📢 Senate Republicans are starting to talk more like their House colleagues on the prospects of a government shutdown this fall.

• "[W]hat Chuck Schumer and the Democrats want more than anything else is another government shutdown," Senate Majority Leader John Thune said today.

🚊 Why it matters: There have already been two shutdowns in the past year, and the incentives are lining up for one last pre-midterms collision.

• Democratic voters and backbenchers want more of a fight with Republicans, as we've reported repeatedly.
• Government funding is one of the few ways through which the party can force one, although a short-term funding extension could defuse the fight until after November.

⚾️ The big picture: Democrats have embraced hardball in moments of leverage.

• They helped block FISA renewal last week over President Trump's elevation of Pulte as acting director of national intelligence, forced a shutdown over Affordable Care Act subsidies at the end of 2025, and used a Homeland Security shutdown this year to demand changes to ICE and Border Patrol.
• They showed Republicans they are willing to block must-pass or traditionally bipartisan legislation as leverage to advance their policy goals.

⚔️ Zoom in: In the Senate, the shutdown rhetoric sounds more like saber-rattling for a bipartisan process than a serious push to bypass one.

• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer blamed Appropriations chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and said she needs to "sit down in good faith" with Democrats.
• But Collins pushed back sharply on Schumer, telling Semafor she's made three "good-faith" offers and been rejected.
• Appropriations ranking member Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) told Semafor that Collins "continues to propose topline funding levels that would supersize Trump's war budget while leaving families behind."

😤 Over in the House, conservatives are pressuring Speaker Mike Johnson to undercut Democrats' leverage before Sept. 30, as we told you last week in Hill Leaders.

• 🎁 The GOP group's wishlist includes SNAP and TSA funding. Each became a major flashpoint in the recent shutdowns.
• 💰 Add that to $70 billion for ICE and Border Patrol that Trump just signed into law, and a shutdown suddenly has less bite, Republicans say.

🧮 Reality check: Even if GOP leaders embraced the strategy, it could fail before it ever limits Democrats' options — while setting off a precedent-shattering fight over the future of bipartisan appropriations.

• Collins isn't confident the Senate can pass a third reconciliation bill, she said at a hearing last week.
• "You've got to have something that gets 50 and 218, and I'm not sure exactly, at this point, what that is," Thune said yesterday about the challenge of getting a party-line bill through both chambers.

The bottom line: Voters tend to blame the party in power for shutdowns.

• Republicans would love to avoid being on the hook for another one.

— Justin Green and Kate Santaliz

A trio of absences hindered Senate Democrats' latest attempt to rein in Trump's ability to conduct military operations in Iran.

• Sens. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), all of whom have supported past war powers resolutions, missed today's vote, which failed 47-48.

Why it matters: The procedural vote took place while Congress is full of questions about the details of the deal the U.S. and Iran signed electronically on Sunday — and whether Congress would sign off on any of it.

• There had been speculation that another Republican, such as retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.), might be tempted to join the defectors, but that didn't materialize.
• Democrats could have prevailed with full attendance because Republicans were missing Sens. Josh Hawley (Mo.) and Mitch McConnell (Ky.).

Catch up quick: The House this month passed a similar measure to curb Trump's military campaign in Iran, signaling waning support among lawmakers for the military operations.

• It was the first successful rebuke of Trump's Iran war effort after multiple Democratic-led war powers attempts failed.
• Four Senate Republicans — Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Rand Paul of Kentucky — voted in favor today of discharging the war powers measure from committee, while John Fetterman (D-Pa.) voted "no."

— Kathleen Hunter