Axios Closer

October 20, 2026
Tuesday ✅.
Today's newsletter is 915 words, a 3½-minute read.
🚨 Situational awareness: Space X and Tesla formed committees to explore a merger, CEO Elon Musk says.
📈 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%.
🔥 Today's stock spotlight: Braze (+51.7%), the customer-engagement platform, soared on the company's announced sale to Salesforce, with the software giant offering a 58% premium to Braze's stock at yesterday's close.
1 big thing: SpaceX blasts past expectations
Explosions are seldom good when it comes to a rocket company — unless, of course, you're referring to revenue or profit.
- 🚀 SpaceX rocketed past expectations for both today in its second earnings report as a publicly traded company — with its space, connectivity and AI businesses all delivering strong performances.
- And in an explosive disclosure on its earnings call, Elon Musk said both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss a potential merger — with Musk saying, "It's a good idea."
📈 Zoom in: The company reported revenue of $14.58 billion in the third quarter, about $9 billion more than the same period last year.
- That crushed S&P Capital IQ expectations of $13 billion.
- The company also swung from a $1.05 billion net loss a year earlier to a $4.4 billion profit in Q3, more than doubling consensus expectations of $2.12 billion.
In all three of its divisions, SpaceX topped expectations, posting:
- 🤖 AI revenue of $7.56 billion, nearly tripling its year-ago performance and beating S&P Capital IQ consensus expectations of $6.47 billion.
- 🛰️ Connectivity revenue of $5.25 billion, topping expectations of $4.9 billion.
- 🚀 Space revenue of $1.77 billion, outpacing expectations of $1.46 billion.
💵 The company's capital expenditures totaled $19.59 billion in Q3, up from $6.88 billion a year earlier.
- Capex is expected to soar from $69.9 billion in 2026 to $194.3 billion in 2028, according to Melissa Otto, global head of Visible Alpha Research at S&P Global.
What we're watching: Musk said on this afternoon's call that he isn't on the special committees exploring a SpaceX-Tesla deal, as he's a "conflicted party."
- He said that "there's a lot to be gained" from cooperation on technologies like AI, chips, robotics and connectivity, but that a deal is not certain.
- "I think that would be overstating it," he said, noting that 50% of Tesla shareholders would need to approve a deal, which he called a high hurdle.
2. Netflix growth is buffering
Netflix shares were slipping in extended trading after the streaming giant issued a disappointing growth forecast for the fourth quarter, Axios' Pete Gannon writes.
📊 By the numbers: The company is expecting $13.4 billion in sales in the final period, which would represent 11.5% growth from a year ago.
- That's a marked slowdown from the 17.6% growth it posted in last year's Q4 over 2024.
- The 11.8% growth posted for Q3, meanwhile, was the company's lowest quarterly revenue percentage growth in three years, WSJ noted.
📉 State of play: The streamer's revenue has been throttling down for three consecutive quarters. A slowdown in Q4 would make it four straight.
🐌 Between the lines: It blamed part of the slowdown on its ads business, saying it expects full-year revenue there to come in $300 million below earlier projections due to delays in the rollout of certain product capabilities.
The big picture: Netflix shares have fallen around 43% in the past year and 9% in the past two years, as investors lose confidence in the company's ability to translate its subscription dominance into a long-term growth story, Sara Fischer wrote this morning in Axios Media Trends.
- Shares were down around 5% after the bell today.
3. Other happenings
🤖 Anthropic spent nearly $9 billion on computing capacity and infrastructure in the six months ended June 30, and it spent more on computing capacity in that period than it did in all of 2025, per a draft IPO prospectus. (WSJ)
🏛️ Meta's chief global affairs officer, Joel Kaplan, will leave the company next year after 15+ years as Mark Zuckerberg's top Washington advisor. (Axios)
4. A test for the rollup playbook
Antitrust officials are taking their fight to the playground... literally.
- The FTC and a dozen state attorneys general have sued to block a merger of two playground equipment makers — a case that could have broader implications for acquisition rollup strategies, Axios' Dan Primack writes.
🛝 State of play: The FTC and states argue that private equity-owned PlayPower's acquisition of rival BCI Burke would raise prices for playground equipment buyers — including schools, municipalities and churches — and decrease innovation. Simple enough.
- But the case — if it goes to court — could also test Biden-era merger guidelines that take particular aim at serial acquirers.
🔎 Zoom in: The guidelines allow regulators to "consider the cumulative effect" of a deal that's part of a broader acquisition strategy.
- PlayPower has made several big acquisitions over the past few decades.
The guidelines also address mergers in already-concentrated markets:
- The top five playground equipment players — including PlayPower and BCI Burke — have combined market share of between 85% and 90%, the FTC argues.
⚖️ What we're watching: PlayPower believes the deal would create "even more competition in a highly fragmented and globally competitive market, not diminish it," a spokesperson says.
🗓️ On this day in 1928, bush pilot Noel Wien incorporated Wien Alaska Airways, widely credited as Alaska's first airline. While it originally served gold miners and hauled mail to hard-to-reach communities, its successor grew from a few bush planes into a jet airline serving Alaska and the western U.S., before being liquidated in 1984.
Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Sheryl Miller.
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