Sen. Bernie Moreno wants his fellow Republicans to cancel their holiday plans and jam through "everything that we could possibly get" if they lose the majorities in November's midterms.

• Why it matters: Republicans couldn't muster the votes for a megabill this summer, and leadership is not confident they can now.

📞 But Moreno is calling for the GOP to make a bigger push in the event of losing power.

• "We will do a reconciliation bill, one way or the other," Moreno — who said it is "more likely" the GOP holds the Senate — told reporters outside the Capitol today.
• But if Republicans lose: "It'll be the Last Supper. So it'll be a giant reconciliation bill where we take all the Republican priorities that we can get done."
• "If we lose the House and the Senate, we should be here from Nov. 9 until Dec. 31 with no break at all," he said. "Like, we'll have turkeys here for Thanksgiving."

Zoom in: Conversations have been ongoing in congressional offices about what a reconciliation package might look like in the lame-duck session between the election and the new Congress next year, a source familiar with the matter tells us.

• "We are working with the House and White House to develop what all is included to be able to sell to the public and our Republican colleagues when we return," Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), chair of the Budget Committee, told us.
• Election outcomes won't substantively change much for frequent holdouts like Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) who are on their way out.
• That's not to mention Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), who are appropriators and known to break from the party.

What to watch: Republicans face a long to-do list in the lame duck, including funding the government for the next fiscal year, passing emergency defense spending and raising the debt ceiling.

• Those could all be considered part of a massive reconciliation package that requires just a majority vote to pass.
• But not everything qualifies for the reconciliation process — and big bills can cause big headaches.

Other to-do items include:

• Passing the National Defense Authorization Act
• Reinstating FISA Section 702, the warrantless wiretap authority
• Passing the farm bill
• Passing permitting reform
• Confirming nominations

Between the lines: Some of the administration's top priorities are banking on the partisan-led funding maneuver of reconciliation, including President Trump's sprawling Golden Dome missile defense system, autonomous weapon advancement efforts and upgrades to the F-35 fighter jet.

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told attendees at an Army conference yesterday the Pentagon needs "a minimum" of $350 billion to "rebuild the military."

The intrigue: If Republicans lose the Senate majority, it will almost certainly be Moreno's job to try to win it back.

• He is running for National Republican Senatorial Committee chair — so far, unopposed.

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— Stef Kight, with contributions from Axios Defense reporter Thomas Novelly

Trump is preemptively blaming Cornyn and Karl Rove for "doing everything possible to make it hard for Ken Paxton" to win the Texas Senate race.

• "If Ken Paxton loses, it will be because of WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks like John Cornyn and Karl Rove," Trump posted on Truth Social.

🤠 Why it matters: That's a far cry from "clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose."

• Trump won Texas by 14 points just two years ago.

What to watch: Trump's post comes the same day FEC campaign finance reports confirmed Elon Musk's efforts to help Paxton across the finish line.

• Musk gave $158 million to the Senate GOP's main super PAC in September over two transactions, as Axios reported this morning.
• The day after each Musk donation, SLF made an equal-sized transfer to a Texas PAC— a pop-up super PAC dedicated to electing Paxton.

The big picture: A new poll this week in Texas showed Democratic candidate James Talarico with a narrow lead over Paxton, 50% to 47%.

• Republican leaders warned Trump for months that if Paxton won the primary against Cornyn, it would cost the party far more to keep the seat.
• Those predictions are proving true, with more than $500 million in ad spending already flowing into the Texas Senate race, according to AdImpact.

The other side: Talarico is getting pummeled with some of that money, but he's far from defenseless. He was already on the air in August, when Paxton and Republicans were still figuring out their game plan — and who would foot the bill.

• Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter off an army of small donors. His campaign said 97% of contributions were under $100. Talarico's fundraising prowess allowed him to raise hard dollars, which command lower ad rates.
• "Oh my god, holy crap, I saw Talarico," Moreno said today. "I don't even know how you raised $64 million in a quarter. I mean, that's a number that's mind-blowing."
• Paxton brought in $18 million.

— Stef Kight and Hans Nichols