This Axios AM Deep Dive — led by immigration and demographics reporter Stef Kight — unpacks the changing demographics of American voters, focusing on the youngest, most racially diverse and well-educated generation.
In November, for the first time:
By the numbers: Gen Z will make up one-tenth of the 2020 electorate. Put them together with millennials, and these youngest generations will comprise 37% of eligible voters next year. They are...
Politically, Gen Zers appear to be "similar to millennials," with "their liberal attitudes and their openness to societal changes," Pew's social trends director Kim Parker told Axios.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Bettmann/Getty Contributor
For the first time in U.S. history, Latinos will be the largest minority ethnic or racial group in the electorate, with 32 million eligible voters, Alexi McCammond writes.
Why it matters: A surge in Latino voters could help Democrats up and down the ballot. But since 1996, most eligible Latino voters have not voted in presidential elections, according to Pew.
By the numbers: There are an estimated 15 million to 18 million Latino people in the U.S. who are not registered to vote. Roughly 4 million turned 18 after the 2016 election.
What to watch: Texas — which Democrats are desperate to turn blue — accounts for 25% (2.5 million) of eligible but unregistered young Latino voters, per Kumar.
Campaigns are using targeted digital platforms to reach younger voters, especially first-time voters, Sara Fischer writes.
Between the lines: While Facebook and Instagram are both used by people of all ages, its rival app Snapchat reaches a much younger demographic.
The bottom line: Digital advertising makes it easier for candidates to target younger voters at a fraction of the cost of TV ads.
Despite the hype around young Americans' civic activism and their record midterm election turnout in 2018, the voting power of young people is shrinking, Stef writes.
Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photo: H. Armstrong Roberts/Stringer
Members of Gen Z are more likely to be in an immigrant family than millennials were at the same age, Stef reports.
The big picture: Foreign-born people made up similarly high shares of the population in the late 1800s through the start of the 1900s. But the vast majority of those immigrants came from European nations.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Afro Newspaper/Gado/Getty Contributor
Young and first-time voters in battleground states will be a key target for 2020 candidates, Ursula Perano writes.
In 2018, voter turnout among people ages 18-29 grew from 20% to 36%.
But other states fell short in 2018. Pennsylvania organizers hoped for a historic youth turnout, but only saw incremental gains.
Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photo: William C. Shrout/Getty Contributor
Why it matters: Many recent graduates will be eligible to vote for the first time in 2020 and an education in civics is linked to higher civic participation — including voting.
📬 Thanks for reading! Please tell a friend about AM/PM.