt for weeks about the viability of another mega-bill getting through.
• "It won't be as big, but it can be just as beautiful," Johnson said in response.

Driving the news: Johnson described a large whiteboard with a Venn diagram representing the conference's seven primary caucuses. His goal: find "where all those circles join in the middle."

• In an afternoon meeting with other GOP leaders, Johnson spoke about working with members to narrow down the list, according to a source in the room.
• "In concept, we're there," House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told reporters after a policy listening session.

😮 The intrigue: Last night, Trump signaled he wants nothing else from Congress this year (besides the SAVE America Act). There was no mention of reconciliation 2.0.

• ✍️ But Trump is adamant about signing the SAVE America Act into law, with some senators suggesting the budget reconciliation process, which only requires 50 votes, is the best way to pass it out of the Senate.

While that option was discussed in the Senate GOP's weekly lunch, leaders have expressed skepticism that it can survive procedural challenges.

• Instead, they are likely to hold a procedural vote next week on the bill that would require a 60-vote threshold to proceed. It's expected to fail.

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— Kate Santaliz