Cities and researchers are using AI to map and predict extreme heat risk, but new research suggests it's used far more to identify where people are in danger than to help officials respond.

Why it matters: As climate change intensifies extreme heat, better predictions won't protect vulnerable communities unless governments can turn them into action.

• U.S. deaths associated with high temperatures rose 53% from an annual average of 2,670 in 2000–2009 to more than 4,000 in 2010–2020, according to a 2025 Yale study.

Driving the news: A study published in Climate Risk Management examined existing research on how AI and machine learning are being used to manage extreme heat.

• Of the research papers reviewed, 98.4% focused on prediction and 59.2% on prevention. That's compared with just 10.4% on response, 3.2% on recovery and 1.6% on preparedness — a disparity the authors call a "research-to-implementation gap."
• "Where AI can actually add value is where prediction is central to the decision-making, and that's in scale or providing more granularity," said Karishma V. Patel, a RAND policy researcher who co-authored the study.

State of play: Turning sophisticated heat predictions into government action requires more than advanced models.

• Cornell researcher Jennah Gosciak told Axios that having "robust data systems" that can ingest data from a variety of sources and then make it usable to practitioners "is most of the battle here."

Case in point: Google in June announced it had expanded its AI-powered Heat Resilience data from an initial 14-city pilot to more than 50 cities worldwide, giving urban planners building-level data to help target heat interventions.

• The data uses AI and high-resolution imagery to map roof reflectivity down to individual buildings.
• Google said data from the pilots helped inform decisions in several cities, including cool-roof ordinances and adaptation plans.

Reality check: Better information doesn't necessarily equal better outcomes.

• Gosciak, who spent time as a Public Interest Technology Fellow with New York City Emergency Management, recently compared simpler heat-vulnerability indexes with more complex predictive algorithms for government heat decisions.
• She described one important distinction as "slow versus fast data." Predictive algorithms may be more useful for time-sensitive decisions "tied to a specific trigger event," while simpler indexes can be better suited to longer-term planning.
• One advantage of simpler indexes is that officials can explicitly choose which vulnerable populations to prioritize, added Gosciak, a Ph.D. student in Cornell's Information Science Department.

What's next: The next frontier may be less about making heat forecasts incrementally better and more about connecting predictions to interventions.

• AI's value could lie in helping officials make "near real-time decisions" by integrating changing signals and providing "hyperlocal forecasting at granular levels," Patel said.
• That could help officials respond to heat risks in real time and better understand compound threats involving heat, air pollution, wildfire smoke and drought, she said.

The bottom line: "What is important is not just that we can build AI-enabled technology, but it actually solves a problem or removes a bottleneck," Patel said.

There's a fresh wrinkle in the fight over permitting legislation: a federal court filing asking to reconsider the 2023 approval of the nearly-complete Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island.

Why it matters: The Friday filing to send the project back to the Interior Department, first reported by Bloomberg yesterday, could create new political hurdles to the bipartisan Senate bill.

🗞️ Driving the news: Democratic co-authors Sheldon Whitehouse and Martin Heinrich last night cast the filing as an argument for their bill.

• "Frankly, we need to get permitting certainty in law, and this proves it. In the meantime, the administration needs to start showing good faith progress on wind permits," they said in a statement.

🏈 State of play: Jarrod Agen, a top White House energy official, downplayed the filing last night.

• "This is an old lawsuit brought by the local community—who had serious concerns about this project—against the Biden Administration!," he posted on X.
• "The White House maintains support for PERMITTING REFORM! We look forward to the Senate voting on this historic legislation."

🏃 Catch up quick: The bill is aimed at preventing messing with permits for future projects after the fact.

• But backers are also seeking evidence from the Trump administration that it's easing its resistance to current plans.
• The focus has been land-based projects that need Pentagon sign-offs, but the offshore battles can't be untethered from the politics of the bill.

The bottom line: The senators and Agen appear to be working to prevent this from blowing up the deal.

U.S. electric vehicle sales rose 6.1% in the third quarter compared to the prior three months, per new Cox Automotive data.

Why it matters: There are glass half-full vibes here after a very rough stretch, when sales cratered after tax credits vanished under the 2025 GOP budget law.

The big picture: The EV market is "finding its footing again," said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox's director of industry insights, with recent growth suggesting the "reset phase is largely behind us."

• Product quality and competitive pricing will drive future growth, she said in commentary alongside the data.
• Gasoline above $4 per gallon is helping too, she said.

What we're watching: Precisely isolating the effect of expensive gas on EV sales is basically impossible, so keep an eye on the growth rate if and when gasoline gets much less expensive.

Disclosure: Cox Automotive and Axios are both owned by Cox Enterprises.

🤝 Mainspring Energy, an on-site power provider, has a deal to supply up to 1.6 gigawatts of facilities to utility powerhouse AEP through 2034.

• Why it matters: It's the biggest deal yet for Mainspring's "linear generators," the companies said, with first deliveries next year.
• State of play: Mainspring also announced a $242 million Series G round led by new investor Valiant Peregrine to expand production. Khosla Ventures, General Catalyst, Lightrock, AEP, Chevron, Amazon and other existing investors took part.
• What we're watching: The round could be Mainspring's last private financing ahead of an IPO, Axios Pro Deals reports (and you should really subscribe to Pro).

🤝 Industrial tech giant Siemens is investing an undisclosed sum in Skeleton Technologies, which makes storage systems that can manage demand spikes at data centers and help reduce peak needs.

• State of play: The companies also announced an agreement that provides Siemens "exclusivity to sell and scale Skeleton's products in the data center market."
• The big picture: Skeleton's "supercapacitors" act as a "shock absorber" that protects computing equipment, they said.

⚡ The Energy Department announced plans to provide $250 million in federal funding for transmission and distribution projects across states including Tennessee, Alabama and North Carolina.

• Why it matters: The money and project applicants' cost-sharing will help the Tennessee Valley Authority add around 2.5 gigawatts of new grid capacity, DOE said.

"[O]ver a decade after the Paris Agreement, banks remain at an early stage in enabling the transition to a low-carbon economy. Indeed, there are signs of stalling."

The data-rich report shows the many ways in which banks have backed off climate commitments in recent years.