If there's a "blue wave" of Democratic success at the polls this fall, it won't mean much for the leaders who already run Beacon Hill, but it could bury the opposition party even deeper.

Why it matters: Republicans currently hold about 15 percent of seats across the House and Senate. It's a small but not inconsequential presence that assures at least some amount of open debate and public votes.

• Republicans have seen their numbers dwindle when Democrats win big.

During the 2006 anti-Bush midterms, aka the "thumpin'," the House GOP dropped from 21 seats to 19.

• The 2008 Obama wave cost them another three seats.
• The 2018 anti-Trump surge saw the loss of another GOP Senate seat and two more in the House.

Yes, but: Geography plays a role here. Many legislative districts go uncontested entirely. That caps how much any wave can actually move the body.

Between the lines: Voters say they don't like the Legislature. In fact, 51% see it unfavorably.

• But voters keep sending incumbents back to the State House every two years.
• There are few political consequences for Democrats, even when voters say they're dissatisfied.

Here's the pattern: Wave energy in Massachusetts won't cause dramatic power shifts -- it'll produced incremental compression of an already-diminished minority.

• And if voters return Gov. Maura Healey to the Corner Office as expected, the GOP will be left with very little voice in Massachusetts policy.

A smaller GOP caucus loses leverage to insist on roll call votes, which require a minimum threshold of members. Fewer Republicans also means fewer opportunities to stall legislation, demand amendments or try to rile up dissenting floor debate.

What we're watching: Longtime House Minority Leader Brad Jones of Reading is stepping down after this term and Republicans will have to replace him.

• Some in the caucus want a more aggressive leader to combat the Democratic hegemony.

The bottom line: Democrats already wield veto-proof supermajorities in both the House and Senate. A wave year won't unlock new power, but it will cement it.

Share this column

🏀 The Celtics beat the Charlotte Hornets, 114-99, despite playing without stars Jaylen Brown and Derrick White yesterday. (NBC Boston)

• Last night's win guaranteed Boston a playoff spot for the 12th consecutive season.

A group of Jamaica Plain parents say they raised enough money to keep their branch of the Croft School open until June. (Globe)

• The announcement comes two weeks after parents in JP, the South End and Rhode Island learned that the private school's founder had been accused of forging bank documents and hiding $13 million in debt.
• South End parents say they are close to reaching their own goal to keep their neighborhood's school open.

More than 100 people attended a memorial service Saturday for Emmanuel Cleeford Damas, a Haitian man from Boston who died earlier this month in an immigrant detention facility in Arizona. (WBUR)

Cambridge-based Takeda Pharmaceuticals plans to cut 247 jobs in Massachusetts and 387 in other states under a global restructuring. (BBJ)

Even for those accustomed to the indignities of air travel, it's clear that right now is a particularly terrible time to fly.

The big picture: The Iran war is creating major travel headaches on top of an already chaotic situation at airports in the U.S., raising the prospect of a downturn in the travel industry.

The latest: More than 52,000 flights to and from the Middle East have been canceled since the war began on Feb. 28, according to data cited by the New York Times.

• The conflict is spiking fuel prices — the average price of a gallon of jet fuel is up about 60% this month, much of that a result of an increase in refining costs because the war is disrupting key infrastructure, per the Argus Jet Fuel Index.
• Some airlines are already raising prices, per NBC News, and the industry warns that a sustained conflict could have long-lasting impacts on prices across the industry.
• At the same time, airport security lines in the U.S. have grown comically long in the wake of the partial government shutdown.

The bottom line: Americans' appetite to spend on going places has been a driver of economic growth in recent years. Even after our zeal for revenge travel subsided, spending continued to grow.

Monday, 3/30

Lady Gaga: The Mayhem Ball wraps up her two-night stand at TD Garden, with a career-spanning spectacle of high-concept pop, 8pm.

• Price: $150+.

Tuesday, 3/31

Jade Song discusses her new book, I Love You Don't Die, at Brookline Booksmith, exploring grief, memory and the digital afterlife, 7pm.

• Price: $5 (voucher) or free with book purchase.

Thursday, 4/2

Cardi B: Little Miss Drama Tour takes over TD Garden with high-energy hip-hop and elaborate set designs, 7:30pm.

• Price: $65+.

Friday, 4/3

Wicked Queer: The Boston LGBTQ+ Film Festival kicks off the 2026 season at the Brattle Theatre.

• It's a week-long slate of international queer cinema, shorts and experimental film, 7pm.
• The festival runs through April 12 at multiple venues, including the ICA and the Museum of Fine Arts.
• Price: $15+.

Saturday, 4/4

Alamo Drafthouse Seaport celebrates The Super Mario Galaxy Movie with a "Family Party" at the film's release, with a themed menu, Mario Kart tournaments and interactive props, 6:30pm.

• Price: $18+.

Puscifer brings Maynard James Keenan's experimental rock project to the Boch Center Wang Theatre. It'll be a surreal, multimedia performance that blends music, comedy and theater, 8pm.

• Price: $45+.

Sunday, 4/5

Thievery Corporation performs at the House of Blues with their signature blend of dub, bossa nova and electronic world music, 7pm.

• Price: $40+.

Forward this to a friend who needs a reason to cross the river.

Droves of protesters packed Boston Common Saturday for the "No Kings" rally, one of several demonstrations held nationwide.

• Organizers say more than 180,000 people turned out for the Boston demonstration.