Axios Future of Energy

March 16, 2026
β Welcome back. The Iran war is raging, but AI and nuclear are big stories, too. Today we're exploring...
- The green pivot on nuclear and new deals
- The latest in Iran policy and oil markets
- A climate adaptation exclusive and much more, all in 1,438 words, 5.5 minutes
πΊ "The Axios Show" is back for Season 2: Anduril founder Palmer Luckey talks with Colin Demarest about the Iran war, his red lines for making weapons and why he's so loud on Twitter. Watch the episode on YouTube.
π Happy birthday to Flavor Flav of pioneering rappers Public Enemy, who have today's intro tune...
1 big thing: AI boom drives first-ever NRDC support for nuclear
The AI boom is pushing one of America's most venerable environmental groups to cautiously support nuclear power after decades of resistance.
Why it matters: The Natural Resources Defense Council's position is both a sign of the urgent power demands that AI is creating and a larger shift underway among environmentalists to embrace an energy source many once rallied against.
Driving the news: The NRDC filed comments this month in support of an early step toward restarting an Iowa plant that Google is planning to use for one of its data centers in the region.
"This is unprecedented for us because it marks the first time in our history that we have taken action in support of an individual nuclear power plant," Manish Bapna, president and CEO of NRDC, told Axios in an exclusive interview.
Zoom out: Some high-profile environmentalists are warming to nuclear as AI drives unprecedented electricity demand β and because the power source emits no carbon.
- Former Vice President Al Gore has said it deserves a fresh look, and John Kerry, former climate diplomat, also just penned an article backing nuclear.
The big picture: Deep-pocketed tech companies like Google are racing to secure electricity β ideally, though not necessarily, clean β to power the data centers behind the AI boom.
- The Iowa facility is one of a handful of mothballed nuclear reactors that tech companies are paying to restart. It could reopen as soon as 2029, NRDC says in its filing.
Zoom in: "NRDC's preliminary view is that the plant's restart is likely to have both climate and environmental benefits and consumer benefits," the 56-year-old environmental group wrote in its March 2 comments.
- "[Google's data center project] might otherwise have been wholly or partially powered by some combination of existing coal and natural gas, and new natural gas."
By the numbers: Despite being a leader in wind power, Iowa's coal generation jumped 32% between 2024 and 2025, the filing says, due to growing power demand.
Flashback: NRDC is among environmental groups that have long resisted nuclear power over concerns about radioactive waste and safety β concerns that persist today.
"I think there are people in the environmental movement, and the public more broadly, that understandably have significant concerns about the safety dimensions of nuclear," Bapna said in response to that article. "We share those concerns."
- Among issues raised in its filing, NRDC said the Iowa plant must include safety measures required after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan.
What we're watching: NRDC's comments were filed as part of an interim step toward a full reopening, so it will have opportunities to weigh in again β and potentially change its mind.
2. π¨ Exclusive: Key climate group launches major adaptation push
The Climate Impact Lab, a major University of Chicago-based research hub, is beginning a new phase to help countries adapt to global warming.
Why it matters: Bracing for harms is getting more focus amid recognition that temperatures will blow past Paris Agreement goals.
Driving the news: The lab will "develop a global playbook of data-driven, tested adaptation strategies to address the greatest impacts in the most vulnerable regions β largely in the Global South," it said.
What's next: A new executive director alongside the expanded mission.
- Genevieve Maricle is a former National Security Council climate and development aide in the Biden White House, and was also a top USAID official.
The bottom line: With stronger weather extremes, heat waves and farming impacts already unfolding, "policies to confront climate change must treat adaptation as a co-equal partner with mitigation," the lab said.
3. π Catch up quick on Iran: Shipping, markets, California, SPR
πͺ’ President Trump is working to assemble a coalition of countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and hopes to announce it later this week, four sources tell Axios. Full story.
β½ The average price for U.S. regular gasoline has risen to $3.72 per gallon this morning, per AAA.
π’οΈ ICYMI: Trump invoked a Cold War-era law Friday in a bid to boost oil production off Southern California's coast and meet demand in the wake of the Iran war. Go deeper.
π’οΈICYMI, part 2: The Energy Department dropped details of plans to provide oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, confirming it's structured as an exchange.
4. π AI helps get fusion within reach
Fusion could be commercially possible within a few years β thanks to AI.
Why it matters: Fusion has eluded scientists for decades.
π¬ "I had my first congressional hearing on fusion 45 years ago, and the experts on the panel said it's 50 years out. So I'm getting excited," quipped former Vice President Al Gore, now a leading environmentalist and cleantech investor, in an interview with Axios.
- Fusion is the atomic process that powers the sun. Its potential sounds too good to be true: a clean, near-limitless energy source.
The big picture: AI is poised to help fusion in two ways, according to Andrew Holland, CEO of the Fusion Industry Association:
- Machine learning is helping companies build virtual models that let them test and optimize designs without ever building anything. Partnering with corporate heavyweights Nvidia and Siemens, well-funded fusion startup Commonwealth Fusion Systems is employing this exact strategy.
- Taming fusion plasmas β glowing clouds of charged particles that are inherently unstable and prone to disruptions. Disruptions happen in milliseconds β too fast for human operators. "Machines can move much faster than humans, but they are also able to see patterns in the data as well," Holland said. Google has been at the forefront of this research, alongside Commonwealth Fusion Systems.
π What we're watching: Most fusion startups are aiming for commercial deployment by the early 2030s. And if AI solves fusion, it will help power the future of AI itself.
Read Axios' special deep dive into future science and tech in honor of America's upcoming 250th birthday.
5. π Charted: Driving and prices


This graphic βοΈ drives home something Amy wrote about the other day about the Iran crisis: It would take high pump prices for a long time to massively change consumption.
Why it matters: Historically, miles traveled isn't hugely sensitive to fuel price changes. Lots of driving isn't optional.
Yes, but: What people drive is important, not just how far. Pump pain spurs interest in efficient cars and EVs. There are early signs of EV interest jumping anew.
6. βοΈ U.S. nuclear, fusion companies sign deals with Japanese firms
Two U.S. companies β Realta Fusion and X-energy β today announced separate agreements with Japanese counterparts on fusion and nuclear energy.
Why it matters: The agreements show the eagerness to take advantage of Japan's technical expertise while expanding supply chain connections between the countries β a priority for the Trump administration.
Driving the news: In the first agreement, Japan's Kyoto Fusioneering, or KF, will concentrate on the design, engineering, and fabrication of plasma heating systems optimized for use in Wisconsin-based Realta's magnetic mirror fusion machines, the companies said in a statement.
- In the other agreement, Maryland-based X-energy signed an MOU with Japanese engineering corporation IHI to expand X-energy's supplier base for the Xe-100 reactor.
- That deal sets up a framework to explore opportunities for commercial-scale manufacturing of nuclear components, helping to support both U.S.-Japan industrial trade priorities and execution of X-energy's 11-gigawatt commercial pipeline.
7. π΅ Energy deals you may have missed
βΊοΈ Lightship, a startup building electric camper trailers, is taking a page from Tesla's playbook to efficiently ramp up its vehicle production. Go deeper
π¦ Swarm Aero, a developer of large, swarming drones for everything from defense to environmental observation, raised $35 million. Go deeper
π΅ Climative, whose software guides home energy improvements, is preparing to raise up to $10 million in Series A funding in Q2. Go deeper
π° Coral, an instant rebate provider for energy and HVAC upgrades, raised $7.5 million in pre-seed and seed funding. Go deeper
8. π¬ Quote of the day: Oil pain is Kremlin gain edition
"It is wrong to imply the measure is costless, because it still improves Russia's commercial position at the margin and, more importantly, carries real geopolitical value."β Tatiana Mitrova, a fellow at Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy, in an email exchange
She's commenting on the Treasury Department temporarily waiving sanctions on Russian barrels already at sea, which avoids a Kremlin windfall from extraction taxes.
π Thanks to Chuck McCutcheon and Chris Speckhard for edits to today's newsletter, along with the brilliant Axios Visuals team.
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