Axios AM

July 04, 2025
๐บ๐ธ Happy Fourth, and happy 249th, America! Axios' Kelly Tyko has one of her famous guides to stores and restaurants that are open.
- Smart Brevityโข count: 1,493 words ... 5ยฝ mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Edited by Lauren Floyd
1 big thing: Trump's crowning moment

With B-2 bombers booming above, President Trump will deliver a motherlode of campaign promises for his supporters today, decimate his predecessor's priorities and demonstrate his total dominance over the Republican Party, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.
- Why it matters: The MAGA mega bill is more than just an indisputable victory for the president and the party he has remade in his image.
It's also a stinging defeat for Democrats โ but has given them fodder for the 2026 midterms.
- With the stroke of his signature, Trump will undo the solar, wind and electric vehicles tax cuts that were at the core of President Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act.
- Trump will sign into law some long-term GOP goals, like making business tax credits permanent, pouring billions into border security and slowing the growth of Medicaid and SNAP spending.
- "It's going to make this country into a rocket ship," Trump said.
๐ญ Zoom out: The country will little note, nor long remember how Congress passed this bill โ the all-nighters, the nail-biters and the GOP false fighters, who ultimately tapped out for Trump.
- But Democrats will make it their mission to ensure that voters don't forget what Trump and congressional Republicans did in the bill.
- The tax cuts, they say, will benefit the already-wealthy the most โ and the Medicaid cuts that target the poor could devastate health care options for millions.

๐งฎ By the numbers: The tax cuts total $4.5 trillion over a decade, leading to $3.3 trillion in deficit spending, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
- Republicans will say the real winners are the 83% of households that would've been hit with a tax increase if Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act had expired at the end of the year.
- Democrats will focus on the more than $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, which is projected to put nearly 12 million Americans at risk of losing their health care and threaten rural hospitals across the country.
- Trump is giving his MAGA faithful $170 billion in border and immigration funds.
- Also tucked into the bill: a rise in the nation's debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
Then there are the Trumpian touches to the bill โ notably no taxes on tips, a suggestion he got from a Las Vegas waitress.
- For babies lucky enough to be born during Trump's second reign, there are $1,000 checks to be placed in "Trump accounts."

The bottom line: Four score and seven days ago, the S&P 500 closed at its lowest point of Trump's presidency.
- Yesterday it closed at a new record high, its seventh this year.
The economy โ for now โ appears to be shrugging off his tariffs, with the Labor Department reporting 147,000 new jobs in June, defying expectations.
2. ๐ก What's buried in the bill

The breakneck speed of deliberation over the nearly 900-page bill that's on its way to President Trump's desk leaves plenty of minutiae to sift through, Axios' Herb Scribner writes.
- Here are three under-the-radar pieces of the bill to watch out for:
๐ฐ 1. Gambling: In the new bill, gamblers would only be able to deduct 90% of their losses from their net income when paying taxes. Currently, gamblers can deduct 100%.
- Translation: A hypothetical gambler who won $100,000 but lost $100,000 would have to pay taxes on $10,000 of income.
๐ต 2. Charitable giving: The new bill allows those who take the standard deduction when filing their tax returns to deduct up to $1,000 (single) or $2,000 (joint).
๐ 3. Car loan interest: The bill allows some taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 of annual interest on auto loans for new cars.
- Go deeper: More on what's in the bill.
๐ก A New York Times calculator asks 33 questions ("Are you a tipped worker?" ... "Are you a whaling captain or a fisher living in Alaska?") to help determine the bill's effect on your wallet across taxes, health care and energy (gift link).
3. ๐ America's nonstop party
Starting with America's 250th birthday celebration, President Trump is planning a years-long mega-celebration that puts him at the center of the world's biggest events, Axios' Natalie Daher writes.
- Why it matters: Trump's vision for the semiquincentennial goes beyond purely patriotic fare to showcase the country's military, economic and cultural power on a global stage.
His expansive vision for a nonstop American celebration includes the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, The Atlantic recently reported.
- Trump is floating additional programming like a "Great American State Fair," "Patriot Games" and a "Freedom Plane" inspired by the bicentennial-era "Freedom Train."
A New Year's Eve-style ball drop in Times Square has been discussed.

๐ฝ Trump's speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds last night served as the formal kickoff to the celebrations.
- The president soft-launched the nation's 250th this year with a rare military parade to honor the Army in D.C. The birthdays of more military branches will be recognized this fall.
๐ฅ Trump said last night his 250th-anniversary plans include a UFC fight on the grounds of the White House.
4. ๐ผ๏ธ How it started/How it's going

Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), the top Democrat on the House Rules Committee, waits on the marble stairway outside the House chamber before yesterday's vote on President Trump's signature bill.
- The painting he's sitting under: "Scene at the Signing of the Constitution," one of the most famous pieces of art in the Capitol.
5. ๐ฐ Mapped: Where tariffs hit hardest

Tariffs imposed by President Trump have generated tens of billions of dollars in revenue for the government โ but the burden falls far from equally on different states, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes.
- Why it matters: Who pays for tariffs is a long-settled issue โ American businesses do, to the tune of billions of dollars, especially in places like California and Texas.
๐งฎ By the numbers: From Jan. 1 to May 31 of this year, California faced a tariff impact of $11.3 billion, by far the highest in the country.
- Texas was a distant second at $6 billion, followed by Michigan at $3.3 billion.
6. โก White House plans Iran talks next week

White House envoy Steve Witkoff is planning to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear talks, two sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios' Barak Ravid.
- Why it matters: The sources said a final date hasn't been set. But if it happens, it would mark the first direct talks since President Trump ordered an unprecedented military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities last month.
Behind the scenes: Witkoff and Araghchi have been in direct contact during and since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, which ended in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, according to the sources.
- Omani and Qatari officials have also been involved in mediating.
- In the immediate aftermath of the war, the Iranians were reluctant to engage with the U.S., but that position has gradually softened.
๐ What to watch: A key issue in any future talks will be Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which includes 400 kilograms enriched to 60%.
- Israeli and U.S. officials say the material is currently "sealed off from the outside world" inside the three nuclear sites attacked during the joint strikes.
7. ๐ NYC's fireworks setup

Workers on Staten Island prepare for the Macy's Fourth of July fireworks show โย the nation's largest โ in New York City last week.
- The light show (NBC and Peacock, 8-10 p.m. ET) will include more than 80,000 shells in 30 vibrant colors and offer state-of-the-art projection mapping on the Brooklyn Bridge.

8. ๐ Covering America: Small sports mania
One growing city in Alabama is making a push to be a major player for some of America's most niche sports, Axios Huntsville's Derek Lacey writes.
- Why it matters: Across the country, small and midsize cities such as Huntsville, Alabama, are investing big in small sports to attract all-important tourism dollars.
Bigger cities can build arenas and stadiums to try and attract major sports teams and huge concerts. Smaller ones pick their spots more carefully.
- Huntsville is spending nearly $45 million on an expansion of its Ice Sports Center that includes a new curling facility โ an unusual move for the South. The CEO of USA Curling said it could start getting national events as soon as the doors open.
- In the last year, the city has touted hosting the USA Table Tennis National Championships and big fishing tournaments.
- It has been a mainstay in the disc golf world since before the sport was cool.
๐ Between the lines: All of those more niche sports are gaining traction.
- Curling gets a big boost after every Winter Olympics.
- Table tennis has a new professional league that's attempting to take advantage of a wave of fascination with the sport, Axios Atlanta's Thomas Wheatley writes.
- Disc golf has skyrocketed in popularity in recent years.
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