Dems seek political lift on power-bill hikes, but it's no sure thing

• Prices are up across the country and projected to keep rising in 2026.
• President Trump campaigned on pledges to sharply cut energy costs.
• The GOP's signature budget law phases out incentives for adding new renewable power.
• AI data centers' voracious need for energy keeps the topic in the news.

But electricity is only part of the equation when it comes to energy costs. And Republicans counter that the recent budget law will resonate with energy-minded voters.

• "Democrats have a big job ahead of them connecting to everyday voters that the beautiful bill, and its removing subsidies, is equaling higher energy prices," said Casey Burgat of George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management.

Driving the news: Democratic candidates, campaign arms and allied groups are placing digital and TV ads, billboards and more that hit Republicans over utility bills.

• "Americans want lower costs and rising energy bills will be a regular, unavoidable reminder to voters that House Republicans have failed miserably at fulfilling their central campaign promise," Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said via email.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer often points to analysis by the pro-renewables think tank Energy Innovation.

• Its study estimates that the budget law will bring $130 annual increases in house energy costs by 2030.

The big picture: Electricity prices and demand have been rising since the pandemic thanks to several forces rowing in the same direction.

• Think data center growth, wider digitalization of the economy, high temperatures, rising costs for natural gas used in power plants, power infrastructure investment, electric cars, manufacturing growth and more.
• The Energy Department's independent stats arm projects a year-over-year increase of over 4% in residential costs per kilowatt-hour in 2025, and a similar rise in 2026.

Reality check: Gasoline prices are typically a much higher share of household energy bills than electricity.

• The cost of filling up is tethered to oil prices, and right now ample supply and modest global demand growth could mean lower election-year prices.
• The Energy Information Administration currently projects gasoline averaging under $2.90 per gallon next year, a 6% decrease from 2025.

Friction point: The battle over the budget law's energy provisions cuts both ways, and GOP officials say Biden-era policies put too many restrictions on fossil fuels.

• GOP candidates and operatives will point to measures like the law's expansion of drilling access for oil and, more relevant to power, natural gas on federal lands.
• "Republicans are unleashing American energy dominance and strengthening energy security, ultimately lowering everyday costs for American families and small businesses," Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement.

State of play: One example of electricity bills' role is Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate for governor in New Jersey, vowing to declare a "state of emergency" that freezes rate increases.

What they're saying: Home energy is part of the wider mix of expenses that are together critical in elections.

• "I think the cost of living overall will dictate the extent to which Democrats can claw back support among voters who defected from Biden to Trump," said Dave Wasserman, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
• "Fundamentally, Biden won in 2020 with the support of voters who were frustrated by the COVID economy, and Trump won in 2024 thanks to many of those same voters who were frustrated with inflation," he said.

Yes, but: Power bills, paid less often than most people fill up cars, may lack the day-to-day resonance of gasoline.

What we're watching: Look for the topic to surface in many of the tightest races.

• Joanna Mendoza, the Democrat running against Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's highly competitive 6th District, says power costs are a big deal for people.
• "We're in triple digits for several for several months, and you cannot live without some type of air conditioning or cooling," she said of the southeastern Arizona region.
• Constituents don't have a choice on using power because "it could be a matter between life or death," she said in an interview.