Axios Hill Leaders

September 24, 2026
π¨ We've got news. Tonight's edition is 827 words, 3 minutes.
- π¨ Scoop: Red wall alarm
- πͺ Dems target Trump's D.C. makeover
π¨ Situational awareness: President Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson and tech CEOs will hold an AI meeting on Tuesday, a source familiar told Axios' Maria Curi.
1 big thing: π¨ Scoop ... Red wall alarm
The Senate GOP campaign arm is making an extraordinary late ask β $8.9 million, to be exact β for three red states: Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, according to a memo sent today that we've obtained.
π¨ Why it matters: The request is yet another sign of the headwinds facing Republicans. In a good year, they wouldn't be begging for millions to defend states Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
- "We need $8.9 million in additional hard dollars to close the media gap and sustain that progress through Election Day," a memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee states.
π€ Zoom in: The memo lays out specific fundraising goals for each race.
- $1.2 million in Alaska, where Democratic nominee former Rep. Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in the RealClearPolitics polling average by two percentage points.
- $4.2 million in Iowa, where Democratic nominee Josh Turek and GOP nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson are separated by less than a percentage point in the RCP polling average.
- $3.5 million in Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has built a four-percentage-point lead over Sen. Jon Husted (R) in the RCP polling average.
πΈ Between the lines: The memo directs donors to candidates' campaigns or joint fundraising committees, which have higher donor limits.
- The committee has been taking advantage of a U.S. Supreme Court ruling to get more advertising at lower prices by coordinating with campaigns.
- NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) touted this strategy in a closed-door lunch yesterday, showing in a chart how it has allowed them to keep up with Democrats' stronger campaign fundraising, according to slides we've seen.
- "The environment remains tough, but these races have improved as the Republican ecosystem has engaged," says the NRSC memo.
β© Zoom out: Cook Political Report this week moved the Senate races in Georgia, Kansas and South Carolina in their ratings toward Democrats.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Kansas, Michigan and Iowa toward Democrats.
- Democrats are competitive in seven seats currently held by Republicans, according to both raters.
- They only need four to take the majority next Congress.
π The other side: Democrats have their own late-stage headaches, with Democratic senators calling for a cash infusion in Michigan.
- They're warning that nominee Abdul El-Sayed is getting trounced by outside super PACs.
π What we're hearing: Republicans are quietly starting to count out North Carolina and Georgia, based on our conversations.
- Semafor reported millions of dollars in GOP super PAC money were pulled from North Carolina.
- But the GOP sees a silver lining in New Hampshire and Michigan, where their candidates are making competitive bids to flip Democratic seats.
- Majority Leader John Thune is telling candidates to run the race they need to in their state, even if it means breaking with him, Congress, or, in some cases, Trump.
π¨ The bottom line: "I'm very realistic about there are political headwinds for us, and so you have to navigate that," Thune told us yesterday.
β Stef Kight
2. πͺ Dems target Trump's D.C. makeover
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) plans to force a Senate vote next week on two new resolutions aimed at preventing Trump from demolishing the Kennedy Center or building his proposed triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery.
π Why it matters: Senate Democrats are putting Republicans on notice that they're prepared to use every available legislative means, including the appropriations process later this year, to stymie Trump's efforts to erect or erase memorials in the D.C. area.
- Merkley will introduce his two bills when the Senate returns next week and then ask for unanimous consent to consider them at the first opportunity. That's likely to fail.
- But Democrats will have the procedural upper hand at the end of the year in the appropriations process, making individual votes more likely.
- Merkley has an important ally in Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who is cosponsoring Merkley's measure designed to protect the Kennedy Center. Both are on the Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment and Related Agencies.
π Flashback: This spring, Republicans blinked when they faced pressure from Democrats over funding for Trump's new East Wing ballroom.
- At the White House's request, Senate Republicans initially proposed $1 billion for the Secret Service for "above-ground and below-ground security features," but they removed the language when it became clear they didn't have the votes.
βΌοΈ The other side: Trump has said his arch will become a dual-use facility housing snipers, drones and ammunition.
- When he closed the Kennedy Center for renovations, he called it "tired, broken and dilapidated" and in need of an upgrade.
Zoom in: Merkley's Kennedy Center measure is written broadly to prohibit the demolition of any presidential memorial designated by Congress, extending its protections to the Lincoln and Jefferson memorials.
βΒ Hans Nichols
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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