Are there energy policy implications of Democrats' suddenly-tougher road to a House majority? Absolutely.

Why it matters: It could mean less chance of tough oversight of the Trump administration's energy policy decisions — and maybe even a greater chance of a permitting deal — if the House stays in Republican hands.

Catch up quick: On Friday, Virginia's Supreme Court struck down the state's new map that was slated to give Democrats several more seats.

• The ruling — combined with other political map developments of late — erodes some of Democrats' strong chance of retaking the House.

What we're watching: It's all hypothetical of course, but onward ...

🕵️ Oversight. House and Senate Dems are chomping at the bit to probe White House energy and climate decisions — and may not get the chance.

• Think the buybacks of offshore wind leases, EPA's endangerment finding repeal, restriction of onshore renewables and any number of things.
• But investigations with teeth can't happen in the minority, and retaking the Senate has always been a steep climb.

🛠️ Permitting. The evolving map could change the political calculus around a permitting overhaul — something with broad support, but fiendishly hard to actually get done.

• Glenn Schwartz of the research and analysis firm Rapidan Energy Group — which sees just a 25% chance of a permitting deal this year — emphasized the company still projects that the Dems will win the House. But he was kind enough to indulge me anyway.
• If the lame duck session arrives with the same power balance looming in 2027, the demands of high gasoline and power prices could make lawmakers more flexible.

"[I]f no side is going to improve its leverage due to the midterms, then there's no real reason to wait for a better deal when both parties agree some sort of permitting reform is needed to address existing energy emergencies," Schwartz, who oversees the firm's policy work, tells me via email.

🗳️ Campaign tactics. Josh Barro, a centrist Democratic political analyst, argues the tougher map should push Dem candidates rightward on topics including energy.

• "We must give voters in red-leaning districts confidence that when their candidates break with unpopular Democratic positions on issues like immigration, crime, fossil fuels, racial preferences, and trans participation in women's sports, that will matter for lawmaking," Barro wrote Friday.

💵 Crude oil prices are up to start the week, after President Trump rejected Iran's response to the latest draft idea to end the war.

• The latest: The global benchmark Brent crude is up over 3% to $104.37 this morning.
• What they're saying: ING analysts say that while one would expect markets to become "increasingly fatigued by the deluge of headlines and the back-and-forth," instead oil remains "highly sensitive to noise around Iran."

⛽ U.S. gasoline prices have backed off a few cents in recent days but still average $4.52 per gallon for regular, per AAA, while market analysis firm GasBuddy has it slightly lower.

• Yes, but: Oil prices rising again could bring fresh pump increases this week, per GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan. And he warns diesel prices in much of the Great Lakes region are nearing records amid "ongoing refinery issues."

📈 Via the FT, "Shipments of coal have surged in recent months as countries search for alternative fuels to replace oil and gas supplies disrupted by the ongoing Middle East conflict."

Uber is acknowledging the risks of driverless electric cars — from jobs to congestion to safety — while launching a new public policy push to break the logjams slowing the transition to autonomy.

Why it matters: After years of battling cities and labor groups over ridesharing, Uber — with up to $10 billion in potential autonomous vehicle bets at stake — is trying a new tack.

Friction point: "We won't succeed in having AVs in places like Chicago or Boston or New York City — incredibly important markets — if we are not engaging on what we know are the tough issues," Harry Hartfield, Uber's director of AVs and AI policy, tells Axios.

Driving the news: Uber is addressing those concerns directly in a new policy paper first shared with Axios.

• It concedes that robotaxi deployments will always be shaped by the realities of infrastructure, regulation and the needs of individual markets, and will require partnerships with officials and workers.
• The paper is also a call to action for lawmakers and governments, arguing the move to autonomy is already underway.

Full story

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) opposes Democratic rival Graham Platner's Friday call for ending federal gasoline and diesel taxes.

Why it matters: High pump prices are a big deal in the midterms — and Democrats' uphill path to retake the Senate runs through Maine.

Driving the news: Collins noted that the gas tax funds highways and transit projects, so Platner's plan "would exacerbate Maine's already grossly underfunded roads."

• She criticized his idea of replacing gas tax revenue with higher taxes on the ultra-rich.

"His proposal to offset this revenue with a tax that does not even exist and has never made it past the first step of introduction shows just how little he understands about the job he is applying for," she said.

What we're watching: Other races. James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee in Texas, also wants to suspend gas and diesel taxes.

• Don't be surprised if this idea surfaces in other competitive races.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said yesterday the Trump administration is "open" to suspending the federal gasoline tax amid high pump prices.

Catch up quick: Wright, asked about it on NBC's "Meet the Press," said "we're open to all ideas" to lower costs for consumers and businesses.

• But "everything has tradeoffs," he said.

Flashback: Last week, a White House official said the idea was "not currently under consideration."

Full story

⚡Via Bloomberg, Blackstone Inc. and Halliburton Co. are investing a combined $1 billion into VoltaGrid, a startup that makes gas-powered microgrids for data centers.

🔋 Fast-charging battery startup Nyobolt said last week it's raised a $60 million Series C. Go deeper

⛏️ Magnesium startup Magrathea raised a $24 million Series A to develop its demo project. Go deeper

⚛️ A joint venture between investing giant Brookfield and nuclear developer startup The Nuclear Company shows how startups are gaining momentum in the traditionally conservative nuclear sector. Go deeper

🔋Moment Energy, an EV battery repurposing company, raised $40m in Series B funding. Evok Innovations led, joined by Amazon's Climate Pledge Fund and In-Q-Tel. TechCrunch has more.

🌊 Panthalassa, the wave-energy startup aiming to power AI chips at sea, raised $140 million in Series A money led by Peter Thiel, with participation from a bunch of VC heavyweights.

Talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals for a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis.

"That's why I keep coming back to the same point: AI/data centers may be one of the best things to happen to grid investment in decades."