Axios Closer

July 10, 2023
Monday ✅.
Today's newsletter is 614 words, a 2½-minute read.
🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 0.2%.
- Biggest gainer? Wynn Resorts (+5.7%), riding a strong session for casino stocks.
- Biggest decliner? FMC Corp. (-11.1%), the ag sciences company, cut its Q2 and 2023 guidance.
1 big thing: Welcome to the jungle
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
Amazon's annual, global Prime Day, which officially starts tomorrow, has become a tide that lifts all boats in retail, Hope writes.
Why it matters: Stores this year are trying to thin inventory while competing for wallet share against revenge travel and entertainment spending.
- Consumers need a reason to spend money on products right now versus things like "Taylor Swift tickets" or travel, Tom Forte, senior research analyst at D.A. Davidson, tells Axios.
- "If you're a retailer, and you're not focused on live events or travel, then you're looking for something to stimulate sales."
- And Prime Day could do just that.
State of play: Prime is now an "industrywide shopping holiday" as Best Buy, Walmart, Target and other retailers "counter-program" against it with their own sales, Andrew Lipsman, principal retail and e-commerce analyst at Insider Intelligence, tells Axios.
- "That drives coordination between shoppers and retailers ... very similar to Black Friday or Cyber Monday."
By the numbers: Total U.S. e-commerce sales are expected to grow by about 116% on Prime Day this year versus an average day, according to Lipsman.
- Non-Amazon retailers specifically could see a 40% increase in sales.
- Amazon's own sales are expected to grow by 243% on Prime Day over an average day.
💡 Be smart: For Amazon, Prime Day isn't just about selling as many products as possible — it's also, and maybe even more importantly, about attracting new Prime members.
- The size of Amazon's Prime membership base plays a huge role in determining the success and growth of the company's e-commerce business, as Prime members typically spend more and use more Amazon products and services.
What to watch: Whether Amazon will hold a second Prime Day event like last year.
- An Amazon spokesperson said the company does not "speculate on future plans."
🌎 Go deeper: Amazon eyes international expansion to grow Prime subscribers
2. Bonus chart: Prime Day bump

4. Threads app exceeds 100 million users

The two most powerful leaders in social media can't stop throwing jabs at each other online, Hope writes.
- Twitter owner Elon Musk has lashed out at Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg several times since Threads, Meta's Twitter-like app, launched last week.
- Zuckerberg's own taunting of Musk hasn't stopped since the two apparently agreed to throw actual jabs in a cage match fight.
Why it matters: The personal attacks have escalated as Threads reached over 100 million users over the weekend, while internet traffic data from Cloudflare shows Twitter use "tanking."
💭 Hope's thought bubble: Whether Threads will be able to replace Twitter remains a big open question. (Its leaders, for one, don‘t feel it has to get into politics and news in order to succeed.)
- The app is still too new and lacks many of the features that make Twitter useful, such as chronological timelines. And because Threads launched during a slow news week, its purpose during huge breaking news, when Twitter shines, hasn't been tested.
5. It's Tom's week
Tom Cruise greets fans on June 28 in Seoul, South Korea, where he was promoting “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One." Photo: Han Myung-Gu/WireImage
Tom Cruise might just save Hollywood again, like he did last year, Hope writes.
- The seventh "Mission: Impossible" opens in U.S. theaters as early as tonight in some cities, and it's been tracking to ring up $90 million domestically in its first five days.
The big picture: Cruise will have help from "Barbie" and Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" to revive theater attendance. The films are expected to bring in over $120 million together during their overlapping opening weekend next week.
6. What they're saying
"I couldn’t believe how light the crowds were."— Jaime Brown, a Disney World visitor, referring to one of the slowest Independence Day weekends in nearly a decade.
Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Sheryl Miller.
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