The Iran war is drawing fresh scrutiny to American crude oil exports as a way to curb skyrocketing fuel prices.

The big picture: The U.S. has become one of the world's largest oil exporters since a law changed a decade ago allowing crude to flow beyond American borders.

Yes, but: Even if President Trump invoked an export ban, the effect would likely be limited — like most of the levers he can pull to tame runaway oil and gasoline prices.

Driving the news: Reinstating the ban was floated earlier this week inside the White House, but it's not currently a leading option, administration officials and others say.

• When asked Wednesday on CNN about restricting oil exports, Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized the worldwide nature of oil markets.

"We have global markets in energy for products, for oil and all that," Wright said. "No discussion about doing that."

Friction point: Trump has few tools to quickly push oil prices down as long as the Strait of Hormuz — an artery for about 20% of global oil supply — remains effectively shut.

What they're saying: "At present, export restrictions are not on the table, but if oil prices surge and are sustained, the administration will have to consider novel responses," said Glenn Schwartz, director of energy policy service at consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.

The intrigue: Oil prices are set globally, which makes the politics and economics of gasoline prices complicated and sometimes counterintuitive.

• Industry officials argue more oil on global markets ultimately lowers prices everywhere.
• But the same dynamic means no country — even the world's largest producer — is insulated when prices spike.

Between the lines: Calls to restrict exports tap into a politically potent instinct during shortages: Keep scarce resources at home.

• That impulse helped drive the original export ban more than 50 years ago.

How it works: "Restricting exports would have only a minor, temporary dampening effect on domestic crude and/or refined product prices," Schwartz said by email. "Before long, U.S. prices would rise again as drillers and refiners reacted to restrictions by reducing activity."

• Not to mention, U.S. refineries are maxed out in their capacity to process domestic crude, and the "excess has to be exported," according to Ben Cahill, director of energy markets and policy at University of Texas-Austin.

Flashback: Congress imposed the ban after the 1973 Arab oil embargo sent gasoline prices soaring.

• Congress lifted it in 2015, when then-President Obama signed a deal pairing the change with renewable-energy subsidies.
• The law preserved presidential authority to restrict exports for up to a year in certain scenarios, including supply shortages or unusually high domestic prices.

The bottom line: "When Congress lifted the export ban in 2015, they explicitly preserved this authority," Schwartz said.

Can suspending the Jones Act help temper pump price rises? Maybe a little, but the White House would also spark fresh disputes with labor.

Why it matters: The White House is scrambling to limit the consumer fallout of the Iran war.

• One tool could be temporarily waiving the 1920 law that allows only U.S. ships to carry cargo between domestic ports, the White House said yesterday.

What we're watching: It's unclear how much waivers might affect average gasoline prices that have climbed, per AAA data, roughly 63 cents per gallon since the strikes on Iran began.

What they're saying: "It is helpful. It will provide relief," Colin Grabow, an associate director at the libertarian Cato Institute's Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies. "But I do think we should set expectations. It will be, probably, modest."

• He estimates that it would offset single-digit cents per gallon at the retail level (but to be clear, Cato scholars have long argued the Jones Act has widespread negative consequences).

How it works: Grabow cites opportunities to more easily move fuel from the Gulf Coast to ports on the East Coast, which has higher costs.

The other side: Maritime labor unions attacked waivers, saying they won't change prices

• And some others agree it would feel so symbolic within a day. Mizuho Securities analyst Robert Yawger said he backs open trade but offered several reasons why this would not be effective.
• One, he said in a note, is that new players "would have to break into a market that has been monopolized by US tankers for years." Another is that most East Coast fuel comes by pipeline.

🇷🇺 The Treasury Department is waiving sanctions on Russian crude for 30 days as Trump officials seek to loosen markets the Iran conflict is throttling.

• State of play: Secretary Scott Bessent posted that the temporary policy applies to Russian barrels "stranded" at sea. There are an estimated 124 million barrels of Russian oil on the water worldwide.
• What we're watching: Bessent said Moscow's oil money comes mostly from taxes at the point of extraction. But the waivers will likely intensify Democratic criticism that Trump's Iran policy is a windfall for the Kremlin.

👀 Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in separate press interviews, said military escorts for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz could begin relatively soon.

• What's next: Wright told CNBC the end of March is a possibility. Go deeper.

📊 Brent crude oil prices are hovering around $100 per barrel this morning. The average U.S. gasoline price is $3.63 per gallon, up from slightly under $3 before the war began, per AAA.

⚖️ The Justice Department sued California over its CO2 rules for cars, the latest tussle over regulatory efforts to speed up EV uptake. Reuters has more.

💵 The Energy Department is making $1.9 billion available for projects to upgrade power grids. Read the solicitation.

🔬 Via The Hill, DOE head Chris Wright told Fox said he'll personally review his X posts after the errant claim that military tanker escorts had begun. DOE said that since-deleted post was a staff error.

🔋 The U.S. International Trade Commission ruled that import of subsidized Chinese active anode material has not "materially" thwarted the development of a U.S. industry.

• The 2-1 decision, which E&E News called a surprise, means there won't be fresh duties imposed.

After a Decade of Missteps, a Texas City Careens Toward a Water-Shortage Catastrophe (Inside Climate News)

Amy says: Yikes, this is a serious and urgent crisis afflicting one of the nation's largest petroleum ports — including for oil exports. If refineries and other oil facilities have to mothball, it could put even more upward pressure on oil prices.

• The quotes are pretty damning. Long and worthy read.

The Iran War Underscores the Need for Bipartisan Energy Policy (The Dispatch)

Chuck says: This essay cites two things holding back a repeat of the comprehensive moves that Congress made after previous 1970s-era energy crises: the ironic success of those initiatives and, of course, the current polarization of energy politics.

Charting Pathways in a Chaotic World (New Energy Industrial Strategy Center)

Ben says: This links to a wonk-tastic tool that analyzes where 155 countries can best compete in clean tech value chains.

Honda is taking roughly $15.7 billion in write-offs and losses as it recalibrates its electric strategy, becoming the latest auto giant to bleed money as EV uptake slows.

• It also announced the cancellation of three planned U.S. models.
• Announcement ... WSJ coverage