What Trump's wind order can and can't do
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Image courtesy of BloombergNEF
This chart ☝️ helps explain why President Trump's anti-wind executive order could have limited effects for onshore projects. But offshore, there's far more jeopardy.
Why it matters: Wind is the largest U.S. source of renewable power and provides 10% of the nation's electricity, but growth has slowed in recent years.
- It now faces fresh hurdles with the EO that, at least temporarily, halts leasing and permitting in federal lands and waters.
The big picture: Most onshore development has been elsewhere, as that map via the research firm BloombergNEF shows.
- A "lack of federal oversight may save onshore wind," its note finds. Wind has flourished in red states and has bipartisan support.
Yes, but: Onshore projects on private lands can require federal approvals or consultations, like when sensitive species are involved.
- It's not immediately clear how the order might affect development in these areas.
- "Of onshore wind projects, 99% are on private land, so they cannot be blocked by federal action," the Natural Resources Defense Council said.
- The American Clean Power Association offers the same stat in The Washington Post.
Threat level: Offshore projects, which are in federal waters, are more directly imperiled.
- The order bars new leasing. It doesn't take immediate aim at projects already approved and under construction.
- But it launches a review of existing leases that could bring terminations or amendments.
- Overall, there's "significant uncertainty" for 18 gigawatts worth of planned projects, BloombergNEF finds.
What we're watching: Trump's move explicitly thwarts the recently green-lit Lava Ridge wind farm in Idaho, but ClearView Energy Partners says the phrasing could imperil approved offshore projects, too.
- "[W]e think the [attorney general] might also seek to target finalized offshore wind projects currently facing legal challenges," the research firm said in a note.
State of play: Joe Biden's regulators approved 11 large wind projects in federal waters, which his Interior Department called enough to power over six million homes.
- Three of these Atlantic coast projects are under construction, two have started onshore work, and one is complete, per E&E News.
The bottom line: BloombergNEF warns of major delays for projects that have not reached final investment decisions.
- Developers were already far off pace for the Biden-era goal of 30 gigawatts of offshore capacity operating by 2030. Now it's even further away.
