HOUSTON — One hub of the world's petro-economy is warily eyeing another as industry titans and President Trump's top lieutenants gather amid historic disruption.

Why it matters: CERAWeek opens today in the U.S. energy capital as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

• The harms — and, yes, opportunities — from the Iran war are unfolding alongside the event that blends market-moving onstage interviews and lots of action in private meetings.

The latest: Oil prices are fluctuating wildly as the conference beg ins in a fluid landscape to say the least.

• Brent crude are down roughly $11 per barrel, or 10%, to $101 this morning after President Trump backed off plans to strike Iran's power plants, claiming progress in talks to reopen the strait.
• U.S. gasoline prices are on the cusp of reaching $4 per gallon, averaging $3.96 today, per AAA.

Inside the room: Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum attended a private dinner here with a range of industry CEOs last night.

• They made the case for the attack on Iran during the wide-ranging discussion, people present said.
• Wright's message was that the U.S. "had to act," citing Iranian actions dating back to 1979 that have killed Americans, but also that the strait must be opened, former BP CEO Bob Dudley, who now chairs the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, told Axios.

Some big themes to watch this week...

😖 Confusion: The strait's status might be muddy for a long time. That complicates decision-making for producers worldwide, investors — really everyone.

• "The biggest source of uncertainty with the Strait is that we now live in the Age of Drones," oil analyst Arjun Murti wrote in a weekend post, which could prevent a simple open-or-closed binary.
• "The question is: how many people with how many drones does it take to disrupt flows, and how do you offset that?" he adds.

⏰ Short-term vs. long-term: Beyond the immediate shock, we'll be watching how the war affects long-term strategies across fossil fuels and clean tech.

• This stunning example of risks to seaborne commodities could boost some countries' renewables and nuclear efforts.
• But the natural gas supply and price convulsions could also bring more Asian reliance on coal. The global LNG market probably won't be the same for years (see card 6).

⚡ AI, power, and nuclear love: Chipmakers have a major presence this year as AI — and the rush to power it — shakes up power industry planning.

🌍 A climate split-screen: The topic has fallen on many government and C-suite radars, but warming marches onward.

• A just-released World Meteorological Organization analysis shows Earth's "energy imbalance" — how much energy enters and leaves the planet — reached the highest point since observational records began in 1960.
• While it's not the top theme, there are still sessions about climate.

🇻🇪 Venezuela: It was eons ago — er, 79 days — that the U.S. ousted Nicolás Maduro and vowed to enable new oil, gas, and mining investment there.

• CERAWeek will offer a sense of industry interest and plans.

HOUSTON — Each day this week, we'll bring you five quick things to know about the news emanating from Houston.

Why it matters: The sheer amount of live programming and news can feel overwhelming. We're here to help distill things to what matters most.

Driving the news: To kick us off, we're sharing some key numbers about the gathering.

• 300: The number of startups participating in the Agora this year. Agora, the tech-focused section of the conference that's 9 years old, had 250 last year.
• $11,000 and $3,000: The prices, respectively, for a conference-wide pass and an Agora-only pass.
• 180 and 10,000+: The number of people at the first CERAWeek compared to this year's.
• 70: The number of people working full time on the conference.
• 80: The age that longtime conference host Dan Yergin, the Pulitzer-winning energy historian, will be next year.

The bottom line: "This conference is a lot bigger than one person," said Yergin, declining to comment on when he might step back from the host role.

• "But at the end of the day, I'm still the person who wrote 'The Prize,' 'The Quest' and 'The New Map.'''
• Yergin, listing his books, quipped that he might pursue another after this year's gathering: "Maybe with AI, I could write a book that won't take seven years."

Nvidia and startup Emerald AI said today they're working with major U.S. energy companies to develop a new class of data centers designed to flex their power use and connect to the grid faster.

Why it matters: The effort reflects a growing push to turn AI data centers from massive power consumers into more dynamic grid participants as electricity demand from AI surges.

Driving the news: The companies — including AES, Constellation, NextEra Energy, Invenergy and Vistra — plan to collaborate on energy and infrastructure approaches to support so-called "flexible AI factories."

• The design pairs Nvidia's new reference architecture with Emerald AI software that can adjust computing workloads in response to grid conditions.

Yes, but: The announcement is light on firm project commitments or timelines, suggesting the effort is — for now — more of a framework for collaboration than a buildout plan.

Full story

HOUSTON — Private meetings between top U.S. officials and industry CEOs are already underway here.

Why it matters: Companies are trying to make sense of both today's tumult from the Middle East conflict and longer-term policy plans.

The latest: Wright, Burgum, and Jarrod Agen — the top aide on the White House "energy dominance council" — met with CEOs at The Grove restaurant last night.

• The Iran war and opportunities in Venezuela were both topics of discussion, Xcoal Energy and Resources CEO Ernie Thrasher said afterward.
• A senior administration official said the dinner also addressed White House efforts to boost domestic oil, gas, and critical minerals production — including permitting overhauls.

"A lot of the group in that room have a lot of projects that they want to get up and running. These are obviously longer-term, but it helps the overall picture of diversifying the supply chain," a senior administration official told reporters.

Zoom in: The many attendees included the CEOs of oilfield services giant Baker Hughes, data center power provider Fermi America and huge power company Invenergy.

The bottom line: CERAWeek is sometimes called the Super Bowl of energy conferences, but lots of the real action is on the sidelines.

👀 OpenAI is in advanced talks to buy electricity from Sam Altman-backed fusion startup Helion Energy, according to a person familiar with the situation.

• Why it matters: The move shows OpenAI is serious about tapping fusion energy to help meet massive power demands.
• Driving the news: The talks center on OpenAI receiving the equivalent of 5 gigawatts by 2030, scaling to 50 gigawatts by 2035.
• Reality check: Achieving that much power that fast from fusion, which isn't yet commercialized, is quite a reach.
• Between the lines: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who is an investor in Helion, has stepped down as Helion's board chair and is no longer involved in the company's board. Full story.

💵 ICYMI: Small modular reactor and fuel startup X-energy filed plans to go public with regulators. Full story.

Damage to Qatar's LNG infrastructure and importer's need to diversify supplies is pushing up the market value of publicly traded U.S. exporters.

Why it matters: QatarEnergy estimated that damage from Iranian strikes on its Ras Laffan site will take years to fully repair.

• That tightens the market. So does the de facto Strait of Hormuz closure. The conflict also highlights security of U.S. supply that doesn't transit the waterway.
• "U.S. LNG exporters should benefit from the tighter macro, as well as the increased diversification," Jefferies analysts said in a note.

The big picture: The U.S. is already the world's largest LNG shipper, and a wave of new supply is coming online in the years ahead from companies like NextDecade.

What they're saying: "All US LNG projects are now in play. Even Alaska. Yeah, I said it," Ira Joseph, a gas market expert with Columbia University's energy think tank.

• He's referring to the highly uncertain proposed Alaska pipeline and LNG proposal.
• "Hard to see Qataris getting out of this mess at only current damage levels. US projects become a beacon unless US administration uses US LNG as leverage to draw European countries into the war," he posted on X.

What we're watching: There are crosscurrents for U.S. exporters.

• Analysts see higher costs potentially boosting gas-to-coal switching and renewables among Asian and European importers.

"The oil the U.S. is allowing Iran to sell is too small to stabilize energy markets, but it is large enough to help Iran fight the war & raise its price for ending it. Truly misguided."

The foreign policy vet is among the voices knocking the U.S. waiver of sanctions on Iranian barrels as the White House looks to loosen the market.

• The other side: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement.