Axios Future of Energy

April 30, 2026
👀 We've got exclusive news on a carbon removal deal this morning, and then we move onto...
- The U.S. politics of the oil shock
- Senate action on Trump nominees, robotaxi challenges, and much more, all in 1,468 words, 5.5 minutes
🙏 Thanks to Chuck McCutcheon and Chris Speckhard for editing and to our brilliant Axios visuals team.
🕊️ On this date in 1982, New Wave legends A Flock of Seagulls' debut album took flight, and it provides today's intro tune...
1 big thing: Data center firm inks carbon removal deal
NTT Data, a major data center operator, is buying carbon removal credits from startup Climeworks to help meet its climate goals, the companies exclusively shared with Axios today.
Why it matters: Surging energy demand from AI is increasing scrutiny of data centers' emissions — and could expand the pool of buyers for carbon removal as the sector faces setbacks.
Driving the news: Japan-based NTT Data Group has agreed to buy an unspecified amount of carbon removal credits from Climeworks — the first agreement between the Switzerland-based startup and a major AI infrastructure company.
- The companies aren't disclosing terms of the agreement, but Climeworks co-CEO Christoph Gebald said the deal could provide a few hundred thousand tons over a decade.
Reality check: That's meaningful for a nascent industry, but it's quite small relative to the emissions tied to the AI boom — to say nothing of the far greater reductions needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
The intrigue: The fact that the partnership exists at all could signal the beginning of a trend within the AI industry.
"We've seen increased interest in carbon removal because of the buildout of data centers," said Giana Amador, founding executive director of the Carbon Removal Alliance.
- "Carbon removal is quite attractive" because the technology doesn't have to be built alongside a data center project, Amador said in a recent interview. "They can purchase it as an offset."
State of play: NTT Data is one of the largest providers of digital infrastructure and services underpinning the AI economy.
- The deal will help the company meet its climate goals out to 2040, its executives said today.
How it works: Climeworks' cornerstone tech uses large fans and filters to capture CO2 from the ambient air.
- Beginning in 2024, the startup also began procuring other types of carbon removal credits, which are often cheaper but can raise questions about how durable they are compared to the engineered type.
- Today's agreement includes both the engineered and nature-based type, Climeworks said.
Yes, but: No major companies have stepped in (yet) to fill the void filled by Microsoft's decision to pause its new purchases of credits, according to two sources working within the sector who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
"The breakneck pace to AI development is all-consuming and high focus," said Julio Friedmann, chief scientist at Carbon Direct, which works with companies on their carbon management.
- "The unprecedented speed required, money at stake, and degree of difficulty leave little room inside these companies for consideration of" carbon removal.
What we're watching: As AI use grows, customers will ask "what emissions come with this compute," said Gebald, adding that it will push carbon removal from a "nice-to-have" to a "critical product feature."
2. 🛢️ Wartime highs and a bumpy ride


Oil prices reached their highest levels overnight since the war began, with Brent crude topping $126 per barrel before pulling back this morning, while U.S. gasoline prices also hit fresh wartime highs.
Why it matters: The jump will keep sending the price of gasoline higher — and shows the market reacting to the possibility of a long stalemate that keeps the Strait of Hormuz throttled.
- Traders are also likely weighing potential military escalation.
- President Trump is slated to receive a briefing later today on new plans for potential military action in Iran, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.
The latest: Brent crude has pulled back to $114 this morning.
What they're saying: "The oil market has moved from over-optimism to the reality of the supply disruption we are seeing in the Persian Gulf," ING analysts Warren Patter and Ewa Manthey said in a note.
- The breakdown of U.S.-Iran talks and President Trump rejecting Iran's latest offer on Hormuz "has the market losing hope for any quick resumption in oil flows," they write.
The intrigue: Beyond the wide-angle reality — a historic disruption with no end in sight — today's expiration of the June Brent futures contract is adding volatility.
What we're watching: The WSJ reported last night that U.S. officials are making fresh efforts to form an international coalition to enable navigation.
3. ⛽ The GOP's gas pump problem


People in GOP congressional districts tend to drive further — and that could worsen the party's midterm woes as fuel costs soar.
Why it matters: Pump prices are poised to play an outsized role in November, especially if the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz persists.
- Democrats and allied groups are seeking to make Iran war-driven price increases a major campaign theme. President Trump met with oil executives earlier this week to discuss the war's energy fallout.
Threat level: "Many Republican House members in Congress could be especially threatened; their average constituent drives 26% more miles than a Democratic member's average constituent," a new Brookings Institution analysis finds.
- And gas use is pretty resistant to big changes even when prices spike. Driving isn't especially optional for huge numbers of people, especially in more rural or sprawling areas.
- Several closely watched states, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, had gas prices yesterday above the national average.
Zoom in: A $1 climb in the average cost of gasoline leads to the country's median-earning, two-driver households spending $70 more per month to fill up, per Brookings.
- As of today, U.S. regular gasoline averaged $4.30 per gallon, per AAA, up from just under $3 pre-war.
4. 🚧 Electric robotaxis face infrastructure roadblock
Robotaxis are hitting a very analog bottleneck: real estate. The next phase of autonomy isn't about better AI — it's about land, electricity and logistics to keep fleets on the road.
Why it matters: The race for autonomy is becoming an infrastructure battle, one that will demand billions for urban land, grid upgrades and high-throughput service hubs.
The big picture: Like any fleet business, the key to operating a successful AV network is maximizing vehicle "uptime."
- Robotaxis plugged into an EV charger, or waiting to be serviced, aren't earning fares.
- Making money requires operating at scale — fanning out in large numbers across many cities with highly efficient pit stops for cleaning and charging.
How it works: Think of it like a WiFi mesh network, but for an entire city, says Ming Maa, co-founder and CEO of Moove AV, which manages and dispatches Waymo's robotaxis in Phoenix and soon Miami.
- In any "mid-tier market," a robotaxi company needs four to six facilities where vehicles can be charged and serviced, he told the audience at the recent Ride AI conference in San Francisco.
- And that infrastructure has to be planned efficiently to minimize "dead miles" between rides and to shorten customer wait times, he said.
5. 👀 Trump picks for public lands, power roles slated to advance in Senate
The Senate today will hold a procedural vote to pave the way for confirming Steve Pearce to head the Bureau of Land Management as part of a package aimed at putting dozens of President Trump's nominees in place.
Why it matters: Pearce, a former New Mexico House member, has drawn intense criticism from Democrats and environmental groups for his past advocacy of privatizing, selling and transferring public lands.
- At his February confirmation hearing, Pearce said he didn't support selling off federal land and emphasized his desire to obtain local feedback before making decisions about those lands.
What's next: The Senate will vote at 11:30 a.m. ET to limit debate on the package covering 49 nominees across multiple agencies.
- Among the others is Kyle Haustveit as Under Secretary of Energy. A former petroleum engineer, Haustveit would replace Wells Griffith, who left last year.
- FERC Commissioner David LaCerte, whom senators confirmed last year for a term lapsing in June, is being considered for a full term expiring in 2031. He contributed to Project 2025, the Trump transition blueprint organized by the conservative Heritage Foundation.
- NRC Commissioner Douglas Weaver also is being considered for a full term expiring in 2031.
6. 🛢️ Number of the day: 6.44 million barrels
That's daily U.S. crude oil exports last week, by far a record and the first time over 6 million, per U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
Why it matters: The war is expanding the market for U.S. oil and petroleum products.
- EIA's weekly reporting is noisy — more robust figures arrive after a lag — but the trend is clear.
What we're watching: Infrastructure constraints will limit the export ceiling without new port investment, but that ceiling's exact height is unclear.
7. 🌶️ Quote du jour: New acronym drop edition
That's Bloomberg oil analyst Javier Blas, riffing on his personal X feed about signs of a potentially prolonged stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz.
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