Tariff threats freeze automakers at critical moment
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President Trump hasn't implemented most of the tariffs he's announced, but the uncertainty over when — or even if — he'll do so is already hurting the auto industry.
Why it matters: It's a tumultuous time for automakers, which are already grappling with regulatory uncertainties and worries about consumer acceptance of electric vehicles.
- At the very moment they need to be placing huge, multibillion-dollar bets on the future, they're instead caught in a "will he or won't he" limbo over Trump's tariffs.
- As they await more clarity, they're pausing or delaying huge investment decisions, increasing the risk they'll fall behind faster-moving Chinese rivals.
The big picture: The auto industry, more than any other, is caught in the crosshairs of Trump's burgeoning trade war.
- Prolonged tariffs on trade with Canada and Mexico, plus additional levies on steel and aluminum imports, would deliver a multibillion-dollar hit to U.S. automakers, according to credit analysts at S&P Global Ratings.
- There's also an invisible cost: the risk of delayed development of future vehicle programs, "particularly in light of evolving emission and fuel economy regulations," the analysts wrote.
What they're saying: General Motors CFO Paul Jacobson said this week at a Barclays conference that if U.S. tariffs became permanent, the automaker would have to consider moving plants. But for now, it's holding off on such decisions until the macroeconomic picture is clearer.
- "Those are questions that just don't have an answer today, because (what) I can tell you is, as much as the market is pricing in a big impact of tariffs and lost profitability, we think about a world where on top of that, we're spending billions of dollars in capital. So we can't be whipsawing the business back and forth," Jacobson said.
Between the lines: Ford is delaying the launch of its next-generation F-150 pickup from 2027 until mid-2028, Crain's Detroit Business, an affiliate of Automotive News, scooped this week.
- Ford declined to comment on "speculation" about future products, but delaying a makeover of the F-150, its biggest money-maker, would be extraordinary.
- Ford has been tearing up its product plans, adding more hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles to its pipeline, while axing plans for a much-anticipated three-row electric SUV and delaying the launch of its next generation electric F-150 Lightning truck.
- A "skunkworks" team in California is developing more affordable EVs from the ground up, starting with a midsize electric pickup in 2027.
Reality check: Multiple factors are at play in Ford's product pivot, but CEO Jim Farley's frustration about recent policy swings — on top of everything else — boiled over last week at a Wolfe Research conference when he said Trump's tariffs threaten to "blow a hole" in the auto industry.
- "So far what we're seeing is a lot of costs and a lot of chaos."
Zoom in: As Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox Automotive, notes: "The delays and uncertainty are doing no one any favors, and there is little automakers can do in the near term, as changing sourcing and/or production sites is not an easy task and costly as well."
What to watch: The daily chaos from Washington seems to be negatively impacting consumer sentiment, per Cox Automotive's chief economist Jonathan Smoke.
- With tariffs likely to push up car prices, and lower auto loan rates looking less likely, he expects shoppers to buy sooner rather than later.
Disclosure: Cox Automotive and Axios are both owned by Cox Enterprises.
