Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
The Senate's reconciliation bill would result in 11.8 million more uninsured people by 2034, the CBO said in a new analysis.
Why it matters: The projection highlights what's at stake if Republican Medicaid cuts and other payfors take effect, and is nearly 1 million higher than the 10.9 million more uninsured that CBO estimated for the House bill.
Driving the news: The health changes are pivotal for lowering federal spending by hundreds of billions of dollars. Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden said Saturday that a preliminary CBO analysis showed $930 billion in Medicaid cuts.
- Past CBO estimates have found that the new Medicaid work requirements are a source of most of the coverage losses. Republicans argue able-bodied people should be working, while Democrats counter many Medicaid recipients already are, and that people will lose coverage from red tape.
- CBO said 1.4 million of the uninsured total is from people without "satisfactory immigration status," referring to undocumented immigrants losing state-funded coverage.
- There are also new barriers to Affordable Care Act marketplace enrollment aimed at fighting fraud that contribute to coverage losses.
- The CBO has previously said that failure to renew the enhanced ACA subsidies expiring at the end of this year will add another 4.2 million uninsured on top of the numbers directly from this bill.
Between the lines: The latest projection doesn't account for a proposal to lower the Medicaid federal matching share of costs, or FMAP, in expansion states.
- Sen. Ron Johnson told reporters Saturday night that conservatives have been promised an amendment vote on Sen. Rick Scott's proposal to lower the 90% federal share for new expansion enrollees.
- Several GOP senators have long objected to FMAP cuts, so the amendment could face resistance.
