The sudden panic over Florida's special elections has finally put President Trump on the same page as House Speaker Mike Johnson: The GOP's margin is too close for comfort.

Why it matters: Trump is coming to terms with how difficult it's going to be for him and Johnson to pass a massive tax and spending bill this summer.

• The president's shock decision to keep Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) in the House was accelerated by concerns over the special elections, but it was ultimately made to create more "breathing room" for House margins, sources tell us.
• "We're about to need every vote for reconciliation," a White House official said of the decision to pull back Stefanik's UN ambassador nomination.
• "Elise is of much greater value in the House as a vote than in the UN. The UN really doesn't matter. This is where we need her," a White House adviser said.

Between the lines: For Johnson's House Republicans, Tuesday's two specials are the only real-world data points they'll get this year on what's coming in 2026.

• In Florida's 6th Congressional District, state senator Randy Fine is battling to hold onto a seat vacated by national security adviser Mike Waltz that Trump won by 30 points in November.
• In that state's 1st District, Jimmy Patronis, the Republican candidate to replace former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, is in better shape. Trump won that district by 37 points.
• The special election in New York to succeed Stefanik, if she had taken the UN post, could have been delayed after the summer deadline Johnson had set to send the tax and spending bill to Trump.

"This is about the margins in the House, the polling in the Florida seat and the polling in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race," a person familiar with the matter told us.

The bottom line: "People say, 'Well, the margins were the same.' Well, actually they weren't," the White House official said.

• The untimely deaths of two House Dems "gave us some breathing room, and we're going to get our guys back," said the official, expressing optimism on the two Florida races.
• With the deaths of Democratic Reps. Sylvester Turner of Texas and Raul Grijalva of Arizona this month, Johnson has a 218–213 majority, meaning he can lose two votes and still pass legislation.
• If the GOP holds onto the two Florida seats, it will increase to 220–213 — padding his vote margin by one — until special elections are held to replace Turner and Grijalva.

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— Marc Caputo and Hans Nichols

The White House is injecting a new solution — and a potential problem — to Johnson and Senate GOP leader John Thune's budget math, our colleagues Marc Caputo and Neil Irwin scooped today.

• "If we renew tax cuts for the rich paid for by throwing people off Medicaid, we're gonna get f--king slaughtered," a senior White House official said.

Why it matters: Trump ran on cutting taxes for service workers. But congressional Republicans have built a coalition on lowering tax rates, not just carveouts.

• Nothing is set in stone. But the White House is discussing whether it should let tax rates rise on high earners as a way to pay for no taxes on tips, the White House official said.
• The 2018 Trump tax cuts reduced the top marginal rate from 39.6% to 37%. Around 1% of taxpayers are in the top bracket, and they pay a disproportionate share of income taxes.

House Democrats have a new go-to phrase when pressed by constituents on how they'll resist Trump on constitutional issues: We have Jamie Raskin on it.

Why it matters: The Maryland Democrat has privately argued against the use of the phrase "constitutional crisis," but he's something of a folk hero to resistance-minded Democrats.

• His credibility as a Jan. 6 committee member and Trump impeachment manager helps House Dems deflect some of the heat back home.
• "I always sleep better at night knowing that Jamie Raskin is here helping us out," said Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), Raskin's fellow former Jan. 6 panel member.

Zoom in: One lawmaker showed us a text conversation with grassroots organizers in their district in which he said Raskin was working on the legal response to Trump — and was met with cheers.

• Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) told us that, when pressed at town halls on who is working to prepare for a constitutional crisis, "I use Jamie Raskin's name." The answer, she said, evokes confidence from the crowd.
• "That's my answer, usually, that we actually have one of the best constitutional lawyers in the country," said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.).

Raskin has taken the lead on preparing for the possibility of Trump ignoring a judicial order, as we previously reported.

• "We are brainstorming lots of different kinds of responses to different kinds of defiance," he told us in an interview.

The intrigue: At a virtual House Democratic caucus meeting this month, Raskin made the case the term "constitutional crisis" doesn't convey the urgency of the moment, according to multiple sources on the call.

• He argued Democrats should call it "the sweeping MAGA attack on our Constitution."

Between the lines: Behind the scenes, it's not just Raskin working on this issue, several lawmakers stressed.

• "I think you've kind of got to explain what you're doing," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who leads Democrats' Stop Project 2025 Task Force, about answering questions at town halls.
• The response to a constitutional crisis "is going to be something that our caucus and [House Minority Leader Hakeem] Jeffries will weigh," Aguilar said.

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— Andrew Solender