Axios Hill Leaders

August 08, 2025
Welcome to the (almost) weekend. 775 words, 3 minutes.
- 🥵 2026's most endangered
- 👏 Dems' FBI clap-back
1 big thing: 🥵 2026's most endangered


More than a dozen House members — five Republicans and eight Democrats — have come into focus as specific targets of mid-decade redistricting efforts in four states.
Why it matters: The redistricting arms race kicked into full gear this week, and the outcome across a growing number of states could help determine which party controls the House after next year's midterms.
- Florida became the latest state to formally contemplate a redraw and Vice President Vance went to Indiana to try to persuade Republicans there to join the mix.
By the numbers: Texas and California are considering specific proposals: Texas' would target five Democrats, while California's homes in on five Republicans.
- 🎯 Republicans in two other states — Missouri and Ohio — are eyeing Democratic districts they could seek to turn redder with redistricting proposals.
- In Missouri, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's district is in the crosshairs, while Ohio Republicans are focused primarily on Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes' districts.
🖼️ The big picture: President Trump helped kick off the unusual mid-decade redistricting frenzy when he urged Texas lawmakers to try to eke out five more Republican seats.
- A group of Texas Democratic lawmakers left the state last weekend to try to thwart the redistricting bid by denying Republicans a quorum.
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) — who is holding a press conference today in Sacramento with Texas Democratic lawmakers — is threatening to undertake similar gerrymandering efforts to nullify Republicans' changes in Texas.
- California state lawmakers could vote on a plan the week of Aug. 18 if the GOP effort in Texas succeeds.
Zoom in: In Texas, Democratic Reps. Al Green, Henry Cuellar, Julie Johnson, Vicente Gonzalez Jr. and Greg Casar represent the districts that are being targeted.
- In California, it's GOP Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao, Ken Calvert and Darrell Issa.
- 🤠 Texas' new map would put Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett in the same district as Casar. Lawmakers fear it would be a bloodbath if they both ran.
- Already, some Republicans are angling to run in the potential new Texas districts. Ryan Binkley, a pastor and long-shot 2024 GOP presidential candidate, announced his bid for Johnson's seat.
Zoom out: Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez announced yesterday he was creating a select committee that would consider redrawing the state's district lines.
- Other states toying with the idea of launching their own mid-decade redistricting efforts include New York, Illinois, Maryland and New Jersey on the Democratic side — and Indiana, South Carolina and Nebraska on the Republican side.
- 🌽 Vance traveled to Indiana yesterday to meet with Statehouse leaders about a potential redistricting effort. Gov. Mike Braun was noncommittal following the session.
Between the lines: Adding to the intrigue, Trump yesterday demanded work begin on a new census, adding in a post on social media that, "People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED."
The bottom line: As the redistricting movement gains steam, look for more House members to become targets.
— Kathleen Hunter
2. 👏 Dems' FBI clap-back
👀 House Democrats are probing the FBI's efforts to help locate the Democratic state legislators who fled Texas last weekend.
Why it matters: The lawmakers are arguing the operation is a partisan misuse of federal resources for combating serious crimes, including terrorism and drug trafficking.
- The investigation is being led by House Oversight Committee ranking member Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), Judiciary Committee ranking member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), and Reps. Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas).
- ✏️ In a letter today to Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI director Kash Patel, they expressed "great concern" about the "abuse of federal public safety resources for completely political purposes and without a law enforcement rationale."
📢 What they're saying: The four Democrats noted breaking quorum has "occurred periodically" in Texas history, most recently in 2003 and 2021.
- They also pointed to a similar effort by then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) to enlist the feds' help in tracking down Democratic legislators in 2003 that resulted in a bevy of judicial and ethical backlash.
- They noted that Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who spearheaded the effort to get involved, is facing a tough reelection primary challenge to his right from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The other side: "When Democrat state legislators abandon their post, bring state business to a halt, violate the state constitution and let Beto's PAC and other dark money sources to pay for it, yes we should have law enforcement resources investigate," Cornyn said in a post on X.
— Andrew Solender
This newsletter was edited by Kate Hunter and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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