Last week, at the final major crypto industry gathering before the U.S. election, the forecast for digital asset policy going into the coming year was generally good — regardless of who occupies the White House on Jan. 20.

Why it matters: Today's state-of-play probably wasn't on many bingo cards a couple years back, when Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX blew up and the consensus in the mainstream was that the industry was donezo and the U.S. government would finish it off.

• (Flashback: That was the scene shortly after we started this newsletter. For the record, in the month just after the Samglomerate fell I told you that blockchains would be back.)

What they're saying: "Crypto is central to the conversation," Paul Grewal, the lead attorney for Coinbase, the U.S.'s leading crypto company, told Axios at Permissionless III in Salt Lake City last week, despite all the gloom of 2022.

• "Not only have we recovered from where we were, but we've surpassed," Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association, told me.

The big picture: Again and again, people at Permissionless described this election as an inflection point.

• "This is the cycle that I believe is the most important that will ever exist in the history of crypto," Mike Dudas, managing partner of 6th Man Ventures, told Axios.

Inside the room: When you think of a crypto conference, typically one imagines a packed space, with hucksters in costumes and Lamborghinis parked outside.

• Permissionless III was a calm event, though, with plenty of elbow room and zero zaniness. The mood wasn't bleak, but it wasn't ebullient either.

Harris vs. Trump: The big question — and the one not everyone agrees on — is whether or not there's a big difference between former president Donald Trump and current vice president Kamala Harris.

• Smith said her team has had contact with the Harris campaign and the signs are positive, but "we are saying, let's put some more meat on the bone."
• On that note, yesterday, Harris released a document on her economic agenda for Black men, which acknowledged that digital assets have been a boon for many in that group.

What we're watching: "The single biggest thing she could do is let people know that [SEC Chair] Gary Gensler is not sticking around," Smith said.

The other side: "I'm not as concerned about a Harris administration and I'm not as enthused about a Trump," Meltem Demirors, general partner at new fund Crucible Capital, and alum of CoinShares and Digital Currency Group, told me.

• "The wall did not get built," she said.

Yes, but: "All of the crypto industry is in pretty constant contact with the Republican side," Fried Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings, a top publicly traded Bitcoin mining company, told me.

• "On the Democratic side, it's been very hard to get ears," he said.
• Thiel just wants his part of the industry to get treated like any other — with neutrality, which is not what it got from the Biden administration.

The bottom line: "The battle's already happened and crypto's already won," Tom Schmidt, partner at the crypto VC firm Dragonfly, told me.

"The hopium of a Trump win making number go up is driving people to think irrationally."

A deep-pocketed PAC backed by the cryptocurrency industry has emerged as one of the biggest spenders on Minnesota's airwaves ahead of the November election, but you wouldn't guess it by watching the ads, Axios' Torey Van Oot reports for Axios Twin Cities.

State of play: FairShake has spent more than $1.1 million since mid-August on TV spots boosting U.S. Rep. Angie Craig's re-election bid in a competitive south metro congressional seat, according to the analytics platform AdImpact.

• The committee is the sixth largest spender on TV, radio and digital ads statewide over that period — and the second-biggest in the 2nd District, behind Craig's own campaign.

The big picture: Blockchain companies and backers have raised at least $160 million for the 2024 election in an attempt to bolster the ranks of crypto-friendly lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

• The newly created PACs are spending on candidates from both parties across the nation.

The intrigue: The pro-Craig TV ads airing in the Twin Cities media market don't mention crypto or other related issues.

• Instead, they highlight the incumbent Democrat's biography and advocacy on issues like drug prices and the cost of insulin.
• The 30-second spot hails Craig, a member of the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party who faces Republican Joe Teirab, as a "bipartisan champion."

Zoom out: A similar strategy is playing out in competitive races across the nation, as FairShake and its counterparts run ads on issues like jobs and immigration instead of the digital currency policies they support, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Zoom in: While Craig hasn't made crypto policy a major part of her campaign, her vote record has earned her positive ratings from industry groups.

• She serves on a subcommittee focused on communications and technology.

Flashback: In 2022, Craig pledged to return a donation from Sam Bankman-Fried, the FTX founder serving a 25-year sentence for his role in bankrupting the platform and defrauding its users.

• She said at the time that she would send the money to a fund created for his victims.

What they're saying: Representatives for FairShake didn't respond to Axios' requests for comment.

• A spokesperson for Craig's campaign declined to comment.

🍊 The new blockchain ETFs are bringing first-time buyers to BlackRock. (Blockworks)

🤑 Trump-backed World Liberty Financial is looking for $300 million. (The Block)

🇳🇬 Nigeria has denied bail to jailed Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan. (Blockworks)

👨‍⚖️ Crypto-leaning startup Banq got its plea for bankruptcy dismissed by a judge, who called the Chapter 11 application a "bad faith" tactic to avoid litigation. (CoinDesk)

The whole time I was speaking to Nicholas Passino of the Maga Boyz inside the Salt Palace Convention Center, I was unsettled seeing doubles of my own reflection in his red, white and blue sunglasses.

The big picture: The grassroots of the blockchain world is locked in on a victory for former president Donald Trump.

What they're saying: "Even though we are pro-Trump right now, we're about the MAGA movement as a whole," Passino told Axios.

What's next: The group has a PAC that will open donations soon, which is all part of a token-powered plan to pump the internet with MAGA memes.

• "We're going to have crypto degens create memes that expose the lies and corruption of the politicians," Passino promised.