New polling shows steep declines in Republican Americans' support for solar and especially wind power — data that lands as GOP lawmakers weigh bills to curtail incentives.

Why it matters: The Pew Research Center survey reveals Democrats' challenge in trying to exact a political price for scuttling IRA credits.

• If this poll is right, it doesn't look like ending the credits would create jeopardy with the GOP base — especially if these trend lines continue.
• But roughly 9 in 10 Democrats polled support more wind and solar, making renewables popular on an overall basis. That matters in swing districts.

The big picture: The poll of 5,085 U.S. adults — conducted from April 28 to May 4 — shows steep erosion in just five years among Republicans (see above).

• Support for wind, which President Trump especially dislikes, is under 50%.
• "Republicans' views on the nation's energy priorities are now the reverse of what they were in 2020," Pew said.

A few other data points from the wide-ranging poll...

⚛️ Nuclear support is growing across the aisle. Sixty-nine percent of GOP and GOP-leaning respondents want to see more nuclear power, up from 51% in 2016.

• Among Dems and Dem-leaners, it's at 52%, up from 38% in 2016.

🛢️ Pew highlights a wider GOP shift. Today 67% of Republicans surveyed say producing fossil fuels should be a more important priority than wind and solar.

• In 2020, 65% said renewables should be the higher priority.

🏭 There's a sharp divide on regulations, too. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans say it's possible to cut back environmental rules while still protecting air and water.

• Just 32% of Democrats have the same view.

What we're watching: George Mason University's Ed Maibach tells me that Pew's renewables results track with a soon-to-drop survey from the school's Center for Climate Change Communication and Yale researchers.

• "The erosion of support for clean energy among Republicans is almost certainly driven primarily by Donald Trump's, his administration's, Fox News' and other MAGA pundits' relentless bad-mouthing of clean energy," he said via email.
• "Relentless message repetition is the key to public communication effectiveness, even [when] the messages are factually wrong," said Maibach, the group's director and founder.

The other side: Republicans who are paring back hundreds of billions of dollars in IRA credits and grants for renewables, EVs and much more call them part of a "green new scam."

• Senate environmental committee Republicans, in releasing their portion of the budget plan yesterday that scuttles many grants, said it "promotes fiscal responsibility by rescinding taxpayer dollars spent through the wasteful and bloated IRA."

Of note: Responses from the entire sample of 5,085 adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.6%.

What's next: Senate Republicans could soften House plans to quickly end and restrict many tax credits.

• All eyes are on the Finance Committee, which writes tax policy and hasn't released its plan.

Things are totally chill with Elon Musk and Donald Trump — not! Tesla's stock fell 14% yesterday when their public spat went completely nuclear.

Why it matters: Investors clearly see downside risk for Tesla in the meltdown.

• "The potential methods for Trump to make Elon's life, and Tesla's efforts, more difficult are limitless," iSeeCars.com executive analyst Karl Brauer said via email, calling this a reason for Tesla's stock drop.

Yes, but: The threat level is unclear. As my colleague Nathan Bomey points out, Tesla doesn't get significant revenue from federal contracts.

• GOP and White House plans to kill EV tax credits, and auto emissions rules that benefit Tesla via regulatory credit revenue, were set even before the Musk-Trump rupture.
• But maybe the trader hive-mind saw potential softening before the blowup.

What they're saying: "Trump's policy toward electric cars would've been the same no matter what, and that policy was never going to benefit EVs, including ones that have a 'Tesla' badge on them," Brauer said.

Threat level: Tesla has lots of intersection with federal policies and approvals on autonomy — which Musk sees as key to Tesla's future — and more.

• Tesla's energy business has stakes in the "one big beautiful bill" fight in Congress. It's urging the Senate to retain credits for residential solar, and home- and utility-scale storage.
• And "Musk could also lose leverage on other issues important to Tesla, such as Trump's tariffs on China's critical minerals," E&E News reports.

🗞️The latest: It could all blow over. The automaker's share price is up 4% in pre-market trading on signs of a Trump-Musk rapprochement.

The intrigue: Musk's rightward turn and alliance with Trump are among the reasons that Tesla sales have slumped lately, analysts say.

• A galaxy-brained thought: if Musk and Trump don't make up and the feud continues, Tesla could become less toxic with left-of-center EV buyers.
• This seems unlikely! But these are unusual times.

What we're watching: Whether or not Trump and Musk quickly take steps to make up.

Data centers' insatiable appetite for electricity is testing the ability of tech firms to meet their ambitious goals to go carbon-free.

Why it matters: Google and Amazon have poured huge sums into low-carbon energy, but the efforts are losing ground to breakneck demand for AI.

What they're saying: "I don't think that it should be considered a failure or the wrong goal if we only achieve 90%," Google's Will Conkling told Axios in a panel discussion, referring to the company's aim to reach net-zero emissions by 2030.

• "Our goal remains as close to 100% as possible, and we think we're going to get really close."

Zoom in: Google anticipating it will fall short of its 2030 goal says much more about energy markets than it does about Google.

• The energy landscape today is vastly different from 2020, when Google pledged in 10 years to supply all of its data centers and campuses with 24/7 carbon-free energy.
• U.S. power demand at the time was stable. Solar, wind and battery prices had plummeted, nuclear energy companies were scouring for ways to keep their aging plants online, and companies were making significant inroads in efficiency.

The latest: The explosion in AI demand is projected to unleash unprecedented electricity consumption, soaring to roughly 150 GW of new demand through 2030 — akin to adding 15 New York Cities to U.S. grids in less than five years.

• The surge could push electricity prices higher, worsen backlogs to add new generation to grids, and lengthen project delivery timelines.
• New types of generation, such as advanced geothermal and next-generation small modular reactors (SMRs), meanwhile, remain years away.

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Retaining 45V commencement of construction through at least December 31, 2029, would allow for the minimum runway needed for the multi-year development cycles these projects require. Anything less puts billions in committed investments — and tens of thousands of jobs — at risk.

Why it matters: The letter is floating a compromise between House plans to quickly kill hydrogen credits and the current law, which provides developers until 2033 to start construction.