HOUSTON — Maxim Timchenko has a warning for any European politicians weighing a return of Russian pipelined gas: the true costs vastly exceed the sticker price.

Threat level: "People shouldn't be naive that Russian gas can be cheap. Absolutely not. The price can be paid in different forms," the CEO of DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, tells Axios.

• His advice about the energy security risks and other jeopardy came in our interview at last week's CERAWeek by S&P Global conference.
• "Russians will never sell gas with [a] discount to market prices without asking for something," he said.

Why it matters: The specter of resuming pipeline flows — now a small slice of pre-invasion levels — has surfaced in talks around a peace deal and as high prices undercut EU industrial strength.

• "If, say, the U.S. and Russia agree on cooperation in the energy sector, then a gas pipeline for Europe could be ensured," Russian President Vladimir Putin said March 13, per Bloomberg and other reports.
• "And this will benefit Europe, as it will receive cheap Russian gas," he said.

Inside the room: Timchenko used CERAWeek for talks around more deals to bring U.S. LNG to Ukraine, which began late last year via its agreement with Venture Global.

• "Our idea is to build this bridge between the United States and Ukraine, Europe and Ukraine," he said.
• "Ukraine has the largest gas storage facility [in Europe], and definitely it should play [an] important role in energy security of Ukraine and Europe today," Timchenko said.
• He met with members of DOE head Chris Wright's team, among other officials, he said.

Catch up quick: Russia was Europe's dominant supplier before the invasion of Ukraine, providing nearly half of the bloc's gas, but now it's around 13% including LNG.

The big picture: Timchenko talked up the potential for Ukrainian gas and renewables to be a "very important part of [the] energy security landscape in Europe."

• "We have access to infrastructure. We have very good wind and solar potential. We have a lot of gas," Timchenko said.
• "Ukraine will become an exporter of clean energy, mixing nuclear and renewables," he said, touting growth potential for both.

Yes, but: Russian attacks have badly damaged Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and the country faces massive rebuilding.

• Timchenko notes that the country hasn't stopped development, even amid the invasion, but he's seeking private investment to boost renewables and oil and gas.
• He said he would embrace the proposed mineral and energy deal between the U.S. and Ukraine.
• "We welcome any deals that bring in more U.S. and European companies to the Ukrainian market," Timchenko said. "We need fresh capital. We need technology, we need expertise ... we need more competition in the market."

What we're watching: He's hoping to announce deals with U.S. companies at a major Ukraine recovery conference in Rome scheduled for July.

President Trump will meet with oil and gas executives this week, per a major lobbying group and news reports.

Why it matters: The industry — which cut lots of checks for his campaign — is greeting the Trump 2.0 agenda with both enthusiasm and concern.

• Execs are pleased with the deregulatory push, LNG project support, plans for expanded leasing and more.
• But they're worried about tariffs' effect on demand, prices, and supply chain costs.

The big picture: The meeting comes after last week's CERAWeek by S&P Global conference, which mixed focus on growing fossil fuel markets with C-suite angst about trade-related headwinds.

• "[S]lower demand growth, oversupply fears, and near-term uncertainty driven by the U.S. administration cast a shadow on broader sentiment in most of our sideline conversations this year," RBC Capital Markets said in a note.

State of play: "President Trump's energy agenda has set our nation on a path toward energy dominance," said Bethany Williams, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, whose members are meeting with Trump.

• "We appreciate the opportunity to discuss how American oil and natural gas are driving economic growth, strengthening our national security and supporting consumers with the president and his team," Williams said.

What we're watching: Any hints that the meeting sways Trump on trade policy.

NOAA and the Air Force are struggling to meet growing demand for their specialized Hurricane Hunter fleets, a new federal report finds.

Why it matters: The Government Accountability Office study floats ways that the agencies can maintain the accuracy of extreme weather forecasts.

• On the personnel side, NOAA worsened its situation when it laid off workers in its Office of Marine and Aviation Operations as part of probationary employee cuts on Feb. 27.

Zoom in: The GAO found that the two agencies — which fly separate missions into hurricanes and perform flights aimed at improving forecasts of atmospheric rivers — are facing increasing demands for their services but don't coordinate well with each other.

• They also have been unable to fly a number of missions in recent years due to maintenance issues and personnel shortages.
• These challenges haven't been clearly communicated to Congress, the report found, making budget shortfalls more likely.

Both the Pentagon and NOAA accepted most of the GAO's conclusions and pledged to take actions to improve information sharing.

Yes, but: The NOAA layoffs of more than a dozen personnel included members of Hurricane Hunter flight crews and mechanics, threatening its ability to meet basic mission requirements for the 2025 hurricane season.

• The agency has since hired back three flight crew members, though some aircraft mechanics and other support staff weren't brought back, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The intrigue: The GAO report, released March 14, indicates the two agencies need to make changes to avoid shortfalls of their highly specialized aircraft.

• The Air Force aircraft lack some of NOAA's specialized meteorological equipment.

🛢️ Fossil fuel advocate and author Alex Epstein created a group called the Energy Freedom Fund and registered it to lobby, per a new filing and Substack post.

• Why it matters: The new group looks to fill its own lane, Epstein writes on Substack, arguing that today, "the most influential lobbyists do not lobby consistently for freedom."
• Driving the news: "There are many good people who often lobby for the freedom of particular sectors of energy when those sectors are under attack, but those people often will also lobby for special preferences at others' expense," he posted last night.

🆕 First Solar is boosting its roster by adding Thorn Run Partners and Hollier & Associates, filings show.

• Why it matters: The industry faces a precarious moment as Republicans weigh paring back IRA credits in Capitol Hill budget talks.
• The intrigue: The big manufacturer's work with Hollier & Associates aims to "prohibit China and other CCP-linked companies from accessing 45X tax credits," a filing states.

🇨🇦 Canadian officials are adding more K Street muscle to help with battles over tariffs, Politico reports.

• State of play: Efforts include the province of Saskatchewan retaining the energy-focused lobbying firm HBW Resources.

🇩🇪 A German court today takes up a Peruvian farmer's climate change suit against energy giant RWE, per AP, Reuters and others.

• Why it matters: It could set a precedent on going after companies for past emissions and requiring them to help fund adaptation, Reuters reports.

🇨🇦 Via CBC, "[New] Prime Minister Mark Carney wasted little time in removing a potent point of attack for the Conservatives in recent years: the consumer carbon tax."

🇧🇷 Via Climate Home News, COP30 host Brazil is scheduling world leader speeches well before the summit officially begins in order to "ease pressure on hotels and transport in the medium-sized Amazon city of Belém.

That's the decline in S&P's Global Clean Energy Transition Index over the past year, the Financial Times notes, sending it to five-year lows that preceded the ESG "frenzy."

Why it matters: The slide comes as "uncertainty over political support for the clean energy transition away from fossil fuels depresses the market," the paper reports.