Axios Closer

March 22, 2024
🏀 Happy weekend! We hope your brackets aren't already busted.
Today's newsletter is 695 words, a 2½-minute read.
🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.1%.
- Biggest gainer? FedEx (+7.4%) beat expectations in its last quarter and grew its operating margin in Express, its largest unit.
- Biggest decliner? Lululemon (-15.8%), the athleisure company, provided disappointing guidance on softening U.S. sales.
1 big thing: Consumer tea leaves
Consumers might be wobbling if apparel, grocery and restaurant sales are any indication, Nathan writes.
Between the lines: A slew of companies this week reported signs of consumers weakening:
- Lululemon CEO Calvin McDonald said consumer activity is "a little soft coming into the year."
- Darden Restaurants — whose brands include Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse and Ruth's Chris Steak House — said its same-store sales fell for the first time since the pandemic.
- General Mills said it expects its organic net sales in fiscal 2024 to be anywhere from down 1% to flat as it deals with what CEO Jeff Harmening called an "evolving operating environment."
The big picture: Gas prices — one of the most significant determinants of consumers' feelings about the economy — are rising.
- While increases are typical at this time of year, the national average over the last month is 9 cents higher than a year ago, according to AAA.
The impact: Some consumers are beginning to look for cheaper alternatives to their staples.
- Darden CEO Ricardo Cardenas said the company is tracking "a few signs of some consumers trading down within our brands," including upper-income diners.
Reality check: The National Retail Federation Wednesday forecast 2024 retail sales growth between 2.5% and 3.5%, in line with last year and the 10-year pre-pandemic average, both of which are 3.6%, the group noted.
- The booming stock market and rock-solid job market should keep consumer confidence elevated.
The bottom line: Americans aren't exactly pinching pennies, but they are looking for savings.
2. Charted: Not quite 40,000 yet


Thursday's record-setting day for stocks had eyes trained on the Dow Jones Industrial Average today, which had a chance to hit 40,000 for the first time in its 128 years, Nathan writes.
- It didn't make it.
Between the lines: The Dow remains a significant investor gauge for stock market performance, although many still love to cite its flaws.
4. Truth Social is going public
Truth Social, the Twitter clone launched in 2022 by former President Trump, will become a publicly traded company by as early as next week, Axios' Dan Primack writes.
Driving the news: Shareholders of Digital World Acquisition Corp., a blank-check company, approved a merger today with Truth Social's parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group, ending a multiyear saga.
What's next: TMTG will essentially replace DWAC on the Nasdaq, with a board that includes Donald Trump Jr. and several former members of the Trump White House.
Follow the money: The vote effectively adds billions of dollars to Trump's net worth.
What we're watching: Trump is subject to a six-month share lockup, although that could be waived by the board. If that happens, the stock could sink fast if he begins to sell.
- There also are market demand questions. DWAC shares closed down 14% today.
5. 💍 A tough time for love
An "engagement trough" triggered by the pandemic is hurting ring sales, according to Signet Jewelers.
💔 The big picture: The pandemic temporarily cratered the formation of new romantic relationships — notwithstanding those of you who formed remote bonds while stuck at home, Nathan writes.
- Now, three to four years later, there are fewer engagements because of it. (These things take time, you know.)
- The "deep COVID-induced engagement trough" led to "an overstocked industry that drove an elevated promotional environment," Signet Jewelers CEO Virginia Drosos said Wednesday on an earnings call.
The impact: Signet's stock fell 11% this week as the owner of Kay Jewelers, Zales and Jared said its fiscal-year sales were down 11.6%.
What's next: Signet is projecting a 5%–10% increase in engagements this year.
- "We have statistically significant data that shows us that once a couple has experienced a certain number of the proprietary milestones that we've identified, and that number being 25, they're much more likely ... to get engaged," Drosos said.
❤️ Nathan's thought bubble: I never lost faith in love.
6. What they're saying
"We're not happy with the issues that our competitor's having. I think it's not helpful for the industry, and if it's not helpful for the industry, it's not helpful for Airbus."— Airbus CFO Thomas Toepfer, to CNBC, on rival Boeing's troubles.
Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Sheryl Miller.
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