Texas manufacturing activity fell this month as business executives report increasing uncertainty about President Trump's looming tariff policy and concerns about changes to immigration policy, per a new Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas report.

Why it matters: Texas stands to lose $47.1 billion — the most of any state — if tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico take effect, along with those already imposed on China.

• Automakers are already delaying new vehicle launches due to uncertainty about manufacturing costs if tariffs are enacted.

Driving the news: Production and new orders dropped among Texas manufacturers this month compared to January, with many businesses reporting they were shortening workweeks and potentially cutting workers, per a Dallas Fed survey released yesterday.

• Still, manufacturers reported they expect production to increase in the next six months or by early 2026.

Zoom in: General Motors executives said last week the company would consider moving plants if U.S. tariffs become permanent.

• The automaker employs about 5,200 people at its Arlington factory.

What they did: The Dallas Fed surveys manufacturers statewide every month about orders, employment and prices. The latest survey includes responses from 89 of the 118 manufacturing firms surveyed Feb. 11-19.

• The survey also asked questions about tariffs and immigration, to which 327 business executives in manufacturing, retail and service industries responded.

By the numbers: About 32% of Texas firms reported they've relied on hiring workers from out of state in the past year, and a quarter reported relying on hiring workers who moved from another country.

• 18% of Texas executives surveyed reported immigration policy changes would affect their ability to hire or retain employees.

The bottom line: Manufacturers aren't the only ones worried. Consumer sentiment also declined in February compared to January, according to new survey data.

Responses on tariffs

Dallas-Fort Worth is among the hottest destinations for college-educated Americans leaving their home county, per the latest Census Bureau data.

Why it matters: A lot of people are moving to North Texas, and the region is now a top draw for white collar workers like New York City and Washington, D.C.

By the numbers: Among Americans age 25 and up with a bachelor's degree or better who moved to a new county in 2023, 6.1% went to NYC, 3.5% to D.C. and 3.2% to Dallas.

• They're followed up by Atlanta (2.9%), Los Angeles (2.4%) and Chicago (2.4%).
• Other hotspots: Denver (2.4%), Boston (2.2%) and San Francisco (2.1%).

The intrigue: Dallas still attracts plenty of people without bachelor's degrees.

• About 47% of the people who moved from out of state to D-FW had a lower education level. Meanwhile, NYC (31%) and D.C. (29%) drew a smaller share of out-of-state movers without a bachelor's degree.

How it works: These numbers are based on the 2023 one-year American Community Survey and count people who moved in the year prior.

The Allen City Council will consider moving forward with a plan to attract a $1 billion indoor waterpark and resort to the city.

Why it matters: The proposal is projected to bring $5 billion in economic impact to the city in the first 10 years after opening.

• City officials expect to collect $390 million in taxes from the resort over 40 years.

State of play: Kalahari Resorts & Conventions opened its first African-themed resort in Texas in 2020 in Round Rock.

• The company is now considering opening a similar development in Allen near McKinney at State Highway 121 and Stacy Road.

The latest: The City Council will vote tonight on whether to authorize the city manager to negotiate a lease with Kalahari. The city's economic development corporation is under contract to buy the 123 acres for the project.

• The development would include a 1.2 million-square-foot resort and convention center, with 900 guest rooms and an indoor and outdoor waterpark.

By the numbers: The resort is estimated to cost at least $950 million, about $375 million more than the Round Rock location due to inflation and construction cost increases.

• The city is offering economic incentives that include capping permitting fees at $1.2 million and potentially $50 million in bond money.
• The resort must maintain 500 full-time jobs.

What's next: If a lease agreement moves forward, Kalahari is required to start construction no later than 2030 but the goal is to complete the project sooner.

🕯️ Former Secret Service agent Clint Hill has died at 93. Hill was known for running into gunfire to shield President John F. Kennedy and the first lady on Nov. 22, 1963, in Dallas. (CNN)

📱 Fort Worth ISD is planning to join more than 200 other school districts nationwide suing the companies that own YouTube, Instagram, TikTok and Snapchat, claiming the platforms are contributing to a youth mental health crisis. (Star-Telegram)

⚖️ A defamation trial began yesterday in the suit filed by Dallas-based Energy Transfer against Greenpeace USA related to the 2016 protests over the Dakota Access Pipeline. (DMN)

Today's taco adventure takes us north to Little Elm, where the dining options have boomed along with the population.

The intrigue: The Little Elm population has more than doubled since 2010 to 58,000, per 2023 Census Bureau figures.

Vibe check: 3 Flights Up serves tacos and beer in a laid-back setting with a shelf full of board games for entertainment.

What to order: Hangover taco — chicken, fries, salsa and fried egg.

• We also liked the Nashville hot chicken and shrimp po' boy tacos.

Where: 3 Flights Up, 2832 Eldorado Parkway.

Cost: $6-$7 for most tacos.

Six-word review: Breakfast cravings satiated at any time.

🤔 Know a great taco we should try? Hit reply and let us know.