AI could drive a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up as soon as this fall, analysts say
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Tesla is expected to unveil its Roadster Thursday night, potentially featuring SpaceX-designed thrusters that could literally lift the car off the ground.
- A much bigger Tesla-SpaceX tie-up — the long-speculated merger of Elon Musk's two companies — could come as soon as this fall, say analysts at the Barclays investment bank.
The big picture: Musk's business empire is becoming increasingly interconnected, raising the prospect of a combination that would consolidate his control over two of the world's most valuable companies, while allowing both to move faster on big AI projects.
Zoom in: The Barclays analysts, led by Dan Levy, view AI as a central driver of a potential deal.
- A merger would vertically integrate both companies' AI platforms, including Tesla's physical robotaxis and humanoid robots, with SpaceX's AI models and software, they wrote in the report Wednesday.
- And a combined company would simplify governance of Terafab, Musk's planned massive chip manufacturing project that he sees as central to powering both companies' enormous computing needs for years to come.
The intrigue: The analysts see two possible timing considerations for a potential deal.
- In one scenario, an announcement could come in time to include merger approval as part of Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, which could land no later than Dec. 6. To meet that goal, a merger announcement would have to come by late October or early November at the latest.
- If a deal were to be announced later, the analysts expect it to come within six to 12 months — aiming to close the transaction during the Trump administration, with its relatively friendlier regulators.
Between the lines: Musk has long talked about having enough voting control to give him sufficient influence over Tesla's AI and robotics strategy. He has that control at SpaceX.
- The Barclays analysts say a deal would give Musk around 37% of a combined Tesla/SpaceX and 56% of the voting power, depending on the deal structure and valuations.
What we're watching: Despite the potential benefits, shareholders would still need to approve the deal, which carries plenty of downside risks too.
