The maybe-things-won't-be-so-bad-after-all narrative is playing out in earnings season, with a slew of major American companies remaining resilient despite fears of a downturn, Nathan writes.

Why it matters: The recession watch has become positively obsessive as observers look for clues that the economy is growing increasingly wobbly.

The latest: Several major earnings reports on Tuesday suggest a recession may not be imminent at all:

• General Motors reported fourth-quarter revenue up 28.4% and net income up 14.8%, outpacing expectations.
• UPS stock jumped 5% in early-afternoon trading after the company said it met its earnings targets despite consumers shifting from goods spending to services.
• McDonald's U.S. comparable sales rose 10.3% in the fourth quarter, powered by increased foot traffic and promotions like the adult Happy Meal.

Other issues that once served as obstacles for the economy are also clearing up, such as the supply chain crisis.

• Caterpillar CEO Jim Umpleby said Tuesday that the company now enjoys "the highest level of parts availability in our history."

The big picture: The resilient U.S. economy was part of the reason why the International Monetary Fund raised its global growth outlook on Monday, saying it expects growth of 2.9% in 2023, up from a previous expectation of 2.7%.

• And inflation is "peaking," with 84% of countries forecast to face lower headline inflation in 2023 compared to 2022, according to the IMF World Economic update.

Yes, but: It's not all rock-solid. The housing market has slowed down and consumers are exhausting their savings to maintain their level of spending.

• “The last bastion of strength is the labor market, but I don’t think it can withstand all these other forces,” Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic told the Wall Street Journal.

The bottom line: The recession watch will continue, but it doesn't look like one is imminent.

Exxon Mobil posted its highest-ever annual profit in 2022, powered by last year's spike in gasoline and oil prices, Nathan writes.

• Exxon ripped off a profit of $55.7 billion for the year, up 142% from 2021.

Yes, but: Gas prices topping $5 last year already seems like a distant memory, as Tuesday's national average was $3.51, according to AAA.

• "Oil and gas companies have had two years of skyrocketing growth, but this earnings season could mark the beginning of their descent back down to earth," CNN reports.

🤳 Snap shares plunged after hours, the company's Q4 revenue having come in below analysts’ estimates. (CNBC)

🛒 Whole Foods is asking its suppliers to help it lower prices in its stores. (Axios)

The U.S. Department of Justice has asked Tesla for information about its self-driving car system, Nathan writes.

Why it matters: Tesla's Autopilot technology — which enables cars to steer, brake and accelerate on their own — has drawn a legion of fans.

• But it's also drawn scrutiny from regulators over what it can and can't do.

Driving the news: "To our knowledge no government agency in any ongoing investigation has concluded that any wrongdoing occurred," Tesla said in a public filing, while acknowledging the DOJ information request.

Zoom out: Autopilot in general has been under fire for years from auto safety watchdogs who say the system inspires too much faith in users who don't understand its shortcomings.

Go deeper.

Twelve days from the Super Bowl — the most-watched telecast in the U.S. — the National Football League readies for an event that literally nobody cares about. At all.

• Brace yourself, America, for the 2023 NFL Pro Bowl.

Details: There will be no watch parties. No points pools and queso dips, Axios' Pete Gannon writes.

• The league's annual all-star game averaged just 6.69 million viewers last year, around 200 million less than the Super Bowl.

💭 Our thought bubble: Football just isn't built for all-star games. But credit to the NFL this year for shaking things up.

• This Thursday night will feature a players' skills challenge. And on Sunday, for the first time ever, they'll play 7-on-7 flag football games.

Hey, we might even just watch.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to note that the Super Bowl is the most-watch telecast in the U.S., not the world.

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