While plenty of fossil fuels will power data centers, a big new report argues that fears about AI speeding up climate change "appear overstated."

Why it matters: Weighing AI's electricity thirst against ways it can help cut emissions is a wild card in the global energy and carbon future.

Driving the news: The International Energy Agency just dropped a detailed analysis of the AI-energy-climate nexus. Some major findings...

• Data centers accounted for about 1.5% of global electricity use last year. It's projected to more than double by 2030 to surpass Japan's current overall demand.
• In IEA's "base case," renewables make the largest contribution to meeting data center demand growth through 2035, followed by gas, though it varies a lot by region.
• On local levels, grids are already strained and unless risks are addressed, about 20% of planned data center development could be delayed.

Stunning stat: "A typical AI-focused data centre consumes as much electricity as 100,000 households, but the largest ones under construction today will consume 20 times as much."

The intrigue: IEA doesn't really see AI as a climate devil or savior.

• It cites AI's ability to improve renewables integration, boost efficiency and detect methane leaks, among other benefits.
• "We estimate that emissions reductions from the broad application of existing AI-led solutions to be equivalent to around 5% of energy-related emissions in 2035," the report finds.

Reality check: Nobody knows the future energy mix, AI's climate benefits, the data center growth path and more. The word "bubble" is surfacing.

• IEA is up-front about uncertainty, offering three sensitivity cases beyond its "base case" that models current regs and industry server projections.

The bottom line: "The widespread adoption of existing AI applications could lead to emissions reductions that are far larger than emissions from data centres — but also far smaller than what is needed to address climate change," IEA finds.

Go deeper: I'm just scratching the surface of the report, so do take it for a spin.

Data centers are spreading across the country, with plans for massive additional investment and construction.

• Why it matters: Innovation infrastructure, once concentrated in coastal bubbles, is sprouting nationwide.

The big picture: The world's densest hub, Data Center Alley, is in Northern Virginia, as you can see in this cool map above from Axios data wizard Erin Davis.

• 40% of U.S. data center employees are in five states: California, Texas, Florida, New York and Georgia, the U.S. Census Bureau says.

What's next: IEA's new report we cited above sees data centers accounting for almost half of U.S. electricity demand growth through 2030.

The bottom line: The country's data centers do many things — think streaming services, storage, payment processing, lots more.

• Right now AI is a small-ish share of the total picture.
• But AI growth is slated to bring many massive new, power-hungry complexes onto the landscape.

Trump officials are scaling back work by an interagency group Congress established that produces the premier federal report on climate change effects and risks.

Why it matters: The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) crafts the congressionally mandated National Climate Assessment.

• The analysis, which arrives every four years-ish, is a key avenue for informing policymakers at all levels, researchers, NGOs and the public.
• The last appeared in 2023.

Driving the news: NASA is "streamlining its contract providing technical, analytical, and programmatic support" for the USGCRP, a spokesperson said.

• The contract is widely reported to be with the consulting firm ICF International, which did not respond to an inquiry.
• NASA is working with the White House science office on how to "best support" the USGCRP while "also increasing efficiencies" across the 14 agencies and advisory panel that support it, the NASA spokesperson said.

"The operations and structure of the USGCRP are currently under review," a White House official tells Axios.

Threat level: Several news outlets say officials are hollowing out the program.

• Politico, which first reported the moves, warns of a "potentially fatal blow" to the National Climate Assessment.
• Science and Politico report NASA is canceling its support contract with ICF, while the NYT reports on "stop-work" orders.
• ICF "had been supplying most of the technical support and staffing" to the USGCRP, the NYT reports.

What we're watching: The shape of the USGCRP going forward.

• Andy Miller, a retired EPA scientist who worked with the USGCRP, predicted on social media that Trump officials will re-shape the next NCA.
• He suspects they'll "cherry pick" info to greatly play down climate risks and costs.

📊 Oil markets are volatile in response to President Trump's overall tariff pause yesterday that still puts massive levies on China.

• State of play: Brent crude soared above $65 per barrel after sinking as low as the $58 range. But this morning it lost ground again, trading at $63.78.
• Why it matters: "[T]here's still plenty of uncertainty on the trade front. This uncertainty is still likely to drag on global growth, which is clearly a concern for oil demand," ING analysts said.

💵 Via Reuters, "Taiwan state-backed bodies could over the next decade buy an extra $200 billion from the United States and bump up the percentage of LNG it gets from the country by one-third to help narrow the trade deficit, the economy minister said on Thursday."

Let's spend another moment with President Trump's order telling the Justice Department to go after various state and local climate laws and rules.

Catch up quick: The order calls out the "climate superfund" laws in Vermont and New York, and California's cap-and-trade system, but its scope is potentially far wider.

• It urges DOJ to review and possibly act against policies that the order alleges are "burdening" domestic energy.

What they're saying: TD Cowen Washington Research Group sees "no real constitutional or preemption risk" for in-state renewable and clean electricity standards, carbon trading or low-carbon transport fuel standards.

• But its note does see jeopardy for the New York and Vermont laws that seek billions in fees from fossil fuel producers to address climate harms and adaptation.
• Red states and industry groups are already battling the laws in court.

What we're watching: "As seen in other contexts, when lacking a legal justification, the Trump Admin is open to pressuring states into compliance by withholding non-related federal funds as leverage," TD Cowen analysts write.

Sen. Brian Schatz is out with bipartisan legislation that would unleash AI to protect communities from extreme weather events, Axios was first to report.

Why it matters: The bill, first seen by Axios, is a serious effort to lean on artificial intelligence to better predict and respond to increasingly devastating wildfires, hurricanes, floods and other disasters.

• The legislation comes as NOAA faces steep cuts to staffing and climate change initiatives.

What's inside: The TAME Extreme Weather and Wildfires Act, co-sponsored by GOP Sen. Tim Sheehy, would direct NOAA to develop a U.S. global weather dataset to train AI forecasting models.

• NOAA would also partner with the private and academic sectors on AI weather and wildfire forecasting.
• Rep. Scott Franklin introduced a House companion bill.

Unlock the whole story, and if you need smart, quick intel on energy and climate policy for your job, get Axios Pro Policy.

That's the share of Americans who would consider buying an EV in a newly released Gallup survey, down from 55% in the same poll in 2023.

• 40% "might" consider and 8% are "seriously considering."

Why it matters: While the poll shows a drop, the 48% vastly exceeds EVs' current share of the sales mix.

(H/t Washington Post.)