The cold hard math behind Trump's rug pull on Elise Stefanik
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The sudden panic over Florida's special elections has finally put President Trump on the same page as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.): The GOP's margin is too close for comfort.
Why it matters: Trump is coming to terms with how difficult it's going to be for him and Johnson to pass a massive tax and spending bill this summer.
The president's shock decision to keep Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) in the House was accelerated by concerns over the special elections, but it was ultimately made to create more "breathing room" for House margins, sources tell us.
- "We're about to need every vote for reconciliation," a White House official said of the decision to pull back Stefanik's UN ambassador nomination.
- "Elise is of much greater value in the House as a vote than in the UN. The UN really doesn't matter. This is where we need her," a White House adviser said.
- "This is about the margins in the House, the polling in the Florida seat and the polling in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race," a person familiar with the matter told us.
Zoom in: For Johnson's House Republicans, Tuesday's two specials are the only real-world data points they'll get this year on what's coming in 2026.
- In Florida's 6th Congressional District, state senator Randy Fine is battling to hold onto a seat vacated by national security adviser Mike Waltz that Trump won by 30 points in November.
- In that state's 1st District, Jimmy Patronis, the Republican candidate to replace former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, is in better shape. Trump won that district by 37 points.
- The special election in New York to succeed Stefanik, if she had taken the UN post, could have been delayed after the summer deadline Johnson had set to send the tax and spending bill to Trump.
The bottom line: "People say, 'Well, the margins were the same.' Well, actually they weren't," the White House official said.
- The untimely deaths of two House Dems "gave us some breathing room, and we're going to get our guys back," said the official, expressing optimism on the two Florida races.
- With the deaths of Democratic Reps. Sylvester Turner of Texas and Raul Grijalva of Arizona this month, Johnson has a 218–213 majority, meaning he can lose two votes and still pass legislation.
- If the GOP holds onto the two Florida seats, it will increase to 220–213 — padding his vote margin by one — until special elections are held to replace Turner and Grijalva.
