A week-long, polar vortex-related Arctic outbreak is slated to bring frigid conditions next week to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies.

Why it matters: This event is likely to be more intense than the two previous polar vortex cold snaps in the U.S. so far this winter, according to University of Oklahoma meteorologist Jason Furtado.

Threat level: The Arctic air is likely to send temperatures plunging to at least 35 degrees Fahrenheit below average for mid-February across the Midwest and Plains states, with the cold barreling east through the end of the week.

• The National Weather Service is zeroing in on two "surges" of cold, one on Sunday and another Wednesday into Thursday for the Plains states. During the second surge, the frigid air could make it into Texas.
• NWS is calling for "a widespread threat of record cold temperatures" in the Plains and Midwest.
• The East will also get significantly colder than average starting early in the week, the NWS stated in a forecast discussion.

State of play: Computer models have been trending colder with this event over time, as weather systems align across the Northern Hemisphere to drive extremely cold air south into the U.S.

• There's also a likelihood of at least one significant storm that would bring heavy rain and snow from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic the Northeast next week.

Between the lines: This event is consistent with some studies showing how human-caused climate change can favor winter weather patterns with a warmer than usual Arctic and colder than average midlatitudes.

The big picture: Experts told Axios that the cold outbreak is tied to the tropospheric polar vortex, as well as perhaps the vortex in the stratosphere.

• Other major weather players are influencing this, spanning from the tropical Pacific Ocean all the way to Greenland.
• The cold will occur at the same time as the Arctic sees unusually mild conditions, and a strong high pressure area and milder-than-average air takes over in Alaska, according to Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research.

Zoom out: The vortex is an area of low pressure with winds swirling counterclockwise around it .

• It usually keeps the coldest air bottled up over the Far North.

Yes, but: In this case, there is more to it than just the vortex.

• Multiple factors will allow Arctic air to pour across the U.S.-Canada border, including a so-called "blocking pattern" over Greenland and "a spike in Arctic temperatures," Cohen told Axios in an email.
• One metric measuring the uniqueness of this coming weather pattern is at five standard deviations from the average, "which has to be relatively rare," NOAA's Amy Butler told Axios.

Global electricity demand should rise around 4% annually through 2027, IEA estimates in a new analysis.

Why it matters: It's the fastest growth in years as AI, industrial production, air conditioning, EVs and more put new strains on power grids and climate efforts.

• And it's already underway, with a 4.3% jump last year.

😳 Stunning stat: Over the next three years, it sees consumption rising an "unprecedented" 3,500 terawatt-hours.

• "This corresponds to adding more than the equivalent of a Japan to the world's electricity consumption each year," the report finds.

The intrigue: It's also the latest example of analysts acknowledging the difficulty of predicting future data center thirst.

• It notes that data centers' share of China's electricity demand could double from 2025-2027, reaching 6%.

What's next: While we write a lot about rising U.S. power needs, IEA notes that 85% of the additional global demand growth through 2027 will come from emerging and developing nations.

• China alone accounted for over half of last year's increase and is projected to have 6% annual growth the next few years.
• But use is also growing in many developed economies after a stretch of relative stagnation, IEA said.

Full report

✂️ President Trump's deputies have begun laying off large numbers of probationary workers at the Energy Department, per Axios sources and published reports.

• Why it matters: Energy and resource agencies are swept up in Trump 2.0's effort to sharply reduce the size of government. The White House declined to comment on the record.

🇮🇳 The U.S. and India will look to make the U.S. a "leading supplier" of oil, petro-products and LNG to the world's most populous nation, per a joint statement following President Trump's meeting with PM Narendra Modi.

• Why it matters: There's a geopolitical overlay here, given that Russia's oil shipments to India have risen since the invasion of Ukraine (though they fluctuate).
• What we're watching: The U.S. already exports substantial volumes to India, so we'll see how much the leaders' vow changes things.

💻 Trump is really psyched about behind-the-meter power plants to fuel data centers as AI booms.

• The latest: At yesterday's press conference with Modi, Trump said EPA head Lee Zeldin "and his group" will provide approvals "in very rapid form."
• Flashback: Trump also touted the idea in his speech to the World Economic Forum last month.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's (D) lawsuit against President Trump's funding freeze helps reveal specific effects of the restrictions.

State of play: The complaint and documents provided by his office show examples of energy and environmental work now on hold (H/t to NOTUS' Anna Kramer).

• Per his office, the nearly $1.2 billion frozen in Pennsylvania projects includes over $700 million over three years for abandoned mine land reclamation under the 2021 infrastructure law.
• Also frozen: nearly $400 million in 2022 climate law grants for cutting climate pollution, and $156 million under the IRA's "solar for all" program.

The $915 million "restricted" category — subject to what his office calls "undefined" review — includes over $435 million for securing orphaned oil and gas wells.

• It also includes funding for grid modernization and home energy efficiency rebates.
• The suit alleges "flagrantly lawless" actions to thwart key public health and environmental funding and says it's occurring despite multiple courts issuing restraining orders.

The other side: Trump officials have said they're pausing certain funding to ensure alignment with the president's executive orders.

• "These frivolous lawsuits are akin to children throwing pasta at the wall to see if it will stick," Harrison Fields, a White House spokesman, said in a statement.
• He called it "grandstanding" and an effort to "delay much-needed change with legal shenanigans" rather than working with the administration to cut waste, fraud, and abuse.

The bottom line: It's a clash between Trump and a high-profile, swing-state Democratic governor who's often mentioned as a 2028 White House candidate.

Axios Philadelphia has more

A couple things crossed my screen that underscore how data centers are shaking up the energy consumption picture...

📈 East Daley Analytics' base case sees 6 billion cubic feet per day of additional gas demand to fuel data centers, and perhaps more.

• Why it matters: That's a lot for a single sector within the wider picture of rising demand. The whole country averages roughly 90 bcf/day on an annual basis.
• The big picture: They estimate roughly 290 projects totaling around 81 gigawatts of capacity in that base case estimate.

👀 Utility giant Dominion Energy put fresh numbers on data center growth in their Virginia service area, already an industry hub.

• State of play: Their latest investor deck shows 40.2 gigawatts of new contracted capacity at various stages of development — a massive jump from levels in July. H/t to Bloomberg, which has more.

"If we start getting the first electrons flowing on the grid in the 2030s, then that's going to really get the attention of public markets and lots more investors."

Why it matters: The fusion sector will need billions of dollars more than what VCs can provide to reach commercialization.

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