Axios AM

June 30, 2025
Good Monday morning. Smart Brevityโข count: 1,377 words ... 5 mins. Thanks to Natalie Daher for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
๐๏ธ Situational awareness: The Senate debated late into the night, and will start its vote-a-rama on President Trump's megabill this morning. Get the latest.
1 big thing: Wall Street is post-tariff

The S&P 500 was on track to hit a new record Friday, then sank when President Trump announced the termination of trade talks with Canada.
- Within an hour, investors decided not to care, and stocks closed at an all-time high for the first time since February, Axios' Madison Mills writes.
Why it matters: Wall Street is largely post-tariff. The market is a forward-looking machine, and it's already priced in better-than-expected trade deals before they're signed.
๐ Zoom in: There are several bullish signals strategists would rather focus on than tariffs, which fueled the 19% decline in stocks just a couple months ago.
- Expectations are building around the "big, beautiful bill" being passed sooner rather than later, which could be a fresh catalyst.
- Recent declines in the dollar may be a long-term risk. But for now, this could be a cushion that drives earnings beats across the big tech names.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continues to pitch an economic agenda that's a three-legged stool: tax, trade, and deregulation. Investors are salivating over the prospect of looser government oversight.
๐๏ธ Headline-driven volatility is a given under this administration, so don't let it impact your portfolio, advisers say.
- Jay Pelosky of TPW Advisors says he pays "no attention" to tariff policy anymore.
- Friday's action was "reflecting the improved investor sentiment and overall investor confidence," said Mike Dickson, head of research at Horizon Investments.
Reality check: Economists caution that a slowdown in consumer spending, which is already happening, could worsen as tariff-driven inflation takes full effect.
- It will be another couple of months until we know how much increased tariffs have impacted inflation, per Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist with RSM US.
2. ๐ณ๏ธ Tillis quits after Trump threats

Soon after getting primary threats for opposing Trump's signature domestic policy bill, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced he wouldn't run for re-election in 2026, Axios' Lucille Sherman, Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt report.
- Why it matters: Tillis faced a brutal fight to keep his seat โ with both the potential of Trump-backed challengers, and a general election that Democrats see as a chance to narrow the GOP's Senate majority.

The two-term senator told lawmakers he'd oppose the final version of the "one big, beautiful bill" over its cuts to Medicaid and other health services.
- He and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) were the only two Republicans who voted Saturday night against starting debate on the legislation.

๐งฎ What to watch: There's a large pool of potential GOP candidates for Tillis' seat, including RNC chair Michael Whatley and former RNC vice chair Lara Trump.
- Lara Trump is "thinking" about a campaign, one Trump adviser told Axios. She "would have a hard time saying no if asked by her father-in-law," another Trump adviser told Axios, although they'd be "surprised if she wants to leave the amazing gig she has at Fox."
One top Republican said Lara Trump would have "right of first refusal."
- North Carolina also has a slate of freshman Republican lawmakers who could be poised to throw their names in the hat. Among them: Reps. Pat Harrigan, Tim Moore and Brad Knott.
Two Democrats have already announced their candidacies: former Rep. Wiley Nickel and Andy Nilsson, a retired businessman and former lieutenant governor candidate.
- Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has also been expected to enter the race.
3. ๐ House is handed even bigger bill

The Senate reconciliation package being debated this week would add $3.3 trillion in budget deficits over the next 10 years, Axios' Justin Green writes from an estimate by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
- Why it matters: That's more than the $2.8 trillion in estimated deficits in the version the House passed last month. If the Senate passes the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," it would need to return to the House.
Between the lines: "Republicans in the House had sought to limit the size of the tax cut by necessitating that its cost not be more than $2.5 trillion larger than the total spending reductions," the N.Y. Times notes.
- "The Senate plan would miss that benchmark, angering some conservatives in the House, where nearly every Republican would have to support the bill for it to pass."
Republicans pushed back against the CBO's math. White House economists say the bill would reduce deficits, although that's an outlier forecast compared to other models.
- Changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act in the Senate version would result in nearly 12 million more uninsured people by 2034, versus 10.8 million more people for the House bill, per CBO.
Explore CBO's data ... Go deeper: What's in the megabill.
4. โก Two Axios AI scoops

Axios Pro: Policy reporters have two scoops on tech policy from Capitol Hill and the White House:
- ๐๏ธ Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) have reached an agreement on a watered-down state AI regulation in the "one big, beautiful bill," Axios' Maria Curi reported last night. Blackburn will no longer file an amendment to strip the provision from the bill. She negotiated a five-year moratorium instead of 10, with carveouts for AI bills that protect name, image and likeness and kids' online safety.
- ๐ซ The White House is announcing an "AI Education Pledge" today with commitments from more than 60 companies to provide AI education materials to K-12 students the next four years, per an announcement shared exclusively with Axios' Ashley Gold.
Why it matters: The Trump administration's full-throated embrace of AI and AI companies is a departure from the Biden administration, which focused on safety rather than encouraging education and technology uptakes.
5. ๐ค Exclusive: Rise of AI-savvy generalist

Generative AI is replacing low-complexity, repetitive work โ while also fueling demand for AI-related jobs, Axios' Megan Morrone writes from freelance marketplace Upwork data shared first with Axios.
- "If you were a traditional machine learning expert, and now you're augmenting that work with generative AI, you're seeing such a great premium," Kelly Monahan, managing director of the Upwork Research Institute, told Axios.
- The same is true for graphic designers who use AI image or video generation tools, she said.
Explore the data ... Keep reading.
Editor's note: This item has been corrected to reflect that Kelly Monahan is the managing director (not manager) of the Upwork Research Institute.
6. ๐ Quote du jour: Mamdani on billionaires

Zohran Mamdani said on "Meet the Press" that billionaires shouldn't exist.
- "I don't think that we should have billionaires, because, frankly, it is so much money in a moment of such inequality," the presumptive New York City Democratic mayoral nominee told NBC's Kristen Welker.
- "What we need more of is equality across our city and across our state and across our country."
7. ๐ซ Best airport ranking

Portland has the best airport in the U.S., according to a Washington Post ranking (gift link).
- The Post gathered data on the 450-plus U.S. airports with at least 1,000 passenger departures. The analysis considered such factors as ease of travel to the airport on public transit and by car ... ease of navigation inside ... reviews of restaurant and shopping ... and share of on-time arrivals.
โ๏ธ The top 10:
- PDX: Portland International Airport
- LGB: Long Beach (Calif.) Airport
- DCA: Ronald Reagan International Airport
- MSP: Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport
- PAE: Seattle Paine Field International Airport
- PVD: Rhode Island T.F. Green International Airport
- ABQ: Albuquerque International Airport
- IND: Indianapolis International Airport
- SLC: Salt Lake City International Airport
- DTW: Detroit Metro Airport
8. ๐๏ธ 1 film thing: Apple's "F1" win

"F1 The Movie," starring Brad Pitt, delivered Apple its biggest theatrical opening yet โ and its first big-screen hit.
- The film debuted at No. 1 over the weekend with $56 million in North American ticket sales and $144 million globally.
- Pitt stars as an injured F1 driver who comes out of retirement to race with a rookie driver played by British actor Damson Idris.
๐ฅ "Taking on Formula One is a bold move since it has never been the marquee sport in the U.S. that it is overseas," the Hollywood Reporter writes.
- It "cost a net $200 million to produce before marketing, if not closer to $300 million, so will need long legs to turn a profit at the box office."
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