President Trump's first term provoked the movement for a Green New Deal. His second term may have killed it.

Why it matters: Democrats aren't explicitly disavowing the Green New Deal, but they've abruptly stopped talking about it as they scramble to find new ways to talk about climate change.

• Over the past three months, Democrats in Congress collectively said "Green New Deal" only six times across social media and on the floor.
• That's the fewest mentions since the proposal rose to prominence in the fall of 2018, according to data from the legislative tracking service Quorum.
• Over the same three-month period, Republicans mentioned "Green New Deal" 337 times as they continue to believe that what President Trump calls the "Green New Scam" is a losing issue for Democrats.

Zoom in: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts have not re-introduced their Green New Deal resolution that had become one of their signature initiatives (they introduced it in April 2023 of the last Congress).

• Spokespeople for Markey and Ocasio-Cortez did not respond for comment.
• In attacking the GOP's "one big, beautiful bill," Democrats and many groups have focused on claims it will drive up energy costs and cost jobs from scuttled projects rather than focus on it exacerbating climate change.

Other Democrats eyeing presidential runs have signaled they aren't purists on climate change in the way some Democrats did during Trump's first term.

• Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona told The New York Times earlier this year: "Every Latino man wants a big-ass truck, which, nothing wrong with that."
• Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has continued to be supportive of natural gas projects in his state.

Flashback: Many 2020 Democratic presidential candidates embraced the "Green New Deal" and put forward multitrillion-dollar proposals.

• When then-Sen. Kamala Harris ran for president in 2020, her Green New Deal agenda called for mandating automakers to only make electric or hydrogen cars by 2035.

Between the lines: The tide against far-reaching Green New Deal-esque proposals began before Trump won in 2024.

• Then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) dismissed it in 2019 as the "green dream, or whatever they call it."
• When Vice President Harris was running for president last fall, her campaign equivocated and dodged on the issue.

The intrigue: Some Democratic leaders are increasingly skeptical that liberal climate advocacy groups can deliver the voters they claim to represent.

• Former President Biden passed one of the most ambitious and expensive climate-focused bills in history, and voters did not appear to reward him.
• Josh Freed, who leads the Climate and Energy Program at the moderate think tank Third Way, said: "The groups wouldn't or couldn't sell the IRA, and promised they'd deliver young voters on climate. They didn't deliver on selling the IRA, and Democrats did worse with young voters. A lot of elected officials' faith and trust in that apparatus has been shaken."

Yes, but: Stevie O'Hanlon, the political director of the Sunrise Movement that was a key force behind the Green New Deal, told Axios:

• "We're seeing a level of enthusiasm among young people that we haven't since before 2018… The climate crisis is one of Donald Trump's biggest political vulnerabilities."

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This chart helps to show the declining prominence of the Green New Deal framework among Capitol Hill Democrats.

Vanishing sea ice will bring increased commercial activity to North Pole — and risk of geopolitical strife, too, a new RAND Corp. report warns.

Why it matters: New access to the Central Arctic Ocean on top of the world is a looming consequence of global warming.

• The report provides a timeline of when various kinds of specific uses — like shipping, fishing, tourism and mining — could begin.

The big picture: "Our main finding is that the most plausible scenario for maritime use of the CAO in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, consisting mainly of some seasonal shipping and tourism," it finds.

State of play: It explores scenarios for the CAO going out decades, with lots of uncertainties.

• One conclusion is that different uses will start happening in a "staggered" way.
• It sees limited activity until the mid-2030s, then potentially fishing when an international moratorium expires

Real emergence of North Pole shipping as a seasonal alternative starts around 2050, then "sustained summer presence" by a variety of actors in the 2060s.

• Mining is possible, but there's "no indication at this stage that the CAO holds unique minerals."

Catch up quick: A helpful cheat sheet arrives in Table 4.1, which looks at forces that could alternatively enable and hinder various activities in the decades ahead.

• For instance, "promoting factors" for shipping over the North Pole (called the Transpolar Sea Route) include time and distance savings and geopolitical instability.
• Barriers include environmental hazards and lack of search and rescue capacities.

Friction point: Expanding and competing military presence by multiple countries could loom, with exercises by Russia and others already moving further north.

• But "the risk of resource-driven geopolitical conflict in the CAO is limited, although accidental escalation is always possible."

The bottom line: The overall vibe of the report is to be ready, but don't panic — the unfrozen North is unlikely to become the new Wild West.

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🧭 Exxon is actively hunting for new acquisitions, but the bar is high, CEO Darren Woods tells the Wall Street Journal.

• State of play: "I think there are opportunities out there for us. We're working to see if we can't bring some of those to fruition," he said, but cautioned they don't want volume just for volume's sake.
• The big picture: The comments come as rival Chevron just grew by closing its acquisition of Hess Corp. after besting Exxon in arbitration over assets in Guyana.

⛏️ Via Reuters, "Top White House officials told a group of rare earths firms last week that they are pursuing a pandemic-era approach to boost U.S. critical minerals production and curb China's market dominance by guaranteeing a minimum price for their products."

"It will allow us to reach faster conclusions on the state of the marine environment in certain places... I expect within the next five years, we'll see an explosion of AI applications in scientific fields and in ways I can't even imagine right now."

That's the average power demand growth expected in ERCOT, the grid covering most of Texas, in 2025 and 2026, per the Energy Department's independent stats arm.

Why it matters: It's a testament to the surge in data centers, which are adding to other sources of rising electricity consumption.

What's next: "We expect electricity demand within ERCOT to increase by 7% in 2025 and by 14% in 2026 when some large data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities come online," EIA finds.

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