The crypto community celebrated news of President-elect Trump's pick for SEC chair by driving the price of bitcoin the last few yards to break $100k.

Why it matters: Paul Atkins' nomination to lead the agency all but promises a total reversal of the debilitating hostility that's grown between the industry and the country's top financial regulator.

The big picture: Atkins' nomination can be viewed as half of Trump's promise to the crypto industry for a friendlier SEC.

• Current chair Gary Gensler, who Trump threatened to "fire" in July, has already said he'll step down on Inauguration Day. Gensler's tenure leading the SEC since 2021 has been combative, marked by controversial rulemaking and an aggressive enforcement approach with the crypto industry.
• Atkins, by contrast — based on his record and recent comments — could easily be described as the anti-Gensler.

Zoom in: The veteran financial regulator is already a favorite of the crypto community.

• He has criticized the current SEC for its approach, saying it has not been straightforward in its dealings with the industry, and that the agency should be more accommodating to promote more development within the U.S.
• Since 2017 he has co-chaired the Digital Chamber's Token Alliance, a cryptocurrency advocacy organization, where he's argued for clearer regulation that doesn't stifle innovation.

He's not an outsider. Atkins served as an SEC commissioner from 2002 to 2008 under President George W. Bush. (There are five commissioners, including the chair, who heads the agency.)

• During his tenure and since, he's built a reputation as a pro-business conservative and has advocated for lighter regulation.
• A year after leaving the SEC 16 years ago, he founded a consultancy, Patomak Global Partners, described by Bloomberg as "one of the most prominent sounding boards for banks, trading firms, fintechs ... seeking guidance on how to influence and respond to Washington's edicts and investigations."

What they're saying: "Paul is a proven leader for common sense regulations," Trump said in a Truth Social post. "He believes in the promise of robust, innovative capital markets that are responsive to the needs of Investors, & that provide capital to make our Economy the best in the World."

• Paul Grewal, chief legal officer for Coinbase, said on X, "Congratulations to Mr. Atkins. We appreciate his commitment to balance in regulating US securities markets and look forward to his fresh leadership at @SECGov. It's sorely needed and cannot come a day too soon."

The other side: U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a vocal critic of the threats posed by cryptocurrencies, said, "I'm concerned about putting at the helm of the SEC a Wall Street lobbyist whose main contribution during the last financial crisis was to protest fines against the giant corporations that defrauded investors."

What's next: Atkins' nomination will need Senate confirmation.

Bitcoin broke through last night, capping a bull run that has seen the original cryptocurrency rise more than 30% since Election Day.

Two things yesterday may have given it the push it needed to (finally) break the psychological price wall:

• Trump nominated Paul Atkins to lead the SEC. (We already covered that 👆.)
• Shortly after, Fed chair Jerome Powell spoke at the DealBook summit and said he viewed bitcoin as a competitor for gold.

Context: Powell's comment was in response to a question of whether he viewed bitcoin as a challenge to the U.S. dollar, a suggestion he dismissed.

• "People use bitcoin as a speculative asset," he told Andrew Ross Sorkin. "It's just like gold, only it's virtual, it's digital. People are not using it as a form of payment or as a store of value. It's highly volatile. It's not a competitor for the dollar, it's really a competitor for gold."

$100,000 is a big round number, and a symbolic one — marking what could be the industry's next stage of long-term growth.

The big picture: The landscape for digital assets, and bitcoin in particular, has never looked brighter.

• ETFs launched in January now hold north of $100 billion in assets — making it easier than ever to buy bitcoin or ether.
• Wall Street, at one time an enemy crypto dreamed of slaying, has become a crucial ally, adding exponentially to the asset's staying power.
• Clear regulations in the U.S., once a pipe dream, are now essentially a certainty. And crypto will soon have a cheerleader in the White House itself.

Catch up quick: Excitement around what Trump will do for crypto has poured gasoline on the fire of a bitcoin bull run that was already in motion. But bitcoin hitting $100,000 is not just a Trump effect.

• It's a milestone hit during the fourth of bitcoin's remarkably predictable "cycles," which we'll explain more in a moment.
• And if six-figure bitcoin in 2024 wasn't itself predictable — it's certainly a number traders had their sights on long before Trump declared his love of crypto in May.

About that cycle. Bitcoin is again following the familiar roughly every-four-year cycle it has shown since 2013.

• Every four years, by design, the amount of new bitcoin created each day drops in half, as it did on April 19.
• This decreases the liquid supply. Once that's felt in the market, it causes an uptick in the price. (Warning: most attempts to time it by get-rich-quick schemers fail.)

Reality check: The Trump effect, and the promise of a friendlier Congress, has surely accelerated bitcoin's climb to today's new high.

Risks abound for new investors. To name a few:

• If the next Congress can't get its act together on blockchain legislation;
• If the SEC doesn't actually soften its stance on cryptocurrency in the new administration;
• Or if the president-elect changes his mind and starts selling the nation's bitcoin holdings.

Any of those situations would likely slow, or halt, bitcoin's momentum.

The bottom line: Bitcoin's market cap now makes it the seventh-largest asset in the world, higher than market values of Tesla, Meta (Facebook) and even silver, the precious metal.

Go deeper

🪓 A former Meta exec in charge of its Libra crypto project said its shutdown was 100% political. (Business Insider)

🪙 It's not just Trump, lawmakers in Brazil, Poland and Russia have also suggested a bitcoin reserve. (Decrypt)