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February 05, 2025
๐ซ Hello, Wednesday! Smart Brevityโข count: 1,951 words ... 7ยฝ mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
โก Situational awareness: President Trump picked Neil Jacobs, the acting NOAA chief who got entangled in "Sharpiegate" during his first administration, to lead the agency. Go deeper.
1 big thing: Trump's wild Middle East vision

On the 15th day, he proclaimed Gaza ours, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.
Why it matters: There are two ways to view President Trump's epic, historic, shockingly unexpected declaration last evening that the U.S. should seize, control, develop and hold "a long-term ownership position" in war-destroyed Gaza.
- It was a wild bluff โ or bluster โ to gain leverage in the Middle East. It's like threats of trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico โ all-consumingly controversial, yet instantly ephemeral. This strikes most Republicans as the right interpretation.
- The other: It fuses several Trump obsessions โ his hope for a grand Middle East peace deal, his belief Gaza will be a hellhole for decades to come, and his genuine intrigue about developing the seaside land. U.S. officials tell us Trump's words were premeditated, and mirror ideas he floated to some staff and family members privately.
๐ญ What he said: "The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip," Trump said, reading from notes in the East Room during the first formal news conference of his presidency, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his side. "We'll own it, and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous, unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site."
- Asked later who he envisions living in a rebuilt Gaza, Trump replied: "I envision the world people living there โ the world's people. I think you'll make that into an international, unbelievable place."
Trump, channeling his inner developer, added: "We have an opportunity to do something that could be phenomenal. And I don't want to be cute, I don't want to be a wise guy, but: the Riviera of the Middle East. ... This could be so magnificent. ... We'll make sure that it's done world-class โ it'll be wonderful for the people."

๐ผ๏ธ The big picture: Like everything with Trump, his views and motivations are gray despite being expressed in stark black and white.
- "He's moving the goalposts of crazy," a longtime adviser told us. "This time around, he's not intimidated by headlines or pundits: He's gonna throw out there whatever he feels like throwing out there."
- Trump's message to the Middle East, in the words of this adviser: "I can make it a lot worse for you guys, or you can come up with a better plan."
๐ฅ Reality check: There are massive obstacles to Trump's vision.
- The human toll would be staggering: 2 million Palestinians call Gaza home and haven't consented to being forced out of their territory, despite the colossal destruction from 16 months of war.
- The leaders of Egypt and Jordan have vehemently rejected Trump's plan to resettle those Palestinians on their territory. Not to mention the broader regional consensus, including in Saudi Arabia, that Gaza should be part of a Palestinian state โ not an American one.
Human rights groups have already condemned the proposal as ethnic cleansing.
- Trump campaigned on ending foreign wars, but he left the door open last evening to sending U.S. troops to Gaza "if necessary." Left unmentioned was what would be done about Hamas, which remains a force in Gaza and has recruited 10,000-15,000 fighters since the start of the war, according to U.S. intelligence.
- Trump's "America First" allies in the Republican Party are quietly raising their eyebrows, especially with his administration actively in the process of dismantling USAID for using taxpayer dollars overseas.
Column continues below.
2. ๐ง Part 2: What Trump's thinking

People want to put a frame around Trump's most dramatic moves or public statements, Jim and Mike write.
- But everyone on the inside knows it's Trump being Trump โ feeling wholly confident, unrestrained, liberated to say and propose whatever pops into his mind.
The Gaza idea is a collision of three private Trump views:
- He believes a big peace deal, with the Saudis at the center, is doable.
- He was genuinely moved by the scope of the destruction of Gaza, and the realization it could take decades to rebuild.
- He and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, see this as authentic prime real estate โ "waterfront property" that could draft off all the power and money flowing through the Middle East.
But Trump seemed to undermine his hopes for a broader Middle East deal. The Saudis were furious with both Trump's idea, and his claim they would accept a deal that does not include a Palestinian state, sources tell Axios' Barak Ravid.
๐ Behind the scenes: A source close to Trump said the Gaza overture was Trump's own idea, and he had been thinking about it for at least two months, Barak reports.
- A U.S. official said Trump presented the plan because he came to the conclusion that no one else had any new ideas for Gaza.
The bottom line: Chaos isn't an accident. Trump and his aides know that the tsunami of ideas, executive orders and proclamations makes it hard for opponents to unite around a single message.
- Think about you or your friends: Are you more intrigued or worked up by all his controversial nominees ... or Greenland ... or trade wars ... or USAID ... or Elon Musk ... or Ukraine ... or South Africa ... or TikTok ... or a new sovereign wealth fund ... or Trump's own crypto? No human can process this much he-did-what news this fast.
Zachary Basu contributed reporting ... Share this column.
3. ๐คฏ Trump stuns world

President Trump's declaration that the U.S. could "take over" Gaza surprised many of his own advisers, thrilled right-wing Israelis, and deeply alarmed the governments in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, sources in Washington and around the region tell Axios' Barak Ravid.
- Trump's plan to displace 2 million Palestinians came at a very sensitive point of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal. It could even embolden both Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resume the war.
๐ค Being there: The sense of shock was palpable among the 150 journalists in the East Room.
- Very few people on Trump's team knew in advance that he would go so far as to pronounce the U.S. would "own" the war-scarred enclave โ a highly interventionist endeavor for a long-time critic of U.S. nation-building around the world.
๐ฎ๐ฑ Some members of Netanyahu's delegation left the room almost jubilant.
- The visit was "truly historic" and "exceeded all of our expectations and dreams," one senior Israeli official gushed. "Trump raised genius solutions to problems that Israel has faced since its establishment."
- Trump's displacement plan was praised by members of the Israeli far-right as a "green light" for full Israeli occupation of Gaza and the building of settlements. A source close to Trump said that's not his intention.
๐ญ Zoom out: Leaders in Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority were already horrified by Trump's repeated comments over the last two weeks about expelling Palestinians from Gaza. They will be even more nervous now.
- Trump's comments also shocked Saudi Arabia โ a country which the president described Tuesday as a key partner in implementing his plans in the region, a U.S. source close to the Saudis told Axios.
- The Saudis were also upset about Trump's claim at the top of his meeting with Netanyahu that the kingdom won't condition normalization of relations with Israel on Palestinian statehood.
๐ธ๐ฆ Although it was around 4 a.m. in Riyadh, the Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded statement rejecting that claim and opposing Trump's plan for displacing Palestinians.
- The U.S. source said: "The Saudi crown prince doesn't want to be seen as being part of what Trump is talking about."
๐ก Between the lines: Trump sees the Gaza Strip as prime real estate that could be at the center of a regional deal involving Saudi Arabia, Israel and other countries.
- But his plan doesn't grapple with the deep historic trauma of displacement for the Palestinians and for countries in the region.
- "He is a disruptor. He wanted to challenge the discourse," a source close to Trump said.
๐ฎ What's next: King Abdullah II of Jordan will arrive in Washington next week, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi the week after that, for what should be dramatic meetings with Trump.
4. ๐ข First look: Biggest office leases growing again


America's biggest office leases actually got bigger last year, according to data from commercial real estate firm CBRE, shared first with Axios' Sami Sparber.
- Why it matters:ย The return-to-office push could spread as both President Trump and many CEOs push for more in-person work.
By the numbers: The combined size of the 100 biggest leases climbed around 8% in 2024 from 2023 โ remaining well below the pre-pandemic 2019 level, CBRE data shows.
- The tech industry reclaimed its spot as the leader in leasing large offices, driven in part by AI companies, per the report. Tech businesses held 29 of the top 100 leases in 2024, compared to 11 in 2023.
5. ๐ฆพ Navy leaders "embrace the robots"
The unmanned obsession is very real inside the U.S. Navy, Axios Future of Defense author Colin Demarest writes.
- Why it matters: Look at Ukraine and the Black Sea beatings it hands out. Look at the Red Sea and Houthi persistence. Look at the Pentagon's budget, the online think pieces and where elite units are splurging.
The future โ mechanical, intelligent, overwhelming โ is smacking us in the face.
- U.S. Navy Special Warfare Command boss Rear Adm. Milton Sands said at a conference in San Diego that the military must "embrace the robots," as "machine-on-machine fighting" rages and humans stick to safer margins.
๐ Zoom in: On the water, drone boats and robo-subs are augmenting the firepower of more traditional and more expensive ships.
- All these systems must work together, in sync with tech from other militaries and in places flooded with jamming and spoofing.
Keep reading. ... Get Colin's weekly newsletter, Axios Future of Defense.
6. ๐ Trump pulls most USAID workers worldwide

The Trump administration is placing most of the U.S. Agency for International Development's 10,000 staffers around the world on leave, effective Friday at 11:59 p.m. ET.
- Why it matters: Yesterday's directive, posted online, means the vast majority of overseas workers will rapidly return home, Axios' Andrew Freedman and Rebecca Falconer write.
Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have heavily targeted USAID in the early days of the second Trump presidency.
- Musk tweeted Monday: "We spent the weekend feeding USAID into the wood chipper."
The agency and the State Department are preparing a plan for USAID personnel currently posted overseas that would arrange and pay for return travel to the U.S. within 30 days.
7. ๐ณ Egg surcharges
Restaurants are starting to crack under the weight of the nation's egg crisis, Axios' Nathan Bomey and Kelly Tyko write.
- Why it matters: A devastating bird flu outbreak has ravaged the nation's supply of eggs, leading to egg shortages and increased prices at grocery stores.
๐ฅ Waffle House โ based in suburban Atlanta, with 2,100 locations nationwide โ added a temporary surcharge of 50ยข-per-egg surcharge, citing record-high prices and the biggest bird flu outbreak in a decade.
- Smaller, more local chains and individual restaurants have already added surcharges.
8. ๐ฐ 1 for the road: Sports betting record

Sunday's Super Bowl matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs could break records in legal betting in the U.S., Axios' Analis Bailey writes.
- Why it matters: The American Gaming Association estimates Americans will wager $1.39 billion on the Super Bowl.
That's an 11.2% increase from the projection made by research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming for last year's Super Bowl.
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