Axios Generate

July 10, 2024
🐪 Halfway there! We've got 1,291 words, 5 minutes.
🚗 Situational awareness: Tesla's share of new U.S. EV sales fell below 50% for the first time last quarter, per Cox Automotive data. NYT has more.
🎹 Happy birthday to Neil Tennant of the Pet Shop Boys, the synth-pop geniuses who have today's intro tune...
1 big thing: FEMA's climate-infused flood standard
As coastal Texas recovers from the first of what is expected to be a fusillade of dangerous Atlantic hurricanes, the Biden administration unveiled new flood risk guidance today aimed at waterproofing public infrastructure.
Why it matters: A key goal of the standard is to avoid rebuilding in the same vulnerable locations, only to see new structures get hit again, with more taxpayer dollars drained in a repetitive cycle.
- The Federal Flood Risk Management Standard requires federal agencies to incorporate current and future flood risks into their decision-making when funding projects, from bridges to fire stations.
Zoom in: Previous standards excluded climate change trends, including the increasing frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events and associated flooding as well as sea level rise.
- By assuming the past climate is the best guide to future hazards, federally funded projects such as hospitals, roads and bridges have been put at greater risk of being damaged or destroyed.
- The new standards, officials told reporters on a press call yesterday, incorporate the non-stationarity of today's climate, including sea level rise.
- Under the new guidelines, which go into effect in early September, FEMA will be permitted to broaden floodplains when planning a project. The agency can also increase the height for raising buildings and roads in vulnerable areas.
- "The new standard also allows us to end the repeat loss cycles of flooding," said FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell.
Yes, but: The new standard, like other executive branch agencies' actions, may be vulnerable to a court challenge based on the recent Chevron deference decision.
- In the 6-3 ruling, the Supreme Court significantly restricted agencies' abilities to interpret unclear statutes based on their in-house expertise.
- "We believe it is authorized under the statutes that we already have," Criswell said regarding the standard's legal vulnerability.
The intrigue: In 2015, President Obama first ordered the revision of the flood risk management standard to improve community resilience.
- The incomplete standard was then revoked under President Trump, but Biden reinstated it via executive order in 2021.
How it works: According to the Biden administration, the new flood standard applies to certain types of projects that FEMA funds. That includes new construction or repairs of buildings and infrastructure that sustained substantial damage.
- It also covers Hazard Mitigation Assistance projects but does not cover homes under the National Flood Insurance Program.
The bottom line: The new standard illustrates how the federal government is still racing to catch up with the increasingly severe climate impacts from 1.3°C (2.34°F) of global average warming since the preindustrial era.
2. Pondering Trump's "dominant" goal


The new GOP platform is two things at once on energy: an aspirational document yet one that arguably describes present reality, too.
Why it matters: The Trump-y document calls for the U.S. to be energy "dominant" and to "drill, baby, drill" and end "crippling restrictions" on production and ... you get the point.
- Missing from the platform is any mention of climate change. It calls for "terminating the Socialist Green New Deal," which exists only as a resolution and has never moved legislatively.
The intrigue: It comes as the U.S. is already the world's largest oil producer — it's not close anymore, as you can see above — the largest gas producer, and the largest LNG exporter.
- The Energy Department's independent stats arm sees U.S. oil production growing to an average of almost 13.8 million barrels per day in 2025.
- LNG exports are also slated to keep rising based on projects approved and under construction.
- Looking at all energy sources together, production now outpaces consumption.
Yes, but: Republicans and some industry officials argue the U.S. isn't reaching its full potential and that President Biden closed off exploration that would help sustain future production and investment.
- They point to steps like barring development on huge swaths of Alaskan federal lands and the pause on new LNG export licenses to major markets, to name just two.
- Critics essentially argue the White House is sowing the seeds for reduced geopolitical leverage.
The bottom line: "Dominance" is a relative term.
3. Microsoft's new CO2 move and more business notes
🛒 Microsoft will buy 500,000 metric tons of CO2 removal credits over six years from Occidental Petroleum's direct air capture subsidiary, the companies said.
- Why it matters: It's the largest-ever single purchase of carbon removal credits via DAC, 1PointFive and Microsoft said.
- The intrigue: Tech giants face lots of climate scrutiny amid data center growth to enable generative AI deployment.
- State of play: The removals will occur at the Stratos DAC plant under construction in Texas. Terms were not disclosed.
- Catch up quick: Microsoft, which is active in the CO2 removal and renewables markets, aims to be carbon-negative by 2030. But it recently disclosed that its emissions last year were 29.1% above 2020 levels.
🚗 Via CNN, "China's BYD, which vies with Tesla for the title of the world's top maker of battery electric vehicles, has agreed to build a $1 billion car factory in Turkey, the Turkish government has announced."
- Why it matters: It will enable BYD to avoid new EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, because Turkey is in a "customs union" with the bloc, they report.
4. The intensifying glare on solar trade
A recently formed group pushing for new tariffs on Chinese-linked solar equipment has added lobbying muscle on both sides of the aisle.
Why it matters: Efforts by the Defend Solar USA Alliance underscore the high stakes and intensifying Beltway scramble over solar trade policy.
Driving the news: A new filing shows it tapped Bill Ghent, a former top aide to now-Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper (D), to lobby via the firm Avoq.
- A separate filing in May shows former senior GOP appropriations aide Hamilton Bloom working with them via Venture Government Strategies.
- The group, which doesn't disclose its members, also says policymakers must ensure Chinese firms don't benefit from IRA manufacturing tax subsidies.
Catch up quick: In April, domestic solar equipment manufacturers petitioned U.S. officials to slap new tariffs on low-cost, Chinese-linked exports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Friction point: The ongoing case has split the industry, with developers fighting against new tariffs on cells and modules from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam
Yesterday the American Council on Renewable Energy released a report saying the penalties would increase costs and slow deployment.
5. On my screen: AI and Aramco
🧠 There are good tools to limit generative AI's immense and growing power thirst, IBM's sustainability chief Christina Shim writes in the Harvard Business Review.
- Why it matters: Data center energy demand is helping to push up U.S. electricity usage, making it harder to decarbonize the grid.
- How it works: Her essay flags strategies around AI model training and use, such as chip prototypes up to 14 times more efficient. Another example: use of "open source" codes has advantages like making existing AI models better, "instead of tapping our energy grids to forever build new models."
🛢️ The Financial Times has a nice look at the thinking behind Saudi Arabia's investment in Horse, a builder of internal combustion engines.
- Why it matters: The piece speaks to the Saudi's wider strategy. It marries support for emerging tech with confidence that oil — and with it internal combustion engines — will be a massive market for decades to come.
- What they're saying: "It will be incredibly expensive for the world to completely stamp out, or do without internal combustion engines. If you look at affordability and a lot of other factors, I do think they will be around for a very, very long time," Yasser Mufti, an executive VP at Saudi Aramco.
6. 🚗 Tech number of the day: up to $1.2 billion
That's the newly announced — though not yet final — DOE loan for ENTEK to build a new Indiana plant for manufacturing battery separators.
Why it matters: They're critical parts of batteries used in electric vehicles. Reuters has more.
📨 Did a friend, colleague or even a frenemy send you this newsletter? Welcome, please sign up.
🙏 Thanks to Chris Speckhard and Chuck McCutcheon for edits to today's edition, along with the brilliant Axios Visuals team.
Sign up for Axios Generate






