Senate Majority Leader John Thune is pulling off something today's Republicans rarely attempt: telling President Trump "no."

Why it matters: Pressure from Trump and the MAGA base is piling up on Thune, especially over a voter ID bill, but he has an important insurance policy: GOP senators have his back.

• 💪 "I think he's got strong support. I read all the stories, but I think mostly that's made up by reporters," Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) told us.
• "Leaders absorb some of the punishment, but I think he's doing great. No one could do a better job than he is right now," Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) told us.
• "His cred in the conference has never been stronger," Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told us.

🔥 Catch up quick: Trump's frustration with Thune over the inability to pass the SAVE America Act or nuke the filibuster is, again, bubbling over.

• "Thune should not allow the United States Senate to 'leave town' until it passes The Save America Act or, far better still, TERMINATES THE FILIBUSTER," Trump demanded on Truth Social this morning.
• 🧮 Thune has snapped back, reiterating that it is a matter of math. There are not enough votes to pass SAVE, end the filibuster or justify canceling the August recess.
• "Give me a rationale or a path to getting success, staying here through the month of August," Thune told reporters today about the calls from Trump and a few GOP senators to cancel recess to pass SAVE. "You could stay here til Christmas."

👀 What to watch: Trump has not called for Thune's ouster. He even told reporters today that their relationship is "fine." But the building anger has fueled widespread speculation in D.C. that the president could eventually go there.

• Even if he does, it would not carry the same weight as a threat to Speaker Mike Johnson's leadership in the House.
• For one, Senate leadership elections are conducted by private ballot, giving more cover to senators who may not want to publicly cross Trump.

👂 What we're hearing: Many Republican senators are quick to share their support for Thune behind closed doors, even if not all are willing to publicly do so right now.

• Thune "is not in jeopardy," a GOP senator told us, requesting anonymity to speak candidly. "He is not the problem."

"We have a bunch of people across Capitol Hill that are obsessed with social media fame," another senator told us, referring to those questioning Thune's leadership.

• Senior GOP aides for other senators also tell us the problem is really "squeaky wheels" getting more attention and that the situation could ultimately benefit Thune within the conference.

The other side: A conservative corner of the conference is certainly growing frustrated with Thune.

• ⛱️ Seven senators are now calling to delay the August recess until SAVE is passed: Mike Lee (R-Utah), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Ashley Moody (R-Fla), Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) and Darline Graham (R-S.C.)
• But even some of them admit Thune's leadership is not at stake.
• "I wouldn't say that, because his job lies with us," Tuberville said when asked about any risk to Thune's position as leader. "But a lot of people are getting a little bit frustrated."

The bottom line: "I've been somewhat disappointed more Republican senators haven't been bold enough to speak out," Cramer said.

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— Stef W. Kight

The conservative Club for Growth is wading into Florida's wildest GOP primary with a massive $1.1 million ad buy to crush one of its biggest foes: former Rep. Chris Collins.

Why it matters: It's the club's own ABC strategy: "Anybody but Chris."

• 🗳️ In a conservative House district with 10 Republican candidates, including two former members of Congress from other states, the ads won't guarantee that Collins goes down in the Aug. 18 primary.
• But they certainly will make his return to Congress much more challenging.

Zoom in: The 30-second club ad is scheduled to run on broadcast, Fox News, satellite and streaming services, starting tomorrow, saturating the airwaves in the primary's final three weeks.

• Collins once represented a New York congressional district but resigned his seat in 2019 after his federal conviction for insider trading. President Trump pardoned him in 2020, and he relocated to Southwest Florida.
• Collins, who was the first Republican to advertise on TV in the race, touts his record on immigration.
• But the new ad from the club's Win It Back PAC is taking direct aim at that message, accusing him of being too soft on illegal immigration.

🌎 Zoom out: The club has a long memory.

• Collins ran afoul of the Club for Growth when he served in Congress, earning a low rating on its scorecard for votes that it considered insufficiently conservative.
• "He is a 49% on our scorecard, the bottom of the barrel in terms of ideology," a club operative told us.

✏️ Go deeper: State legislators redrew Florida's 19th House District this year. It's being vacated by Rep. Byron Donalds, the odds-on favorite to win Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary.

• Former lawmaker Madison Cawthorn, who represented a North Carolina U.S. House district, is also running in the carpetbagger primary to succeed Donalds.
• Other candidates in the Fort Myers-based district are Greg "Tex" Bukowski, Ola Hawatmeh, Catalina Lauf, Jim Oberweis, Mike Pedersen, Linda J. Sawyer, Jim Schwartzel and John Strand.

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— Marc Caputo