Axios AM
October 02, 2024
1 big thing: Israel's payback plans
Israeli officials staring down all-out regional war tell us they'll launch a "significant retaliation" to yesterday's massive missile attack within days, targeting oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic sites, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.
- Why it matters: Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening up a new and far more dangerous front in the war that has engulfed the Middle East.
🖼️ The big picture: Iran threatened that if Israel responds with force to the nearly 200 missiles it launched yesterday, it will attack again.
- If that happens, Israeli officials say all options will be on the table — including strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
- "We have a big question mark about how the Iranians are going to respond to an attack," an Israeli official said. "But we take into consideration the possibility that they would go all in, which will be a whole different ball game."
Many Israeli officials point to Iran's oil facilities as a likely target. But some say targeted assassinations and taking out Iran's air defense systems are also possibilities.
- The Israeli response could include airstrikes from fighter jets — as well as clandestine operations similar to the one that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two months ago.
🔎 Zoom in: The Israeli security cabinet convened at an underground government bunker inside a mountain near Jerusalem just as the first wave of Iranian ballistic missiles made its way toward Israel.
- Many of the missiles were intercepted by Israeli and U.S. missile defense systems.
- Those that weren't intercepted mostly hit open areas near an air force base in southern Israel, the Mossad headquarters and a military intelligence base north of Tel Aviv.
At the top of the security cabinet meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled Israel's next move.
- "The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies," Netanyahu said.
- "They will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: Whoever attacks us, we will attack him."
👀 Behind the scenes: A senior Israeli official told Axios one reason a decision wasn't reached at the cabinet meeting was that Israeli officials wanted to consult with the Biden administration.
- Another Iranian attack in response to an Israeli retaliation would require defensive cooperation with U.S. Central Command, more munitions for the Israeli air force and potentially other kinds of U.S. operational support, the Israeli official said.
2. 🤝 America's debate time machine
For 90 minutes, American politics was unrecognizable: Two candidates, diametrically opposed on the issues, engaging in a friendly, respectful, substantive debate about the future of a country they love, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.
- To cap it off: a handshake and some light chit-chat between spouses.
Why it matters: For all the nasty attacks exchanged on the campaign trail, the VP debate between Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz offered a rare lesson in civility — a reminder of what politics used to be, and what it hopefully still can be.
- At least a half-dozen times, Vance and Walz surprised viewers by expressing agreement on America's root problems — and more remarkably, on the potential solutions.
- As CBS News' John Dickerson put it as he began the network's postgame analysis: "It was a cordial debate, of the kind that people mostly say they want."
Zoom in: In one especially poignant exchange on gun violence, Walz shared that his teenage son had personally witnessed a shooting at a community center.
- "I 100% believe Sen. Vance hates [gun violence]. It's abhorrent and it breaks your heart," Walz said, turning to his opponent.
- Vance responded: "Tim, first of all, I didn't know that your 17-year-old witnessed a shooting. And I'm sorry about that and I hope he's doing OK. Christ have mercy, it is awful."
Story continues below.
3. 🎤 5 debate takeaways
1. JD Vance wins style points. It was clear from the jump that Vance, a 40-year-old Yale-educated senator who relishes adversarial interviews, would be a far slicker, more polished debater than Tim Walz, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.
- It's one of the main reasons former President Trump chose Vance — and it paid off, as he repeatedly hammered Walz with messages that Donald Trump was unable to articulate in his debate against Vice President Harris.
- Vance's camp tells us he did only four prep sessions: two hour-long Zoom murder boards, one in-person murder-board session and one formal mock debate. N.Y. Times columnist Ross Douthat declared: "Vance's Dominant Debate Performance Shows Why He's Trump's Running Mate" (gift link).
2. Vance launders Trump's positions — and his own. With his slick debating style, Vance made a forceful, intellectual case for Trumpism that — like his running mate — sometimes relied on falsehoods and mischaracterizations.
- Vance falsely claimed Trump "salvaged" the Affordable Care Act. In fact, the former president spent much of his first term trying to repeal Obamacare.
3. Walz's "knucklehead" moment. Walz, who acknowledged to Harris during the VP vetting process that he wasn't a strong debater, got off to a nervous and rocky start — often speaking so fast that his answers devolved into word salad.
- In his worst moment of the night, Walz struggled to answer a question about why he had claimed to be in Hong Kong during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests — eventually saying he "misspoke."
- Still, the Harris campaign sees Walz's unfiltered, everyman demeanor as core to his appeal: "I'm a knucklehead at times," the former high school teacher admitted.
- MSNBC's Jen Psaki tweeted: "More Walz talking directly to people at home — like it."
4. Trump screams from sidelines. Trump seemed intent on counter-programming his own running mate's big night, reminding America who tops the ticket with live, all-caps screeds on Truth Social throughout the debate.
5. Walz roasts Vance on Jan. 6. In a night that largely belonged to Vance, Walz finished strong — and gave Democrats a viral clip for their pro-democracy message — by asking his opponent whether Trump lost the 2020 election.
- "Tim, I'm focused on the future," Vance responded.
- "That is a damning non-answer," Walz shot back, before twisting the knife with a reference to Vance's predecessor: "Mike Pence made that decision to certify that election. That's why Mike Pence isn't on this stage."
4. 🤖 Striking port workers fight robots
Striking dockworkers are trying to keep the robots from taking their jobs — demanding that any new contract forbid automation at the East and Gulf coast ports, Axios' Emily Peck writes.
Why it matters: The future is tough to fend off forever. The ports responsible for moving goods around the world have used tech to get more efficient and productive for decades.
"[W]e want absolute airtight language that there will be no automation or semi-automation," International Longshoremen's Association president Harold Daggett said in a statement yesterday — the first day of the strike involving about 45,000 dockworkers.
5. 👑 Most powerful women in business
6. ✡️ High Holy Days start tonight
American Jews are contending with a record number of antisemitic hate crimes as they prepare to observe the High Holy Days and mark the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks in Israel, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.
- Why it matters: Rising hate crimes, expanding military conflict in the Middle East and inflammatory rhetoric in the presidential election are creating more anxiety in Jewish communities, as synagogues and religious schools beef up security and some households downplay celebrations.
Rosh Hashanah, a two-day holiday that marks the Jewish New Year, starts tonight at sundown.
- The 10-day Jewish High Holy Days ends with Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, after nightfall on Saturday, Oct. 12.
The big picture: Anti-Jewish hate crimes reported to police across 20 major cities in 2023 rose 48% from the previous year, per an analysis by the Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism, at Cal State San Bernardino.
- Rabbi Rick Jacobs, president of the Union for Reform Judaism, tells AP it's "an impossible moment" for rabbis ministering to their congregations.
7. ⏱️ Trump rejects "60 Minutes"
Former President Trump turned down a "60 Minutes" offer of back-to-back conversations with both presidential nominees, with his campaign saying he didn't want interruptions for fact checks.
- Vice President Harris will appear on the show, airing Oct. 7. "60 Minutes," the highest-rated news program on TV, says the invitation to Trump stands.
Why it matters: With Trump saying it's "too late" for another debate with Harris, the show could have been a final chance for both candidates to reach a mass audience, 29 days before Election Day.
👓 Between the lines: CBS says Trump accepted an interview with Scott Pelley, then pulled out. Steven Cheung, the Trump campaign communications director, told me:
- "There were discussions but nothing was ever scheduled or locked in. They insisted on cutting out of the interview to do fact-checking."
The Trump campaign said CBS wouldn't give assurances the candidates would be fact-checked equally. CBS wouldn't comment on that.
- Bill Whitaker is scheduled to interview Harris on the trail this week. Tim Walz will participate.
8. 🥊 1 fun thing: RockyFest
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