America has been napping or distracted by trivialities while China is racing toward the future, in part by taking advantage of President Trump's trade, immigration and budget policies.

• That's the eye-opening reality that Evan Osnos unfurls in a 12-page piece for The New Yorker, "The Future, Made in China."

Why it matters: China could beat the U.S. to the future on a host of fronts, including engineering a cure for cancer.

🇨🇳 "For China, America's retreat comes just as decades of state investment, industrial policy, and diplomatic planning are paying off," Osnos writes.

• An American executive told him: "People in Washington are worried that biotech is the next E.V.s ... We've scared all of this f*cking talent back to China. If you look at the guys who are doing this, they used to work for Western pharma giants, or they were running a top university department somewhere."
• In a flex, China now welcomes Western influencers, investors and commentators on "tech tours" that yield "infrastructure porn" and "Chinamaxxing."

🛂 Being there: Osnos, who lived in Beijing for eight years as a foreign correspondent, returned for 10 days as part of four months of reporting. He says the capital is noticeably quieter than when he left in 2013 — "an awkward serenity to life in the capital of a high-tech, one-party state."

• "The vehicles, many of which are electric now, move silently through the streets, and in any case the residents have fewer reasons to go out; China has the world's busiest e-commerce market, and there isn't much that can't be delivered on the back of a scooter," he writes.
• "All day long, people scan each other's QR codes to swap cash on such digital-payment systems as WeChat and Alipay, feeding the algorithms an ever more intricate portrait of their movements and preferences."

👁️ The surveillance future is here: Osnos felt constantly watched — because he was, including psychologically. At an AI expo in Beijing, Osnos stood in front of a kiosk that took an emotional X-ray by measuring "micro-gestures" in his face. The results: He possesses 76.67% positive emotion and 23.33% negative emotion, split between fear and rage.

• The state can use such readings to zero in on potential disruptors. The same manufacturer makes a scan for schools that assigns pupils an alert level of red, yellow or blue.

By the numbers: China produces 70% of the world's drones, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells, the magazine says, and "deploys more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined, and, in medicine, it has surpassed the United States in the number of registered clinical trials."

• China's shipbuilding capacity is 200 times that of the U.S.

💡 Between the lines: China's rulers avoid "overtly antagonizing America, because they believe that, even in decline, it remains uniquely dangerous."

• But Rush Doshi, China specialist at Georgetown and CFR, says that if the U.S. loses the next wave of industries — AI, biotech and robotics — as it lost on solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, "it would irreversibly change the balance of power."
• A think tank at Renmin University of China, in Beijing, published a report called "Thank Trump," which argues that his tariffs, attacks on allies and immigration policies have hastened the "twilight of an empire."

The bottom line: A European diplomat who has attended meetings with Xi Jinping and his advisers told Osnos they're "feeling like the champions of the world."

• Keep reading.

A special look for AM readers at Axios CEO Jim VandeHei's political briefing, published first in his weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter:

You're probably 582 days from Democrats having a true leader who can show and shape the party's direction.

• Why it matters: Until Super Tuesday — that's March 7, 2028 — or well beyond, Democrats will be leaderless, and likely split between rising socialist energy and more traditional, establishment liberalism.

🔎 Zoom in: DNC Chair Ken Martin will likely get ousted and leave behind a hot financial mess and cashless dumpster fire, top Dems tell us.

• House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) has a legit shot at rising to speaker. But he'd likely lack a big enough majority, as well as the instincts and ambition, to lead beyond the House.
• The future of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) is fragile. If he doesn't win the majority, he'll likely be challenged for the top job. Then, he'll be preoccupied with AOC running for his Senate seat and ending his career. Even if she goes for the White House instead, his future at home and as party leader is in doubt.
• Barack Obama is the only Dem with true national sway — and he's made plain he wants to work things mostly behind the scenes (although he's headlining a redistricting fundraiser on Martha's Vineyard on Aug. 31).

👑 That leaves Bernie Sanders as the most powerful kingmaker for '28 given his network and sustained popularity.

• Advantage: AOC.

📈 If you're a CEO or on a CEO's team: Ask to join Jim's new weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter.

Here's what should give Dems hope and motivation:

You should expect that whichever party wins the White House in 2028 will also control all of Congress, Jim VandeHei continues in his Axios C-Suite political briefing.

• Wild stat: 18 of 22 presidents going back to Teddy Roosevelt took office with full control of government. Clinton, Bush 43, Obama, Trump and Biden all did.

Why it matters: Insane political volatility is the rule, not the exception, of modern elections. That means more regulatory and policy uncertainty, including the rising possibility of socialism among Democrats and sustained Trumpism among Republicans.

👀 What to watch: The 2028 Senate map is the best in a decade for Democrats. Republicans hold 19 of 34 Senate seats that'll be up, including Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.

• 💡 If you're a CEO or on a CEO's team: Ask to join Jim's new weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter.

President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One yesterday that negotiations with Iran will begin this afternoon after he canceled attack plans Saturday night.

• "I was asked to by Saudi Arabia, by UAE, by Qatar, and by Iran," he said, confirming reporting by Axios' Barak Ravid. "[T]he reason they asked is they think there's a deal. There's a deal on Hormuz, and then there will be a deal on the ... denuclearization of Iran."

👀 Oil fell on signs of a diplomatic breakthrough. (Bloomberg)

Nearly eight months after President Trump predicted U.S. companies would "rapidly rebuild Venezuela's dilapidated oil industry" to boost production, no new petroleum deals have been finalized with American firms.

• The U.S. Department of Energy is largely to blame, a dozen oil industry professionals, senior U.S. officials and Venezuela insiders tell Axios' Marc Caputo.

📈 Why it matters: The price of oil is climbing as the Iran war squeezes global supplies, spotlighting the absence of finalized deals in Venezuela — a nation with the highest estimated petroleum reserves on the planet.

• "We have no new concessions. No new deals. It is absolutely a problem," a senior U.S. official told Axios. "The Energy Department is in charge of this and they have some explaining to do."
• The Energy Department and its defenders call the criticisms misleading and unfair.

Between the lines: Trump's plan was complicated by two divides — one in his own government, the other in the oil industry.

1. 🥊 Trump's administration is split between MAGA types and regulatory professionals: MAGA loyalists want Washington to heed Trump's Jan. 9 comments and force Venezuela's state-run oil company, called PDVSA, to quickly adopt common international industry contracting standards. The more cautious bureaucrats in the Energy Department, who have relatively little international oil-industry experience, advocated for a slower process, working more collaboratively with Caracas.
2. 🛢️ The oil industry is split between major global firms that move relatively slowly and deliberatively, and smaller independent firms — nicknamed "wildcatters" — known for their speed and higher risk tolerance. The "majors," like Exxon and ConocoPhillips, publicly made clear they were cool to the idea of going back to Venezuela because of all the uncertainty. But several wildcatters were eager to get in.

Keep reading.

Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) went live on X yesterday to deny allegations he abused his ex-wife and their young daughter and to say he'll stay in his re-election race. Shortly after his announcement, his ex-father-in-law, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), denounced him as a "danger" to his daughter and unfit for office.

• The extraordinary public split between two Trump-aligned Ohio Republicans comes days before the state's Wednesday deadline to replace Miller on the ballot with a special election, Axios' Andrew Pantazi writes.

🔭 The big picture: Faced with a narrow path to winning control of the House, Democrats see a rising chance to win Miller's seat, which he won two years ago with just over 51% of the vote, AP reports.

• Miller faces Democrat Brian Poindexter, a union ironworker endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, in Ohio's 7th congressional district outside of Cleveland. Voters in the district backed President Trump by 11 points in 2024, 10 points in 2020 and 12 points in 2016.

✈️ A reporter asked Trump aboard Air Force One yesterday whether he thought Miller should resign following the allegations.

• "I'm gonna look at it," Trump said. "I mean, so far, it's accusations."

Go deeper.

America's biggest companies are on a hot streak this earnings season: They're reporting double-digit profit growth in spite of high interest rates, higher energy prices and cautious consumer spending, the Financial Times reports ($).

• Stunning stat: S&P 500 companies are on track to report profits that are 47.4% higher than a year ago, according to FactSet. If that holds, it would mark the strongest quarter for corporate profit growth in five years — since the pandemic rebound.

Nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported profits that beat Wall Street's expectations.

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" delivered the second-biggest domestic opening weekend ever, raking in $355 million across nearly 4,500 U.S. theaters.

• It's second to "Avengers: Endgame," which made $357.1 million on its April 2019 opening weekend, The Hollywood Reporter notes.
• Internationally, "Spider-Man" earned $572 million, for a $927 million global debut — also the second-largest ever, behind "Endgame" at $1.2 billion.

🦸 Stat du jour: Marvel Studios has racked up the four largest openings of all time at the domestic box office, Variety reports.

• The other two are from the same franchises: "Spider-Man: No Way Home" and "Avengers: Infinity War."

💬 The money quote: Tom Rothman, CEO of Sony Pictures Entertainment Motion Picture Group, said "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" is "fundamentally a movie about friendship, about the balm of connection in all our lives ... That is resonant to audiences of all ages and all around the world."