Cash cab: Uber seeks winning model for robotaxis
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Uber has placed a lot of robotaxi bets lately, but the three-way deal it struck last month with Nuro and Lucid could be the most consequential — not just for the partners, but for the entire industry.
Why it matters: It's a high-profile experiment to figure out the economics of robotaxis and, perhaps more importantly, to identify a business model that can be profitable for all.
Catch up quick: Uber said last month it would buy 20,000 Lucid electric robotaxis over six years and pay Nuro a per-mile licensing fee for its robot driver.
- Uber is also taking a small stake in both companies.
The big picture: The ride-hailing company is trying to defend its business from the growth of robotaxis by folding small fleets of autonomous vehicles into its network, alongside human drivers.
- It already has deals with 18 AV partners, including Waymo, whose driverless taxis can be summoned on Uber in Phoenix, Austin and Atlanta.
- The "platform strategy" lets Uber embrace robotaxis without spending a lot of money to build them.
State of play: With Lucid and Nuro, however, Uber has more skin in the game.
- "Uber has a Waymo risk," explains AV strategist Grayson Brulte, founder and CEO of The Road to Autonomy.
- "If Waymo decides to walk away from Uber, then Uber has an AV problem," he tells Axios. "Uber is hedging its bets by putting these vehicles on their balance sheet."
Zoom in: Many AV partnerships are nothing more than press releases — vague promises to work together in some capacity in the future.
- But a Lucid regulatory filing shares key details that suggest the three-way pact between Uber, Lucid and Nuro is more substantial.
The vehicle production agreement says Uber will buy "not less than 20,000" Gravity Plus vehicles from Lucid — 10,000 shortly after the start of production and another 10,000 within six years.
- The Gravity Plus is a modified version of Lucid's new $80,000 electric SUV that's been optimized for its role as a robotaxi, where high utilization matters more than speed or performance.
- A larger battery, good for 450 miles of range, means less downtime for charging — and more time collecting fares.
- Production is to begin next year, and the first Gravity Plus robotaxis will be deployed on the Uber network in late 2026.
Between the lines: The deal helps establish a potential ecosystem for AVs, with benefits for all three players.
- It's the first licensing agreement for Nuro, an AV pioneer that pivoted from delivery bots to licensing its technology for robotaxis.
- With EV subsidies disappearing, Lucid gets to broaden its market opportunities while it works on future lower-cost models, interim CEO Marc Winterhoff says via email.
The intrigue: Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), is a major investor in both Uber and Lucid, so the deal certainly props up the storyline around both companies.
- Plus, Uber just joined a late-stage funding round for Nuro, which raised $203 million at a $6 billion valuation.
What they're saying: "If you look at this model, it does allow each party to really do what it is absolutely best at," Nuro co-founder Dave Ferguson tells Axios.
- "This is the future," says Brulte. "Over time, you will see more and more deals structured this way and expanded to include real estate assets to manage the fleets."
The other side: Critics say the AV hype machine is cranking up like it's 2017 again, distracting from the massive technical challenges that still remain.
- "There is no business case for unsafe autonomous technology, and publicizing business cases, partnerships and licensing deals before the technology is safe and ready puts the cart way ahead of the horse," says John Krafcik, former CEO of Waymo.
The bottom line: The industry still has to prove robotaxis are safe.
