2. First-time Latino voters
For the first time in U.S. history, Latinos will be the largest minority ethnic or racial group in the electorate, with 32 million eligible voters, Alexi McCammond writes.
Why it matters: A surge in Latino voters could help Democrats up and down the ballot. But since 1996, most eligible Latino voters have not voted in presidential elections, according to Pew.
- "The perpetual problem for Democrats in regards to Hispanic voters remains: converting potential votes into actual votes," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
By the numbers: There are an estimated 15 million to 18 million Latino people in the U.S. who are not registered to vote. Roughly 4 million turned 18 after the 2016 election.
- But Latino voter participation is growing — 27% who voted in the midterms said it was their first time.
- Almost half of eligible Latino voters were never even contacted by a political party or candidate, yet 79% voted in 2018, said María Teresa Kumar, founding president and CEO of Voto Latino.
- 69% cast a ballot for a Democrat.
What to watch: Texas — which Democrats are desperate to turn blue — accounts for 25% (2.5 million) of eligible but unregistered young Latino voters, per Kumar.