House Speaker Mike Johnson won a game of brinksmanship with his own party on budget reconciliation. Now he's prepared to do the same with Democrats on government funding, lawmakers and aides tell us.

Why it matters: House Republicans are increasingly confident they can avoid a government shutdown without any Democratic support.

• "I think it demonstrated we can do things on our own," House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters today.
• Going alone would be unprecedented but not impossible. The current funding bill runs through March 14.

🙏 Johnson will need strong buy-in from the White House that President Trump will back his approach.

• After a White House meeting today, Johnson said a spending stopgap is "becoming inevitable."

Between the lines: The appropriation process has been complicated by Elon Musk's and DOGE's efforts to cut money that Congress has obligated to departments and agencies.

• That's caused a Democratic uproar and raised the possibility they won't give Republicans the votes they could need to keep the government open.
• But Johnson said today Republicans shouldn't expect to get DOGE cuts written into a spending stopgap.
• The speaker told reporters the "most reasonable" thing is to avoid a shutdown by pursuing a "clean" CR.

Zoom in: House and Senate GOP leaders met with their appropriators this morning to discuss their next steps.

• Republicans are united, for now, on a single point: they will not give in to Democratic demands to block Musk's cost-cutting efforts.
• "The Democrats have had completely unreasonable conditions assigned to this," Johnson said. "They want us to limit the power of the executive branch."
• "That's a no-go," Cole said. "We're not moving."

Share this story

— Hans Nichols

Johnson is moving toward the Senate on two key issues: Making Trump's tax cuts permanent and counting the cost of extending them at zero.

Why it matters: The White House and Senate have been pressing the House to adopt a "current policy baseline" — which means Congress doesn't have to offset the tax cuts' estimated $4.5 trillion price tag.

• They have made permanence a red line, which is impossible without a current policy approach.

🚨 This afternoon, Johnson appeared to embrace both of the Senate's demands.

• "The policy makes a lot of sense to me," Johnson told reporters upon returning to Capitol Hill. "Current policy baseline, because it comports with reality."
• "That's our commitment," Johnson said when asked about permanence.

Zoom in: White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles made the case for permanence in a Senate lunch today.

• Johnson surveyed his members last week about adopting a current policy approach, as we reported.

What to watch: The chambers will also have to get on the same page over whether to raise the debt ceiling as part of the reconciliation package, as the current House version calls for.

— Hans Nichols

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is privately pushing Democrats to fill their Trump speech guest lists with people affected by federal job cuts and the funding freeze.

• Why it matters: Schumer is joining House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries in trying to match the PR pop that Trump will get from Tuesday's joint address to Congress.

The guests are expected to include, according to sources familiar ...

• A child with a genetic spinal condition who is alive because of an NIH program that was recently cut.
• An Army veteran close to retirement who was fired from Veterans Affairs.
• A fired USDA employee who worked in rural development.
• A person who relies on Medicaid.

Between the lines: Schumer's team told Democratic offices it wants their guests to get "influencer engagement" ahead of the speech.

• Senate Democrats have turned to social media as one of their main frontiers in opposing Trump's agenda.

Share this story

— Stephen Neukam

Senate Majority Leader John Thune will move tomorrow on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act — with a procedural vote planned for Monday, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: The bill, which would restrict transgender women from participating in women's school athletics programs, is a key priority for conservatives and could potentially divide the Democratic caucus.

• The House passed similar legislation in January with two Democrats — Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, both of Texas — joining Republicans in voting for it.
• Senate Republicans are unlikely to get the seven Democrats they need to pass the bill — but it could prove a painful vote for a handful of vulnerable Democrats.

Driving the news: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), one of the Senate co-sponsors of the legislation, complained on "The Megyn Kelly Show" podcast early this month that Thune hadn't brought the legislation to the floor.

• "John Thune told me he's going to get it the floor and he hadn't done it. It's time to put or shut up," he said.
• Kelly first reported today that Thune had agreed to file cloture on the bill tomorrow. This would set up the first procedural vote likely Monday, which we confirmed.

Share this story

— Hans Nichols and Stef Kight