Situational awareness: United Technologies wants to merge with Raytheon. Microsoft is, as of the close of trade on Friday, the only company in the world worth more than $1 trillion. The 5% tariff on all Mexican imports is not going to happen. And Chrysler parent FCA is not going to merge with Renault after all. Thanks to everybody who replied last week to point out that Chevrolet is a GM brand, not a Chrysler brand. Keep those emails coming!

  • In this week's newsletter: Fed predictability, falling mortgage rates, celebrity monetization, Champagne as a Giffen good, VCs' preferred stock, Chewy goes public, and more, all in 2000 words.
  • "Axios on HBO" is back tonight at 6pm. I have a cameo this week: The cameras caught me talking to the great Alexi McCammond about what Americans think of socialism.

Finally: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon told employees this week that if the bank's Marcus subsidiary were a Silicon Valley startup, "people would be throwing money at us." Meanwhile, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon shut down his own digital bank, Finn, entirely.