Home utility bills are poised for a high profile in the battle to control Congress — but turning energy costs into political gain is easier said than done.

Why it matters: Democrats see an opening to transform power prices into political baggage for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.

• 📈 Prices are up across the country and projected to keep rising in 2026.
• 🗳️ President Trump campaigned on pledges to sharply cut energy costs.
• 🖋️ The GOP's signature budget law phases out incentives for adding new renewable power.
• 🗞️ AI data centers' voracious need for energy keeps the topic in the news.

Yes, but: Electricity is only part of the energy cost equation. And Republicans counter that the recent budget law will resonate with energy-minded voters.

• "Democrats have a big job ahead of them connecting to everyday voters that the beautiful bill, and its removing subsidies, is equaling higher energy prices," said Casey Burgat of George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management.

Driving the news: Democratic candidates, campaign arms and allied groups are placing ads, billboards and more that hit Republicans over utility bills.

• It's part of a wider message on consumer costs, flipping the script on the inflation that damaged Democrats and President Biden.

"I think the cost of living overall will dictate the extent to which Democrats can claw back support among voters who defected from Biden to Trump," said Dave Wasserman, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

• "Fundamentally, Biden won in 2020 with the support of voters who were frustrated by the COVID economy, and Trump won in 2024 thanks to many of those same voters who were frustrated with inflation," he said.

Friction point: The battle over the budget law's energy provisions cuts both ways, and GOP officials say Biden-era policies put too many restrictions on fossil fuels.

• GOP candidates and operatives will point to measures like the law's expansion of drilling access for oil and, more relevant to power, natural gas on federal lands.
• "Republicans are unleashing American energy dominance and strengthening energy security, ultimately lowering everyday costs for American families and small businesses," Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement.
• And power bills, paid less often than most people fill up cars, may lack the day-to-day resonance of gasoline.

What we're watching: How the topic plays in tight House and Senate races.

• Joanna Mendoza, the Democrat challenging Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's 6th District, says power costs are a big deal for people.
• "We're in triple digits for several months, and you cannot live without some type of air conditioning or cooling," she said of the southeastern Arizona region.

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Electricity prices are surging across the country as a perfect storm of aging equipment and AI demand slams the nation's grid.

Why it matters: Paying more to keep air conditioners, laptops and other electronics running is straining household budgets as Americans deal with other rising costs.

The big picture: The nationwide average retail residential price for electricity is about 7% higher than this time last year and 32% higher than it was five years ago, according to Energy Department data.

Zoom in: These rising prices are driven by infrastructure problems, public policy and — increasingly — massive new AI data centers.

🗓️ Outdated power grid. Limited transmission capacity increases prices by creating "congestion," with overloaded power lines unable to carry more electricity because of overheating risks.

• That leads to using higher-cost, less-efficient electricity to meet demand.

🖥️ Data-center demand. Many analysts point to power-hungry AI data centers as a driver of rising rates, especially in data center hot spots.

• That's partly because of data centers' huge demand for energy. But it's also because investments in new transmission lines and other gear are being passed on to customers.
• Data centers consumed about 4% of the nation's total electricity in 2023. The Energy Department estimates it could increase to 12% by 2028.
• But there are other demand drivers: Hotter summers, new manufacturing, EVs, and the wider electrification and digitization of the economy.

⚡ Generation capacity. That's the maximum amount of electricity that can be produced when going full-bore — and it's scarce. That has raised prices for equipment needed to meet the demand.

• The country's largest grid operator announced price increases to try to encourage more power plant development.

⭕ Red tape. Energy projects regularly face bureaucratic delays and denials.

• Natural gas plants and other sources "are trying to connect, and they are experiencing the same slow and complicated interconnection process that results from limited capacity," Rob Gramlich, president of Grid Strategies LLC, told the Senate's energy committee earlier this year.

🌀 Mother Nature. Hurricanes, wildfires, high winds and other weather-related threats have spurred a need for investing in stronger — but costly — towers, poles and other equipment.

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🚢 The EU's pledge to give some U.S. firms wiggle room under CBAM — the bloc's looming fees on industrial imports based on emissions — could bring headaches, Columbia University analysts warn.

• Why it matters: The recent U.S.-EU trade framework commits "additional flexibilities" under the "carbon border adjustment mechanism" for small- and medium-sized businesses.
• Friction point: The concession "may generate diplomatic ripple effects, encouraging others, particularly in the Global South, to press for comparable treatment," write Trevor Sutton and Evelyne Williams of Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy. Full post.

🔥 Wildfires in Canada helped push fine particulate pollution in 2023 to "levels not seen since 2011 in the United States and since 1998 in Canada," a report from University of Chicago researchers finds.

• Why it matters: Fine PM is a massive public health problem that erodes life expectancy. "Evidence of a link between climate change, wildfire smoke, and rising particulate pollution has been increasing over the past two decades," the report notes.
• Go deeper: Full report ... Interactive data tool

👀 An LNG tanker from Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project, which is under U.S. sanctions, has docked in China for the first time, Bloomberg and others report.

• Why it matters: "If this one goes through without any US reaction, that could be a signal for China and other buyers that it would be ok to buy sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 cargoes," Anne-Sophie Corbeau, an analyst with Columbia's energy think tank, said via LinkedIn (h/t Reuters).

⚔️ There's a new twist in the battle up north over oil sands heavyweight Cenovus Energy's $5.7 billion acquisition of smaller player MEG Energy Corp.

• The latest: Strathcona Resources, which was also a suitor, said today it's acquiring another 5% of MEG shares to boost its stake to roughly 14% — and will vote against the Cenovus buy.
• What we're watching: MEG shareholders' planned Oct. 9 vote on the deal, which requires two-thirds to go through.

📉 Wall Street banks are lowering their 2025 and 2026 crude price forecasts despite geopolitical risks, a WSJ survey finds.

Uber has placed a lot of robotaxi bets lately, but its recent three-way deal with Nuro and Lucid could be the most consequential — not just for the partners, but for the entire industry.

Why it matters: It's a high-profile experiment to figure out the economics of robotaxis — and identify a business model that can be profitable for all.

Catch up quick: Uber said last month it would buy 20,000 Lucid electric robotaxis over six years and pay Nuro a per-mile licensing fee for its robot driver.

• Uber is taking a small stake in both companies.

The big picture: The ride-hailing company is trying to defend its business from the growth of robotaxis by folding small fleets of autonomous vehicles into its network, alongside human drivers.

• It already has deals with 18 AV partners, including Waymo, whose driverless taxis can be summoned on Uber in Phoenix, Austin and Atlanta.

Threat level: With Lucid and Nuro, however, Uber has more skin in the game.

• Wall Street analysts worry Uber's "asset-light" business model will get bogged down by the extra costs of managing a vehicle fleet.

Read the whole story, and sign up for the free Axios Future of Mobility newsletter, where this first appeared.

That's total global greenhouse gas emissions in the first half of 2025, per Climate TRACE, a major research coalition.

• Why it matters: It's a slight rise from 2024 at a time when steep cuts are needed to keep Paris Agreement goals from slipping further away.
• The big picture: Fossil fuel operations drove the biggest rise in emissions, and the U.S. accounted for over half the increase. Full analysis.
• What we're watching: CNN reports on a new nonprofit aiming to preserve, and accessibly present, climate data that Trump officials have taken offline.