Axios Future of Defense

January 07, 2026
Missed me? Welcome to 2026. It began with a bang.
- I'll be reworking the Q&A prompts over the next few weeks. Got a burning question? Topics you want tackled? Send me your suggestions!
🚀 Situational awareness: The Pentagon and Lockheed Martin inked a seven-year agreement to grow annual PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement production from 600 to 2,000. (The demand is certainly there.)
On the way: Gambit exits stealth, Trump's Cabinet of main characters and footage from an Aeon-Moog weapon test.
Today's newsletter is 1,941 words, a 7.5-minute read.
1 big thing: Violence in Venezuela
The geopolitical face-off between President Trump and Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro concluded this weekend with black-bag precision and a Nike Tech tracksuit.
The big picture: The most complex raid since Abbottabad gave the world a glimpse at what the U.S. military is capable of when time is short, all the other resources are virtually limitless and the stakes are terrifyingly high.
- It was both almost too bombastic for a movie script and surprisingly sneaky for an era of ubiquitous sensors, cellphones among them.
- It also proved it is too soon to write off helicopters as outdated death traps.
- "Audacious, surgical and stunning," the operation "single-handedly rewrote U.S.-Venezuelan policy and significantly impacted China, Russia, North Korea and Iran's strategic calculus," Seth Krummrich, vice president of client risk management at Global Guardian, told me.
Driving the news: A significant sum of manpower and materiel was tapped to make off with Maduro. The roster included:
🗡️ Special operations muscle, such as Delta Force, one of America's most elite combat forces, and the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, which trains extensively for nighttime operations and employs specialized Chinook, Black Hawk and Little Bird helicopters.
🪽 More than 150 warplanes, like B-1 Lancers, F-22 Raptors, F-35 Lightning IIs, F/A-18 Super Hornets, EA-18 Growlers and E-2 Hawkeyes.
👀 A very special, little-seen drone known as RQ-170 Sentinel, at least one of which was spotted overhead. Photos shared by Air Forces Southern in December that featured an RQ-170 patch were quickly taken down.
🔎 A CIA team on the ground ahead of time, capable of building a pattern of life that ultimately "made grabbing him seamless," one source told Axios. (Washington "utilized a mosaic of all available intelligence methods," including human and signals intelligence, Krummrich said.)
🔞 Crew members as young as 20 and as old as 49, according to Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine.
⚓ The USS Iwo Jima, the Wasp-class amphibious assault ship that Maduro was flown to after capture. The vessel, effectively a floating military base, moved into the region over the summer.
🌧️ Information warfare expertise, including weather practitioners who monitored conditions as the operation sat in limbo for days.
👾 Cyber and Space commands, which helped carve a path for troops entering the capital. ("The lights of Caracas were largely turned off due to a certain expertise that we have — it was dark and it was deadly," Trump said.)
Zoom out: Maduro's toppling is the result of months of military buildup in and around the Caribbean. It also comes alongside lethal strikes against alleged drug runners Trump 2.0 is likening to al-Qaeda.
- So much firepower so close to home has thrust U.S. Southern Command under an unfamiliar microscope.
The bottom line: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's pledge that the Pentagon would not be "distracted by" democracy building, interventionism and regime change lasted only a few weeks.
Go deeper: U.S. leveled military facilities in Maduro attack, satellite imagery reveals
2. Exclusive: Gambit emerges
What do you get when you cram into the same room years of experience from inside the Pentagon, Defense Innovation Unit, Marine Corps, Air Force, SpaceX, Unity and Virgin Hyperloop? Gambit.
The big picture: The dual-use software company wants to make coordination across machines — aerial drones, ground robotics and more — smart and seamless, no matter the brand or builder.
- "As a kid growing up in the '90s, very influenced by the Trinity scene in 'The Matrix' where she's like, 'Tank, I need a helicopter program,' how do you create the helicopter program?" CEO Josh Giegel told me.
- "What's the company that's going to be able to do that?"
Driving the news: Gambit formally exited stealth today but has made some waves since its 2023 founding.
- It's struck partnerships with AWS, L3Harris Technologies, RTX and Sierra Nevada Corporation, all among America's largest defense contractors.
- It's landed Pentagon contracts — plus it's participated in U.S. military exercises, including with the Army and Special Operations Command. ("Some of the contracts we're on, we're actually the red team. We're the ones flying against the systems," Giegel said.)
- And it's secured H.R. McMaster as an adviser.
Context: Militaries consider unmanned and autonomous technologies game-changers, whether that's before, during or after a fight. But the systems' inability, in some cases, to play nice with others and deal with sudden frontline changes has been a problem.
- Gambit is pitching itself as the provider of the "highest level of autonomy," capable of learning, adapting and collaborating "as a single brain."
- "What I hear from customers is our stuff actually works," chief commercial officer Ben Richardson told me.
Follow the money: Gambit is backed by Eclipse and Marlinspike, among other investors.
- The next 12-24 months "are going to be a really great demonstration of the [Defense Department] really shifting its procurement and acquisition methodologies and aligning with the nature of what Gambit is building," Aidan Madigan-Curtis, a partner at Eclipse, told me.
Go deeper: U.S. troops get attack drones similar to Iran's deadly Shahed
3. Trump's puzzling warships
America's newly promised warship, the Trump-class neo-battleship, is an oddity.
The big picture: The future vessels — should they actually be paid for and constructed — subvert years of precedent, just like the commander in chief.
- Military thinkers have prioritized dispersion of firepower, people and supplies, especially in the Indo-Pacific. This is not that.
- Outfitting surface ships with nukes, in this case promised to be nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles, bucks decades of post-Cold War practice.
- Warships are named a certain way and after certain people. Here, naming conventions are also out the window.
What we're hearing: While supporters have been the loudest, critics appear to be more numerous.
- "Dumb," one defense industry executive told me when asked about the design. "I like the overall energy and vision in Golden Fleet, though."
- "I'm struggling to see the upside, other than lots of missile launchers and 'super lethal,'" another person familiar with the Navy's plans said. "But the downsides and complications are many."
Zoom in: The U.S. Navy's published specs for the Trump class, of which the USS Defiant will be the first, include:
- Multiple laser weapons and a railgun, both of which are power hungry and are of questionable maturity;
- Space for Conventional Prompt Strike hypersonic weapons;
- The Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program Block III electronic warfare suite;
- A flight deck and hangar compatible with the V-22 Osprey and future-vertical-lift aircraft;
- A crew of 650-850, far more than what's aboard other contemporary vessels.
Friction point: The U.S. struggles to build and maintain the ships it already has on the books and in the water.
- Navy Secretary John Phelan axed four Constellation-class frigates late last year.
What's next: Two Trump-class ships are expected initially. The program could total 20-25.
Go deeper: Trump approves "Golden Fleet" of new ships and drone boats, Navy's Phelan tells Axios
4. ICYMI: Cabinet of characters
Several members of President Trump's national security team have taken on unusually large public profiles — with frequent on-camera appearances, dramatic pronouncements and even eyebrow-raising wardrobe choices.
Why it matters: It's no secret that Trump prefers his appointees to appear straight out of "central casting." But in national security roles, showmanship can quickly become a liability.
- FBI director Kash Patel, for example, has seized the spotlight far more than his predecessors — often for all the wrong reasons.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth seems to be merging his old job as a media personality with his new one running America's military.
- And Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has cast herself as the star of a well-funded media campaign — often pictured in tactical gear despite her bureaucratic role.
What they're saying: Pentagon spokesperson Kingsley Wilson told Axios it's no accident that Hegseth has become "the most public-facing" secretary ever.
- "Since taking office, he has communicated directly with the American people rather than through the distorted lens of a media hell-bent on his destruction," she said. "Compared to the previous administration, our social media presence is direct, engaging and unmatched."
Behind the scenes: Patel's unusually large media presence and his rush to seize the spotlight have rankled some in the bureau's rank and file.
- A source familiar with the planning for one recent FBI operation said it included an unusual topic: what to do if the boss shows up, given Patel's penchant for capitalizing on newsworthy arrests.
- A recently retired agent told Axios that Patel's tendency to appear before the cameras in FBI windbreakers had prompted internal eye rolls: "You're the director of the FBI. Wear a f***ing suit."
Hegseth also appears on camera regularly — perhaps unsurprisingly given his background as a TV host. Both "Saturday Night Live" and "South Park" have lampooned him.
- From his sartorial selections — patriotic pocket squares, military-themed socks — to his zingers on physical conditioning ("fit not fat") and "woke" ideology, Hegseth leans into the performative aspects of his job.
- "I know something about filling cable news segments," he said at the Reagan National Defense Forum last month. "You've got to do it."
The Pentagon pumps out a steady supply of videos featuring Hegseth, while cutting back on press briefings. One video shared earlier this year showed the secretary, sleeves rolled up, turning the screw on new "DEPARTMENT OF WAR" signage.
- The climax — at least thus far — was Hegseth's culture war speech to America's top generals and admirals, flown from across the world to Quantico, Virginia, in September.
Meanwhile, Noem has literally made herself the face of Trump's immigration policy — starring in a $200 million ad campaign on social media and the airwaves.
- Noem also earned the tabloid nickname "ICE Barbie" for her frequent ride-alongs with ICE, Border Patrol and the Coast Guard, dressed up in the uniforms of those units.
5. Quick hits
🛑 The leaders of Denmark and Greenland, Mette Frederiksen and Jens-Frederik Nielsen, called on President Trump to cut the takeover talk. Other European prime ministers have piled on.
- Why it matters: An American seizure of Greenland would blow up NATO. Denmark is an ally, and Greenland is covered by the security guarantee, my colleague Rebecca Falconer reported.
- 💭 My thought bubble: Trump's Arctic ambitions are again bubbling up. I wrote about the Greenland gambit around this time last year. Read that, here.
🛩️ Saab secured an order from France for two GlobalEye early warning and control aircraft. The deal, including ground equipment, training and support, is valued at $1.3 billion.
- Why it matters: "This choice reinforces France's commitment to sovereignty and strengthens Europe's overall protection, with both Sweden and France operating GlobalEye," Saab CEO Micael Johansson said in a statement.
- 💭 My thought bubble: The GlobalEye sure is getting popular ...
💼 Tory Bruno joined Jeff Bezos-backed Blue Origin as the president of its national security group.
- Why it matters: He comes off a long stint at United Launch Alliance, a Boeing and Lockheed Martin joint.
- 💭 My thought bubble: We had Bruno on stage late last year. You can watch that discussion, here.
6. Check this out
Aeon Industrial and Moog notched a successful test at the end of 2025, shortly after news broke of their partnership.
Why it matters: Test footage is awesome.
- Especially in slow-mo.
Go deeper: Aeon, named to Black Flag list, working with Army lab on missiles
Shoutout to Dave Lawler for editing and Matt Piper for copy editing.
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