Axios Hill Leaders

September 23, 2026
🏎️ Strap in, we've got news: Tonight's edition is 988 words, 3.5 minutes.
- 🛟 Thune's rescue plan
- 🎯 Exclusive: '28 target list
1 big thing: 🛟 Thune's rescue plan
John Thune plans to run for another term as Senate GOP leader, even if Republicans lose the chamber's majority, he told us in an exclusive interview today in his Capitol office.
🛟 Why it matters: Thune is giving his senators broad leeway and tons of cash to preserve GOP control of the Senate.
- "I do see the Senate as a firewall in a lot of ways," Thune told us.
- "We will spend probably the next two years — if the House flips — trying to do impeachment or investigations, etc.," he said. Otherwise, the chamber will focus on judicial and executive nominations.
Zoom out: Thune has three ways to help in the "tough environment" for Republicans in 2026.
🪧 1. Run against Washington: Thune said he understands if GOP candidates need to rhetorically distance themselves from Congress or even fellow Republicans in D.C., including himself.
- And when it comes to distancing from Trump: "In some places the president's coming in, some places he isn't." Candidates can draw their own conclusions, Thune said.
- Republican candidates are increasingly concluding that to win their races, they need to break with Trump on some issues.
🗳️ 2. Vote for your state: Thune's policy with senators is "don't surprise us and when you can, stay with the team," but "do what's in the best interest of you and your state."
- That could lead to a rebuke of Trump when Democrats force another vote on an Iran war powers resolution, expected before the Senate breaks for October.
- People's views have "evolved and changed" as the war has dragged on, he said. Many senators are "responding to what they're hearing back home."
"That's a really hard vote," Thune acknowledged. "Any time you are committing your country to putting young men and women in harm's way — those are the hardest votes you'll make."
- He hopes Republicans will stick together to win the vote.
What to watch: Thune wants to give Republicans more votes before the break to champion back home.
- He sees an opportunity with permitting reform legislation, which is being negotiated behind the scenes. Thune said it's possible he sets up a procedural vote on it after the final vote on the Protect College Sports bill.
- Thune is also floating a vote on the House-passed legislation targeting data center energy costs if the Senate remains in town next week.
💰 3. Spend cash like crazy: The Thune-linked Senate Leadership Fund is set to spend nearly $280 million in video advertising this year — more than any other group, according to AdImpact.
- Texas PAC, which is affiliated with SLF, is on track to spend another $112 million.
- "Texas is expensive," Thune said, but "we're doing everything we can to help. We can't afford to lose Texas."
The bottom line: "That's ultimately up to the conference," Thune emphasized when asked if he'd run again if the GOP lost the majority, but "that's the plan."
- "The elections are going to be really important — I think — in how we view what happens next."
- Thune said you can't "rule anything in or out" when asked if he could face a challenger for the position.
- "But I think we worked really hard to create an environment here that is conducive to individual senators being able to achieve their objectives," he said. "I think, in this job, you have to be a good listener."
— Stef Kight
2. 🎯 Exclusive: '28 target list
American Priorities, which has devoted itself to countering the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC, is preparing to challenge nine House Democrats in 2028, the group told us exclusively.
- Why it matters: The super PAC helped power the primary victories of democratic socialists and progressives across the country, including New York's Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez.
🗽 Zoom in: The pro-Palestinian group is feeling particularly bullish about its future in the Empire State.
- The organization is planning to target four Democrats in New York in 2028: Reps. Ritchie Torres, George Latimer, Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi.
- The other Democrats the group expects to challenge are Reps. Jared Moskowitz of Florida and Greg Landsman of Ohio, as well as House nominees Melissa Bean of Illinois, Adrian Boafo of Maryland and Ben McAdams of Utah, who are not in office but are favorites to win in November.
American Priorities, which spent more than $6 million this year, said it will invest more than that in 2028.
- "If there is only one lesson candidates and organizations take from 2026, it should be that Gaza is not a litmus test. It is a credibility test," the progressive group wrote in a memo, in which it claimed 12 primary wins this year with one loss.
- AIPAC was involved in only some of those races.
What they're saying: Greg Krieg, a spokesperson for American Priorities, told us the super PAC disapproves of the campaigning and legislative records of the nine candidates on its 2028 target list.
- He singled out the recent vote by the six sitting House Democrats in favor of a proposal penalizing universities that take part in boycotts of Israel.
- He added the nine Democrats "can get off the list" if they disavow AIPAC's support and champion policy "that respects the human rights of Palestinians."
The other side: AIPAC spokesperson Deryn Sousa shot back at American Priorities.
- "While anti-Israel dark money groups are focused on attacking AIPAC, our members are focused on strengthening the U.S.-Israel relationship and helping elect more than 300 pro-Israel Democrats and Republicans across the country," said Sousa.
- "We have won more races than we've lost this year," said an aide for the United Democracy Project, AIPAC's super PAC.
- "I think it's silly to make that announcement without knowing what the world's going to look like in 2028," said one of the targeted Democrats, who requested anonymity.
— Holly Otterbein
This newsletter was edited by Justin Green and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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