Axios AM

June 18, 2025
π« Happy Wednesday! Smart Brevityβ’ count: 1,653 words ... 6 mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
1 big thing: Trump's MAGA purity test
Ten years after Donald Trump hijacked the GOP with a promise to burn down the establishment, his own movement is warning him not to go soft, Axios' Tal Axelrod and Zachary Basu write.
- Why it matters: On two core articles of faith β no foreign wars and no protections for unauthorized immigrants β the Trump administration is facing a rare MAGA purity test.
π Zoom in: No debate has proven more divisive for the "America First" movement than Israel's war against Iran, and whether the U.S. should intervene to fully eliminate Tehran's nuclear program.
- MAGA's most outspoken isolationists β Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) β have warned that joining the war would betray Trump's legacy and potentially destroy his presidency.
- Pro-Israel hardliners β Laura Loomer, Mark Levin, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) β argue that nothing would be more "America First" than striking a regime that chants "Death to America" and has plotted to assassinate Trump.
The intrigue: Amid mounting signs that the U.S. is considering joining the war, Trump says his fundamental position β that Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon β has never wavered.
- Trump even publicly smacked down Carlson over his criticism of U.S. involvement, telling The Atlantic: "Well, considering that I'm the one that developed 'America First' ... I think I'm the one that decides that."
Vice President Vance, a fierce critic of foreign interventions, defended Trump's position in a lengthy X post in which he said the president "may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment."

Back at home, prominent MAGA voices were stunned to read Trump's Truth Social post last week suggesting that unauthorized immigrants who work in agriculture or hospitality might be spared from deportation.
- MAGA purists, including Bannon and Charlie Kirk, believe that every immigrant here illegally should be deported β with some claiming Trump's new guidance created unfair carve-outs for "big agriculture."
- Much of the backlash landed on Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, after Axios and others reported she had lobbied for the exemption, citing potential labor shortages. "She needs to be removed," activist Ned Ryun wrote Sunday.
The latest: Amid the backlash, the Department of Homeland Security reversed Trump's guidance just a few days later, telling immigration agents to continue raids at farms, hotels and restaurants after all, The Washington Post first reported.
- Trump, sensitive to the outrage from his base and hardline immigration advisers, on Sunday ordered expanded operations in Democrat-run cities and stressed that "all" undocumented immigrants must be deported.
πΌοΈ The big picture: Some MAGA influencers see the Iran and immigration flashpoints as inextricably linked.
- Bannon warned on his "War Room" podcast that getting "sucked into" a prolonged war in the Middle East would distract from Trump's most important domestic priority: mass deportations.
- Other Trump supporters view the two issues β helping Israel attack Iran and deporting unauthorized immigrants β as part of the same fight to preserve "Western Civilization."
2. βοΈ Trump-Bibi call

President Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last night after meeting with his national security team about the escalating war between Israel and Iran, Axios' Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler write.
- Why it matters: Ahead of the meeting, three U.S. officials said Trump was seriously considering joining the war and launching a U.S. strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, especially its underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordow.
The meeting took place in the White House Situation Room and lasted about an hour and 20 minutes.
- Two Israeli officials told Axios that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli defense establishment continue to believe that Trump is likely to enter the war in the coming days to bomb Iran's underground enrichment facility.
- So far, the U.S. has helped Israel defend itself from incoming missiles but hasn't taken part in offensive operations.

Happening overnight: Israeli warplanes pounded Iran's capital early today, after Trump demanded "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER."
- Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said today: "Any American intervention would be a recipe for an all-out war in the region." Get the latest.

Two front pages President Trump is sure to see this morning.
3. π€ ChatGPT's weak spot
AI can generate a larger volume of creative ideas than any human, but those ideas are too much alike, Axios' Megan Morrone writes from newly published research.
- Why it matters: AI makers say their tools are "great for brainstorming," but experts find that chatbots produce a more limited range of ideas than a group of humans.
How it works: Study participants were asked to brainstorm product ideas for a toy involving a brick and a fan, using either ChatGPT, their own ideas, or their ideas combined with web searches.
- 94% of ideas from those who used ChatGPT "shared overlapping concepts," according to the study published in Nature Human Behaviour.
- Participants who used their own ideas with the help of web searches produced the most "unique concepts," meaning a group of one or more ideas that did not overlap with any other ideas in the set.
Case in point: Nine participants using ChatGPT independently named their toy "Build-a-Breeze Castle."
π¨ The big picture: Wharton professors Gideon Nave and Christian Terwiesch and Wharton researcher Lennart Meincke found that subjects came up with a broader range of creative ideas when they used their own thoughts and web searches, compared to when they used ChatGPT.
4. π½ Charted: Cuomo's NYC lead

Andrew Cuomo holds a smaller-than-last month but still sizable lead over Zohran Mamdani βΒ the surging democratic socialist from Queens β in an anticipated NYC Democratic mayoral primary poll from Marist out this morning.
- Why it matters: Mamdani's charisma and populist platform β including freezing rent, no-fare buses and a $30 minimum wage by 2030 β have made him Cuomo's strongest challenger in the race to hold the "second toughest job in America."
The poll shows Cuomo is the first-choice candidate of 38% of likely Democratic voters for next Tuesday's primary.
- Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman, is in second with 27% βΒ up from 18% in Marist's poll last month.
- In ranked-choice voting β how NYC primaries are conducted β Marist estimates that Cuomo would beat Mamdani in the seventh round (charted above).
Zoom out: Mamdani's momentum has made him a rising star in Democratic politics.
- He was endorsed yesterday by Sen. Bernie Sanders and already has the backing of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who cast Cuomo, 67, as a member of the nation's political "gerontocracy."
The former governor's political baggage βΒ including sexual harassment accusations that forced his resignation, and questions about his handling of the pandemic βΒ gives his rivals massive targets in the final days of the campaign.
5. πΎ Israel-Iran cyber spillover
As Israel and Iran exchange airstrikes, cybersecurity experts are warning that a quieter, but still destructive, digital conflict is unfolding behind the scenes, Axios' Sam Sabin writes.
- U.S. companies could soon find themselves in the blast radius.
Why it matters: Iran and Israel are home to some of the world's most skilled hackers.
- Escalating tensions between the two could spill over into cyberspace, potentially disrupting critical infrastructure, commercial networks and global supply chains.
Zoom in: U.S. cybersecurity organizations are urging businesses to remain on high alert for possible Iranian cyberattacks on domestic infrastructure.
- Iran has a history of state-sponsored hackers and hacktivism targeting U.S. critical infrastructure during previous conflicts.
- Radware, a U.S.-based cybersecurity firm, estimated a 700% increase in Iranian cyberattacks against Israeli targets since Israel launched its initial missile strike on Tehran on June 12.
6. π₯ X vs. The Wall Street Journal

CANNES, France β X CEO Linda Yaccarino and Wall Street Journal editor-in-chief Emma Tucker traded blows this week in separate Axios interviews at the annual Cannes Lions ad festival.
- Yaccarino slammed The Wall Street Journal while repeatedly dismissing its recent report that accuses X of threatening to sue advertisers that didn't buy ads on the platform.
- When Axios' Sara Fischer asked her whether the report was true at an Axios event in Cannes, France, Yaccarino dodged, responding, "Does anyone still read that publication?"
The big picture: X has been trying to revitalize its advertising business, which took a significant hit after Elon Musk bought the company in 2022.

The other side: Tucker said onstage that the news organization is getting used to being gaslit by CEOs and people in power in response to its journalism.
- "Linda Yaccarino said nobody reads the Wall Street Journal, and also that's news to me, because β you know β we have nearly 5 million subscribers now ... I'm surprised at her take on that," she said
- "We cannot think about the consequences of the stories we publish, and many of the stories we publish do upset political leaders or CEOs.
7. π‘ Axios briefing: Power of fandom


The few companies that have managed to master and monetize the risky strategy of tying a brand or product to a fan base or community are winning the war for attention.
- Axios Communicators Pro author Eleanor Hawkins is out now with a members-only report on how brands are tapping into fandoms and culture to drive revenue.
- The special report breaks down the generational divides impacting engagement and the growing role of CEOs as chief brand ambassadors.
Why it matters: Consumers have splintered off into information bubbles based on ideology, interest, wealth, career, age and location β making it nearly impossible for big brands to reach everyone.
- Subscribe here! Use code BRANDREPORT10 for 10% off.
8. π 1 for the road: Stanley Cup champs

The Florida Panthers won their second straight Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 6 last night, Axios Miami's Martin Vassolo writes.
- Why it matters: Just like last year, the Panthers stopped the Oilers from becoming the first Canadian team to win the Cup since 1993.
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